Chain reaction
“THE great manufacturers in the Yorkshire and Lancashire districts tell me that, under modern conditions, they have got into the habit of laying in supply not for a period of two to five months but they are dependent week by week on the importation of the raw material.” So Sir George Parkin described the alarming business practices found in Britain at the dawn of the 20th century. As a leader of the Imperial Federation League, he sought to replace the British empire with a bigger group of trading partners, so as to guarantee supplies. A hundred years on, Sir George would have marvelled at globalisation, but been aghast that today’s manufacturers measure their inventories in only a few hours of production.
The great manufacturers now have amazingly lean operations. They have outsourced business to contractors that can do the work more efficiently, often in places where wages are lower. A huge logistics industry has sprung up to move stuff around the world at dazzling speed.
Contain erisation has slashed the cost of shipping. Express airfreight has made overnight delivery possible to most places on earth. Moreover, such services are within the grasp not just of the supply departments of giant multinationals but also of anyone trading on eBay from the spare bedroom.
The logistics business is one of the marvels of commerce, but it is not without its risks. Supply chains have become ever more complex and extended. Some great manufacturers and great service companies may have become too lean in their relentless drive to reduce costs, outsourcing not just their noncore activities but essential ones too. If one link of a company’s supply chain snaps, the consequences can be grave. Ericsson and Nokia found this out when they both relied on the same supplier for a special chip in their mobile phones. After the chipmaker’s factory was hit by lightning, Nokia swiftly locked up all the alternative supplies whereas Ericsson suffered a severe parts shortage and later quit making handsets on its own.
A company’s best protection from its own supply chain is to expect failure, not to hide from it. Toyota last year narrowly escaped a parts shortage when an American supplier went bankrupt. The carmaker has now introduced an earlywarning system in Europe to try to detect any looming problems with suppliers before they bring production lines to a halt.
The good news is that many companies are now trying to identify the choke points and weak links in their supply chains. What about Sir George’s concern—the wider threat to national economies? With so many people worrying about oil supplies and a birdflu pandemic, the prospect of supply chains collapsing around the world can seem a scary idea.
It shouldn’t be. There are a few industries where it makes sense for governments to keep some emergency stocks of a few essentials such as energy, munitions and medicines. But the logistical apocalypse is not a good way for politicians to think about everyday life, let alone to start interfering in markets.
Natural disasters are not, in fact, a common cause of supplychain disruptions. Most are the result of humdrum internal problems, like bad planning or the choice of an unreliable subcontractor. That can be terrible for a particular company, but hardly poses a threat to society at large. After all, if Ericsson and Nokia cannot supply you with a mobile phone, Samsung would be only too happy to get one to you tomorrow.
aghast［E5^B:st］
a.驚駭?shù)? 嚇呆的
grasp［grB:sp］
v./n. ①抓住，抓緊；②掌握，領(lǐng)會(huì)
