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Russia and the West——Cold climate
俄羅斯和西方：關(guān)系變得冷淡
As relations with Europe and America freeze over, Vladimir Putin looks to China
隨著與歐美關(guān)系的凍結(jié)，弗拉基米爾·普京寄望于中國
WHEN Vladimir Putin plays host to Barack Obama and other world leaders at the G20 summit in St Petersburg next week, mutual resentment and dislike will be ill-concealed. The American president recently likened the Russian leader's body language to that of a “bored kid in the back of the classroom”. Mr. Obama has cancelled a planned bilateral meeting in Moscow, choosing to visit Sweden instead.
在下周圣彼得堡舉行的G20峰會上，弗拉基米爾·普金作為東道主接待奧巴馬和其它國家的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，相互間的怨恨與厭惡將一觸即發(fā)。美國總統(tǒng)最近將俄羅斯領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的身體語言比作為 “坐在教室后面的無聊孩子”。奧巴馬已經(jīng)取消了原計(jì)劃在莫斯科舉行雙邊會談，轉(zhuǎn)而拜訪瑞典。
The last straw was Russia's sheltering of Edward Snowden, a fugitive American spook. But the spat over that only crystallized something apparent since Mr Putin returned to the Kremlin in2012: that the “reset”, launched with much fanfare in 2009, is not just dying, but dead.
對愛德華·斯諾登(一名逃亡的美國特工)而言，俄國的庇護(hù)是他最后一根救命稻草。但是，自從2012年普京回到克里姆林宮之后，那些爭執(zhí)只是將一些表面上的東西具體化罷了： 一改當(dāng)初大肆宣揚(yáng)的2009俄美關(guān)系“重啟計(jì)劃”正在死亡的說話，直接宣布該計(jì)劃已死亡。
Dmitry Trenin of the Moscow Carnegie Centre, a think-tank, says the aborted summit marks the end of a 25-year cycle which started in Mikhail Gorbachev's glory days. Now the assumption of shared goals and values is over. Russia does not pretend to be moving towards the West. Rather than responding to Western criticism with irritated pleas for patience and understanding of national specifics, it simply ignores it.
莫斯科卡內(nèi)基中心的智囊團(tuán)的成員之一的，德米特里·特列寧說，峰會的夭折標(biāo)志著從戈?duì)柊蛦谭蚪y(tǒng)治開始的輝煌歲月在25年后迎來了終結(jié)?，F(xiàn)在假設(shè)的共同目標(biāo)和價值觀已經(jīng)結(jié)束了。俄羅斯也不假裝要向西方靠攏。俄羅斯僅僅是采取了忽略手段，而不是對西方國家要求耐心并理解國家具體事項(xiàng)的惱火請求的批判做出回應(yīng)。
An earlier crisis came with the Russia-Georgia war in 2008. But Mr. Obama revived the relationship, taking seriously Dmitry Medvedev, who stood in for Mr. Putin for four years. People still argue about whether Mr. Medvedev's affability was sincere, or a stunt.
一個早期危機(jī)隨著2008年俄羅斯與魯吉亞的戰(zhàn)爭打響。但奧巴馬為這段關(guān)系重新注入生機(jī)，重視起為普京工作了四年的梅德韋杰夫。人們?nèi)匀辉跔幷撁返马f杰夫是真心親民，還是在秀演技。
The frost started biting over Libya. Russia backed a UN resolution to protect civilian lives, but felt duped when this resulted in the military overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi. The image of Gaddafi's “revolting slaughter—not just medieval but primeval”, stayed with Mr. Putin. “No one should be allowed to employ the Libyan scenario in Syria,” he wrote in 2012.
