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Business——Techno wars
商業(yè)：“鐵克諾” 之戰(zhàn)
An earlier sunny mood about technology and innovation has given way to pessimism.
在技術(shù)與創(chuàng)新領(lǐng)域，悲觀主義取代了先前的樂(lè)觀態(tài)度
The most striking battle in modern business pits the techno-optimists against the techno-pessimists.
在現(xiàn)代商業(yè)中，高新技術(shù)樂(lè)觀派與悲觀派構(gòu)成了激烈對(duì)峙的兩大陣營(yíng)。
The first group argues that the world is in the middle of a technology-driven renaissance.
樂(lè)觀主義者聲稱(chēng)，世界正處于技術(shù)驅(qū)動(dòng)的復(fù)興中。
Tech CEOs compete with each other for superlatives.
各技術(shù)巨頭相互競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，力求推出最優(yōu)秀的產(chǎn)品。
Business professors say that our only problem will be what to do with the people when the machines become super-intelligent.
商學(xué)院教授則認(rèn)為，唯一需要擔(dān)心的是，當(dāng)機(jī)器發(fā)展為超級(jí)智能，人類(lèi)該如何應(yīng)對(duì)。
The pessimists retort that this is froth: a few firms may be doing wonderfully but the economy is stuck.
悲觀主義者則反譏道，以上言論不過(guò)是高談弘論：雖然少部分公司的確運(yùn)行得不錯(cuò)，但經(jīng)濟(jì)已陷入停滯。
Larry Summers of Harvard University talks about secular stagnation.
哈佛大學(xué)的拉里·薩默斯就此提出了“長(zhǎng)期停滯”。
Tyler Cowen, of George Mason University, says that the American economy has eaten all the low-hanging fruits of modern history and got sick.
喬治梅森大學(xué)的泰勒·科文認(rèn)為，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已耗盡現(xiàn)代史上一切唾手可得的成果而趨于病態(tài)。
Until recently the prize for the most gloom-laden book on the modern economy has gone to Robert Gordon ofNorthwestern University.
唱衰現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)勢(shì)的問(wèn)鼎之作是1月出版的西北大學(xué)羅伯特·戈登寫(xiě)的。
In “The Rise and Fall of American Growth”, published in January, Mr. Gordon argues that the IT revolution is a minor diversion compared with the inventions that accompanied the second industrial one—electricity, motor cars and aeroplanes— which changed lives profoundly.
戈登在《美國(guó)興衰》一書(shū)中指出，第二次工業(yè)革命中，電力、汽車(chē)和飛機(jī)都曾給日常生活帶來(lái)翻天覆地的變化，而IT革命不過(guò)是小巫見(jiàn)大巫。
The current information upheaval, by contrast, is merely altering a narrow range of activities.
近年來(lái)，人們獲取信息的方式發(fā)生了劇變，但也僅僅是讓原本就為數(shù)不多的方式增添了些新花樣。
Now a new book, “The Innovation Illusion” by Fredrik Erixon and Bjorn Weigel, presents a still more pessimistic vision.
弗雷德里克·埃里克松和比約?恩格爾現(xiàn)發(fā)行了他們的新書(shū)《創(chuàng)新的假象》，書(shū)中表達(dá)了更為悲觀的看法。
Messrs Erixon and Weigel write that the very engine of capitalist growth, the creative destruction described by Joseph Schumpeter, is kaput.
他們?cè)跁?shū)中寫(xiě)道，資本主義發(fā)展的“核心引擎”(約瑟夫·熊彼特曾稱(chēng)其為創(chuàng)造性破壞)已運(yùn)作失常。
Aside from a handful of stars such as Google and Amazon, they point out, capitalism is ageing fast.
他們指出，除了如谷歌和亞馬遜等少數(shù)精英公司仍發(fā)展良好，資本主義整體已迅速老化。
Europe’s 100 most valuable firms were founded more than 40 years ago.
縱觀歐洲100家大公司，絕大部分都建立在40年前。
Even America, which is more entrepreneurial, is succumbing to middle-aged spread.
即使是更具創(chuàng)業(yè)精神的美國(guó)也難以抵擋公司中年化現(xiàn)象的蔓延。
The proportion of mature firms, or those 11 years old or more, rose from a third of all firms in 1987 to almost half in 2012, and the number of startups fell between 2001 and 2011.
從1981到2012年間，資深公司(已建立11年或更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間)由占公司總數(shù)的1/3上升到占一半左右，而2001到2011年間，新公司數(shù)量則一直下降。
People who extol free markets often blame such stagnation on excessive regulation.
自由市場(chǎng)的支持者經(jīng)常把這種經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯歸咎于政府管制過(guò)多。
That has certainly played its part.
這種說(shuō)法的確有一定道理。
But the authors argue that stagnation has most to do with the structure of capitalism itself.
然而，《創(chuàng)新的假象》的作者則認(rèn)為，這種停滯與資本主義自身的結(jié)構(gòu)有更大關(guān)系。
Companies are no longer actually owned by adventurous capitalists but by giant institutions such as the Vanguard Group (with more than $3 trillion under management) which constantly buy and sell slivers of ownership for anonymous investors.
事實(shí)上，公司已不再由具冒險(xiǎn)精神的資本家控制，而是由像先鋒集團(tuán)(the Vanguard Group)這種大型機(jī)構(gòu)掌控。該公司資產(chǎn)逾3萬(wàn)億美元，不斷為匿名投資者購(gòu)買(mǎi)和出售所有權(quán)。
These institutions are more interested in predictable returns than in enterprise.
比起商業(yè)發(fā)展，他們更看重可預(yù)測(cè)回報(bào)。
It is not all Mark Zuckerbergs at the top, the authors posit.
作者認(rèn)為并非所有高層都像馬克·扎克伯格一樣。
The big firms are answering the call for predictability by hiring corporate bureaucrats.
多數(shù)大公司都雇傭企業(yè)管理者來(lái)滿足投資者對(duì)可預(yù)測(cè)性的渴求。
These people shy away from risky investments in new technology.
這些企業(yè)管理者往往會(huì)避免對(duì)新技術(shù)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。
After rising relentlessly as a share of GDP in 1950-2000, investment in IT began declining in the early 2000s.
在1950到2000年間，IT行業(yè)投資曾作為GDP的一部分持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，但于2000年早期開(kāi)始衰退。
Instead of shaking up markets, bureaucratic CEOs focus on squeezing the most out of their sunk costs and fight to defend niches.
比起顛覆市場(chǎng)，官僚型CEO更注重于盡可能壓縮沉沒(méi)成本和捍衛(wèi)利基市場(chǎng)。
They hoard cash, buy back their firms’ shares and reinforce their positions by merging with former rivals.
他們通過(guò)儲(chǔ)備現(xiàn)金，回購(gòu)自家公司股份以及與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手合并來(lái)鞏固公司的市場(chǎng)地位。
The gloomsters’ case is true to some extent but it is overstated.
這些悲觀人士的言論在一定程度上是對(duì)的，但還是言過(guò)其實(shí)了。
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