［真題例句］ Intelligence seeks to grasp (②), manipulate, reorder, and adjust, while intellect examines, ponders, wonders, theorizes, criticizes and imagines.［2004年閱讀4］
［例句精譯］ 智力尋求的是理解、運(yùn)用、整合和調(diào)節(jié)，而才學(xué)則是審視、思考、探究、形成理論、批判和想像。
chain［tFein］
n.鏈（條）；［pl.］鐐銬；一連串，一系列，連鎖；v.用鏈條拴住
grave［greiv］
n.墳?zāi)?；a.嚴(yán)肅的，莊重的
［真題例句］ Lots of Americans bought that nonsense, and over three decades, some 10 million smokers went to early graves (n.).［2005年閱讀2］
［例句精譯］ 竟然有許多美國(guó)人買(mǎi)這些謬論的帳，30年來(lái)，大約有一千萬(wàn)煙民早早就進(jìn)了墳?zāi)埂?BR> pandemic［pAn5demik］
a.全國(guó)流行的
interfere［7intE5fiE］
v.①（in）干涉，干預(yù)；②（with）妨礙，打擾
［真題例句］ It also means that governments are increasingly compelled to interfere (①) in these sectors in order to step up production and ensure that it is utilized to the best advantage.［2000年翻譯］
［例句精譯］ 這也意味著：政府不得不逐漸加大對(duì)這些部門(mén)的干預(yù)力度，以便提高生產(chǎn)率，確保其發(fā)揮效益。
［真題例句］ The words used by the speaker may (44：stir up) unfavorable reactions in the listener (45：which) interfere (②) with his comprehension; hence, the transmissionreception system breaks down .［1994年完形］
［例句精譯］ 說(shuō)話的人所采用的言語(yǔ)可能激起了聽(tīng)者不愉快的反應(yīng)，這種反應(yīng)阻止了他的進(jìn)一步理解；因此，傳輸接收系統(tǒng)就終止了。
internal［in5tE:nl］
a.①內(nèi)部的，內(nèi)的；②國(guó)內(nèi)的，內(nèi)政的
［真題例句］ (72) Interest in historical methods has arisen less through external challenge to the validity of history as an intellectual discipline and more from internal (①) quarrels among historians themselves.［1999年翻譯］
［例句精譯］ （72）人們之所以關(guān)注歷史研究的方法論，主要是因?yàn)槭穼W(xué)界內(nèi)部意見(jiàn)不一，其次是因?yàn)橥饨绮⒉徽J(rèn)為歷史是一門(mén)學(xué)問(wèn)。
雖然國(guó)際化的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)已有久遠(yuǎn)的歷史，但是經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)全球化卻是一個(gè)嶄新的現(xiàn)象。如今，全球工業(yè)生產(chǎn)成為一個(gè)由許多跨越國(guó)境的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)環(huán)節(jié)內(nèi)在地聯(lián)結(jié)起來(lái)的過(guò)程。而物流業(yè)在這里面起了十分重要的作用。物流業(yè)是為保證貨物在生產(chǎn)過(guò)程中移動(dòng)迅速，周轉(zhuǎn)期短，交貨準(zhǔn)時(shí)可靠而提供的服務(wù)。
連鎖反應(yīng)
20世紀(jì)初期，英國(guó)的George Park先生曾經(jīng)有過(guò)這樣的商業(yè)情景描述：約克夏郡和蘭開(kāi)夏郡的大制造商們告訴我，在現(xiàn)在的條件下，他們已經(jīng)養(yǎng)成了以周為周期采購(gòu)原材料的習(xí)慣，而不是像原來(lái)那樣以25個(gè)月作為原材料采購(gòu)周期。作為IFL（皇家聯(lián)盟集團(tuán)）的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，他尋求在大英帝國(guó)的基礎(chǔ)上建立一個(gè)更加廣泛的貿(mào)易伙伴聯(lián)盟，以保障供應(yīng)。一百年過(guò)去了，如果George先生還活著，他在驚嘆全球化的同時(shí)，必然更加震驚于當(dāng)今的制造商僅在生產(chǎn)前幾個(gè)小時(shí)完成庫(kù)存準(zhǔn)備工作這個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)。
當(dāng)今大制造商的運(yùn)作模式都非常簡(jiǎn)單化。他們將很多工作外包給具有勞動(dòng)力成本優(yōu)勢(shì)且更有效率的承包商。龐大的物流產(chǎn)業(yè)就是在這樣的背景下，以令人震驚的速度在全球運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)開(kāi)來(lái)。
集裝箱運(yùn)輸大大降低了運(yùn)輸成本，航空特快可以使地球上大多數(shù)地點(diǎn)的貨物在一夜間到達(dá)。更令人震驚的是，這些服務(wù)并不是大型跨國(guó)企業(yè)所獨(dú)享的，每個(gè)人都可以在自己的臥室通過(guò)ebay這樣的交易平臺(tái)來(lái)獲得這種服務(wù)?！ ?BR> 物流業(yè)的確是一個(gè)商業(yè)奇跡，但它并非沒(méi)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。供應(yīng)鏈變得更加復(fù)雜和冗長(zhǎng)。有些大的制造商和服務(wù)供應(yīng)商熱衷于降低成本，不僅把非核心業(yè)務(wù)外包，而且連核心業(yè)務(wù)也不放過(guò)。如果企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈的一個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題，后果可能是非常嚴(yán)重的。愛(ài)立信和諾基亞曾經(jīng)依賴于一個(gè)相同的芯片供應(yīng)商來(lái)生產(chǎn)手機(jī)中一種特別的芯片。當(dāng)這個(gè)芯片廠由于受到閃電襲擊而意外停產(chǎn)時(shí)，諾基亞很快鎖定了替代供應(yīng)商，而愛(ài)立信則受到嚴(yán)重?fù)p失，并在不久后放棄了手機(jī)的獨(dú)立生產(chǎn)。
企業(yè)保護(hù)供應(yīng)鏈的辦法就是直面問(wèn)題，而不是回避問(wèn)題。去年，豐田汽車(chē)就險(xiǎn)些因?yàn)橐患颐绹?guó)供應(yīng)商的破產(chǎn)而遭受打擊，不過(guò)目前豐田已經(jīng)在歐洲建立了一個(gè)早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，以檢查任何可能引起停產(chǎn)的供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題。