兩國之間的冰霜是在攻擊利比亞時開始的。俄羅斯支持聯(lián)合國以保護(hù)平民生命的決議，但當(dāng)該決議導(dǎo)致軍隊(duì)推翻卡扎菲政權(quán)時，俄羅斯感到受騙。普金對卡扎菲的形象印象深刻“一場不亞于中世紀(jì)，可謂是來自原始社會的令人作嘔的屠宰”，留與普京。“不允許任何人在敘利亞重演利比亞的情節(jié)”他在2012年寫道。
Having convinced himself that the West was behind revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia, Mr. Putin also blamed America for a wave of protests in Moscow in December 2011: proof positive that enemies were at the Kremlin's gate. Mr Putin responded by attacking charities and campaign groups who have funding from abroad, branding them “foreign agents”.
說服自己相信西方仍支持烏克蘭和格魯吉亞的革命，普京還指責(zé)美國2011年12月在墨西哥引發(fā)的抗議浪潮：敵人在克里姆林宮的大門是鐵證如山。普京以攻擊慈善機(jī)構(gòu)和攻擊擁有海外融資的競選集團(tuán)來作為回應(yīng)，普京稱他們?yōu)?ldquo;外國特工”。
To shore up his core support, Mr. Putin has filled Russia's ideological vacuum with nationalism and anti-Americanism. The main thesis is of two conflicting civilizations, with the West exemplifying economic decline, international recklessness and moral depravity. Russia must shield itself from this harmful influence and preserve its own traditional values, based on Orthodoxy and past glory. This was behind a recent law against gay “propaganda”, and a ban on officials from having bank accounts and property abroad.
為了加固他的核心論據(jù)，普京以民族主義和反美主義填補(bǔ)了俄羅斯意識形態(tài)的空白。主要論點(diǎn)是兩個相互沖突的文明，隨著越來越明顯的西方經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，出現(xiàn)了國際性質(zhì)的魯莽行為和道德淪喪。俄羅斯必須保護(hù)自身免受這種有害的影響，并保持自己的基于東正教和過去輝煌歷史的傳統(tǒng)價值觀。這個聲明是在最近的一條抵制同性戀的法律，和禁止官員在國外擁有銀行賬戶和財(cái)產(chǎn)之后發(fā)布的。
With business, it is a different story. Even vehement anti-Westerners embrace big foreign companies as partners and investors (they also use them as lobbyists for their political interests in the West). This double-track approach is not new. Joseph Stalin said in 1934: “Those who seek a business relationship with us will always find our support. And those who try to attack our country will be dealt a deadly blow, to deter them from sticking their snouts into our Soviet backyard.”
隨著商業(yè)發(fā)展，這變成了一個與眾不同的故事。甚至一些激進(jìn)的反西主義者都接納外國大公司作為合作伙伴和投資者(把外國大公司作為他們在西方謀取政治利益的游說者)。這種雙軌的做法并不新鮮。斯大林在1934年說：“向我們尋求業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)系的國家總能得到我們的支持。那些試圖攻擊我們的國家將受到致命的打擊，我們將竭力阻止他們打我們蘇維埃的后院的主意。“
As an alternative to the West, Mr. Putin points to the East, hailing China's rise as a colossal chance to catch its “wind in the sails of our economy”. China and Russia, he has argued, each need the other to be strong and prosperous. Neither lectures the other on human rights. China sees Russia as a safe resource-base which would be strategically important in case of escalating tension between China and America. To prove the point, Xi Jinping, China's new leader, made Moscow his first port of call.
尋求西方的替代者，普金把目光轉(zhuǎn)向了中國，稱贊中國的崛起是一個極好的機(jī)會 “在經(jīng)濟(jì)市場乘風(fēng)破浪”。 他認(rèn)為，中國和俄羅斯，都需要對方的支持才能變得強(qiáng)大和繁榮。更不要說是在人權(quán)問題觀念方面尋求支持。中國將俄羅斯視作一個可靠的資源庫，在中國和美國之間的緊張局勢不斷升級的情況下，這將是具有重要戰(zhàn)略意義的。為了證明這一點(diǎn)，中國的新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人習(xí)近平，選擇莫斯科作為他的第一個停靠港。
On Syria, Russia has repeatedly wielded its UN security-council veto against sanctions and blocked international oversight of Syrian chemical weapons. But it does not seek a confrontation. Perhaps thanks to tough talk from Israel and other countries, it seems not to have delivered advanced air-defense systems to the regime there, or provided personnel to train Syrians. Igor Malashenko, a veteran observer of Russia-American relations, says that unlike the Soviet Union, Russia does not participate in big international affairs largely because it is not prepared to take responsibility for big decisions.