好的一面是現(xiàn)在很多企業(yè)都已經(jīng)開(kāi)始重視供應(yīng)鏈中有可能發(fā)生問(wèn)題的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)。但是George先生的擔(dān)心，即對(duì)整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的威脅，會(huì)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)呢？隨著石油供應(yīng)和禽流感疫情的傳播，供應(yīng)鏈崩潰的設(shè)想還是很令人恐慌的。
其實(shí)沒(méi)必要擔(dān)心這些。對(duì)于政府來(lái)說(shuō)，只有少數(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)需要進(jìn)行應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備，包括能源，軍用物資和醫(yī)藥。但是對(duì)物流行業(yè)，則完全沒(méi)必要日夜擔(dān)心，更不必干預(yù)其市場(chǎng)運(yùn)作。
實(shí)際上，自然災(zāi)害并不是供應(yīng)鏈斷裂的常見(jiàn)原因。很多情況下，意外都是由于規(guī)劃失誤和選擇了不可靠的分包商等內(nèi)部原因造成的。這對(duì)于企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)也許是災(zāi)難性的，但不會(huì)對(duì)整個(gè)社會(huì)構(gòu)成威脅。畢竟，如果愛(ài)立信和諾基亞不生產(chǎn)手機(jī)了，三星還是會(huì)很樂(lè)于為您效勞的。
“THE great manufacturers in the Yorkshire and Lancashire districts tell me that, under modern conditions, they have got into the habit of laying in supply not for a period of two to five months but they are dependent week by week on the importation of the raw material.” So Sir George Parkin described the alarming business practices found in Britain at the dawn of the 20th century. As a leader of the Imperial Federation League, he sought to replace the British empire with a bigger group of trading partners, so as to guarantee supplies. A hundred years on, Sir George would have marvelled at globalisation, but been aghast that today’s manufacturers measure their inventories in only a few hours of production.
The great manufacturers now have amazingly lean operations. They have outsourced business to contractors that can do the work more efficiently, often in places where wages are lower. A huge logistics industry has sprung up to move stuff around the world at dazzling speed.
Contain erisation has slashed the cost of shipping. Express airfreight has made overnight delivery possible to most places on earth. Moreover, such services are within the grasp not just of the supply departments of giant multinationals but also of anyone trading on eBay from the spare bedroom.
The logistics business is one of the marvels of commerce, but it is not without its risks. Supply chains have become ever more complex and extended. Some great manufacturers and great service companies may have become too lean in their relentless drive to reduce costs, outsourcing not just their noncore activities but essential ones too. If one link of a company’s supply chain snaps, the consequences can be grave. Ericsson and Nokia found this out when they both relied on the same supplier for a special chip in their mobile phones. After the chipmaker’s factory was hit by lightning, Nokia swiftly locked up all the alternative supplies whereas Ericsson suffered a severe parts shortage and later quit making handsets on its own.
A company’s best protection from its own supply chain is to expect failure, not to hide from it. Toyota last year narrowly escaped a parts shortage when an American supplier went bankrupt. The carmaker has now introduced an earlywarning system in Europe to try to detect any looming problems with suppliers before they bring production lines to a halt.
The good news is that many companies are now trying to identify the choke points and weak links in their supply chains. What about Sir George’s concern—the wider threat to national economies? With so many people worrying about oil supplies and a birdflu pandemic, the prospect of supply chains collapsing around the world can seem a scary idea.
It shouldn’t be. There are a few industries where it makes sense for governments to keep some emergency stocks of a few essentials such as energy, munitions and medicines. But the logistical apocalypse is not a good way for politicians to think about everyday life, let alone to start interfering in markets.
Natural disasters are not, in fact, a common cause of supplychain disruptions. Most are the result of humdrum internal problems, like bad planning or the choice of an unreliable subcontractor. That can be terrible for a particular company, but hardly poses a threat to society at large. After all, if Ericsson and Nokia cannot supply you with a mobile phone, Samsung would be only too happy to get one to you tomorrow.
aghast［E5^B:st］
a.驚駭?shù)? 嚇呆的
grasp［grB:sp］
v./n. ①抓住，抓緊；②掌握，領(lǐng)會(huì)
［真題例句］ Intelligence seeks to grasp (②), manipulate, reorder, and adjust, while intellect examines, ponders, wonders, theorizes, criticizes and imagines.［2004年閱讀4］
［例句精譯］ 智力尋求的是理解、運(yùn)用、整合和調(diào)節(jié)，而才學(xué)則是審視、思考、探究、形成理論、批判和想像。
chain［tFein］
n.鏈（條）；［pl.］鐐銬；一連串，一系列，連鎖；v.用鏈條拴住
grave［greiv］
n.墳?zāi)?；a.嚴(yán)肅的，莊重的
［真題例句］ Lots of Americans bought that nonsense, and over three decades, some 10 million smokers went to early graves (n.).［2005年閱讀2］
［例句精譯］ 竟然有許多美國(guó)人買(mǎi)這些謬論的帳，30年來(lái)，大約有一千萬(wàn)煙民早早就進(jìn)了墳?zāi)埂?BR> pandemic［pAn5demik］
a.全國(guó)流行的
interfere［7intE5fiE］
v.①（in）干涉，干預(yù)；②（with）妨礙，打擾
［真題例句］ It also means that governments are increasingly compelled to interfere (①) in these sectors in order to step up production and ensure that it is utilized to the best advantage.［2000年翻譯］
［例句精譯］ 這也意味著：政府不得不逐漸加大對(duì)這些部門(mén)的干預(yù)力度，以便提高生產(chǎn)率，確保其發(fā)揮效益。
［真題例句］ The words used by the speaker may (44：stir up) unfavorable reactions in the listener (45：which) interfere (②) with his comprehension; hence, the transmissionreception system breaks down .［1994年完形］
［例句精譯］ 說(shuō)話的人所采用的言語(yǔ)可能激起了聽(tīng)者不愉快的反應(yīng)，這種反應(yīng)阻止了他的進(jìn)一步理解；因此，傳輸接收系統(tǒng)就終止了。
internal［in5tE:nl］
a.①內(nèi)部的，內(nèi)的；②國(guó)內(nèi)的，內(nèi)政的
［真題例句］ (72) Interest in historical methods has arisen less through external challenge to the validity of history as an intellectual discipline and more from internal (①) quarrels among historians themselves.［1999年翻譯］
［例句精譯］ （72）人們之所以關(guān)注歷史研究的方法論，主要是因?yàn)槭穼W(xué)界內(nèi)部意見(jiàn)不一，其次是因?yàn)橥饨绮⒉徽J(rèn)為歷史是一門(mén)學(xué)問(wèn)。
雖然國(guó)際化的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)已有久遠(yuǎn)的歷史，但是經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)全球化卻是一個(gè)嶄新的現(xiàn)象。如今，全球工業(yè)生產(chǎn)成為一個(gè)由許多跨越國(guó)境的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)環(huán)節(jié)內(nèi)在地聯(lián)結(jié)起來(lái)的過(guò)程。而物流業(yè)在這里面起了十分重要的作用。物流業(yè)是為保證貨物在生產(chǎn)過(guò)程中移動(dòng)迅速，周轉(zhuǎn)期短，交貨準(zhǔn)時(shí)可靠而提供的服務(wù)。