在敘利亞問題上，俄羅斯曾多次揮起聯(lián)合國安全安理會的否決權(quán)反對國際監(jiān)督對敘利亞化學(xué)武器的制裁和阻止。但它并不是要硬碰硬。也許要?dú)w功于來自以色列和其他國家的強(qiáng)硬言論，似乎沒有先進(jìn)的防空系統(tǒng)去支持政權(quán)交付，或提供有關(guān)人員去培訓(xùn)敘利亞人。俄羅斯和美國關(guān)系的老牌觀察員伊戈?duì)?middot;馬拉申科說，這與蘇聯(lián)的情況不同，俄羅斯不參與大型的國際事務(wù)在很大程度上是因?yàn)樗粶?zhǔn)備承擔(dān)重大決策的風(fēng)險。
But Russia has drawn a “red line” on the issue of Ukraine's association aGREement with the European Union. It has launched a fusillade of trade sanctions to press the case for its rival outfit, the Eurasian Economic Union. Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a periodical, says the main point is anchoring former Soviet republics in Russia's sphere of influence rather than promoting trade. (And having Ukraine in the customs union would be “a guaranteed headache”, like Britain in the EU, he adds.)
但俄羅斯在烏克蘭與歐盟聯(lián)合協(xié)議問題上已劃下“紅色警戒線”。為了打擊它的競爭對手歐亞經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)盟俄羅斯雙管齊下的采用了貿(mào)易制裁，它已經(jīng)推出了一個赤裸裸的貿(mào)易制裁?！度蚴聞?wù)中的俄羅斯》期刊的編輯費(fèi)奧多爾表示，重點(diǎn)在于瞄準(zhǔn)前蘇維埃政權(quán)在當(dāng)今俄羅斯勢力范圍內(nèi)的影響，而不是促進(jìn)貿(mào)易。(把烏克蘭納入海關(guān)聯(lián)盟毫無疑問將是個麻煩，就像英國在歐盟中一樣，他補(bǔ)充說。)
But bullying Ukraine is likely to alienate it further and will stoke tension with the EU, which like America has been appalled by Russia's anti-gay law. Germany, once Russia's cheerleader, is now its most vocal critic. That will be bad for business (the EU is by far Russia's biggest trading partner). It may also doom the regime's aim, stoked by self-interest, of persuading the EU to offer visa-free entry for holders of official passports.
但欺負(fù)烏克蘭可能進(jìn)一步疏遠(yuǎn)兩者之間的關(guān)系并使與歐盟的局勢變得更緊張，就像美國對俄羅斯的反同性戀的法律感到震驚。曾經(jīng)以俄國為首的德國如今成為了批判的最大聲，這些情況都將阻礙商務(wù)的發(fā)展(歐盟是俄羅斯迄今為止最大的貿(mào)易伙伴)。受到利己主義的煽動，說服歐盟提供公務(wù)護(hù)照持有人免簽證入境也可能使政權(quán)最初目的走向滅亡。
Whatever the Kremlin says, members of Russia's educated and affluent middle class continue to look West. Russia's rulers’ greatest weakness is the lack of anything positive that could attract their own people or outsiders. For all his talk of outfitting Russia for a changing world, Mr. Putin chiefly conveys a deep fear of disturbing the fragile status quo. That is pushing the country backwards.
無論克里姆林宮怎么說，俄羅斯受過教育和富裕的中產(chǎn)階級成員仍然尋找西方支持。俄羅斯的統(tǒng)治者最大的弱點(diǎn)是沒有正面力量去吸引自己人或外人。為了增強(qiáng)俄羅斯的實(shí)力以適應(yīng)這個無時不在變化的世界，普京主要傳達(dá)了怕擾亂脆弱現(xiàn)狀的恐懼。這會導(dǎo)致國家的后退。
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