連鎖反應(yīng)
20世紀(jì)初期，英國(guó)的George Park先生曾經(jīng)有過(guò)這樣的商業(yè)情景描述：約克夏郡和蘭開(kāi)夏郡的大制造商們告訴我，在現(xiàn)在的條件下，他們已經(jīng)養(yǎng)成了以周為周期采購(gòu)原材料的習(xí)慣，而不是像原來(lái)那樣以25個(gè)月作為原材料采購(gòu)周期。作為IFL（皇家聯(lián)盟集團(tuán)）的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，他尋求在大英帝國(guó)的基礎(chǔ)上建立一個(gè)更加廣泛的貿(mào)易伙伴聯(lián)盟，以保障供應(yīng)。一百年過(guò)去了，如果George先生還活著，他在驚嘆全球化的同時(shí)，必然更加震驚于當(dāng)今的制造商僅在生產(chǎn)前幾個(gè)小時(shí)完成庫(kù)存準(zhǔn)備工作這個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)。
當(dāng)今大制造商的運(yùn)作模式都非常簡(jiǎn)單化。他們將很多工作外包給具有勞動(dòng)力成本優(yōu)勢(shì)且更有效率的承包商。龐大的物流產(chǎn)業(yè)就是在這樣的背景下，以令人震驚的速度在全球運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)開(kāi)來(lái)。
集裝箱運(yùn)輸大大降低了運(yùn)輸成本，航空特快可以使地球上大多數(shù)地點(diǎn)的貨物在一夜間到達(dá)。更令人震驚的是，這些服務(wù)并不是大型跨國(guó)企業(yè)所獨(dú)享的，每個(gè)人都可以在自己的臥室通過(guò)ebay這樣的交易平臺(tái)來(lái)獲得這種服務(wù)?！ ?BR> 物流業(yè)的確是一個(gè)商業(yè)奇跡，但它并非沒(méi)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。供應(yīng)鏈變得更加復(fù)雜和冗長(zhǎng)。有些大的制造商和服務(wù)供應(yīng)商熱衷于降低成本，不僅把非核心業(yè)務(wù)外包，而且連核心業(yè)務(wù)也不放過(guò)。如果企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈的一個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題，后果可能是非常嚴(yán)重的。愛(ài)立信和諾基亞曾經(jīng)依賴于一個(gè)相同的芯片供應(yīng)商來(lái)生產(chǎn)手機(jī)中一種特別的芯片。當(dāng)這個(gè)芯片廠由于受到閃電襲擊而意外停產(chǎn)時(shí)，諾基亞很快鎖定了替代供應(yīng)商，而愛(ài)立信則受到嚴(yán)重?fù)p失，并在不久后放棄了手機(jī)的獨(dú)立生產(chǎn)。
企業(yè)保護(hù)供應(yīng)鏈的辦法就是直面問(wèn)題，而不是回避問(wèn)題。去年，豐田汽車(chē)就險(xiǎn)些因?yàn)橐患颐绹?guó)供應(yīng)商的破產(chǎn)而遭受打擊，不過(guò)目前豐田已經(jīng)在歐洲建立了一個(gè)早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，以檢查任何可能引起停產(chǎn)的供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題。
好的一面是現(xiàn)在很多企業(yè)都已經(jīng)開(kāi)始重視供應(yīng)鏈中有可能發(fā)生問(wèn)題的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)。但是George先生的擔(dān)心，即對(duì)整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的威脅，會(huì)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)呢？隨著石油供應(yīng)和禽流感疫情的傳播，供應(yīng)鏈崩潰的設(shè)想還是很令人恐慌的。
其實(shí)沒(méi)必要擔(dān)心這些。對(duì)于政府來(lái)說(shuō)，只有少數(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)需要進(jìn)行應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備，包括能源，軍用物資和醫(yī)藥。但是對(duì)物流行業(yè)，則完全沒(méi)必要日夜擔(dān)心，更不必干預(yù)其市場(chǎng)運(yùn)作。
實(shí)際上，自然災(zāi)害并不是供應(yīng)鏈斷裂的常見(jiàn)原因。很多情況下，意外都是由于規(guī)劃失誤和選擇了不可靠的分包商等內(nèi)部原因造成的。這對(duì)于企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)也許是災(zāi)難性的，但不會(huì)對(duì)整個(gè)社會(huì)構(gòu)成威脅。畢竟，如果愛(ài)立信和諾基亞不生產(chǎn)手機(jī)了，三星還是會(huì)很樂(lè)于為您效勞的。