Rising Rates to Worsen Subprime Mess
Interest Payments Set
To Grow on $362 Billion
In Mortgages in 2008
By RUTH SIMON
November 24, 2007
The subprime mortgage crisis is poised to get much worse.
次貸危機正朝更糟糕的局面發(fā)展.
Next year, interest rates are set to rise —— or "reset" —— on $362 billion worth of adjustable-rate subprime mortgages, according to data calculated by Bank of America Corp.
根據(jù)美洲銀行（Bank of America Corp）的計算數(shù)據(jù), 明年, 涉及3620億USD的可調(diào)整利率次貸的利率將被提高或調(diào)整.
While many accounts portray resetting rates as the big factor behind the surge in home-loan defaults and foreclosures this year, that isn't quite the case. Many of the subprime mortgages that have driven up the default rate went bad in their first year or so, well before their interest rate had a chance to go higher. Some of these mortgages went to speculators who planned to flip their houses, others to borrowers who had stretched too far to make their payments, and still others had some element of fraud.
在今年涌現(xiàn)的房貸無法償還和喪失抵押贖回權(quán)的背后,很多帳戶還被描述成調(diào)整利率是主要的工作, 這遠(yuǎn)非整個局面的全貌. 許多使房貸無法償還的次貸抵押在他們的第一年已經(jīng)變得更差,或者在不久前它們的利率已經(jīng)有機會變得更高. 這些次貸抵押一部分在準(zhǔn)備計劃拋售他們的房子的投機者手里, 一部分在已經(jīng)承受很高支付壓力的借貸人手中, 還有一部分具有欺詐因素.
Now the real crest of the reset wave is coming, and that promises more pain for borrowers, lenders and Wall Street. Already, many subprime lenders, who focused on people with poor credit, have gone bust. Big banks and investors who made subprime loans or bought securities backed by them are reporting billions of dollars in losses.
如今利率調(diào)整潮的真正高峰已經(jīng)來臨, 這勢必給借貸者,出貸方以及華爾街更大的痛苦.很多專注于給信用不足的人群發(fā)放次貸的出貸方已經(jīng)陷入瀕臨破產(chǎn)的邊緣. 許多發(fā)放次貸或者從這些出貸方購買投資證券的大銀行和投資者正在報告上十億美金的損失.
The reset peak will likely add to political pressure to help borrowers who can't afford to pay the higher interest rates. The housing slowdown is emerging as an issue in both the presidential and congressional races for 2008, and the Bush administration is pushing lenders to loosen terms and keep people from losing their homes.
調(diào)整高峰似正幫助不能支付更高利息的借貸者施加政治壓力. 對2008年的總統(tǒng)選舉和國會選舉來說, 住房供給減速將成為一個問題. 布什政府已經(jīng)逼出貸方放松貸款條件, 以保證人們不會失去他們的房子.
Banc of America Securities, a unit of the big Charlotte, N.C., bank, estimates that $85 billion in subprime mortgages are resetting during the current quarter, and the same amount will reset in the first quarter of 2008. That will rise to a peak of $101 billion in the second quarter. The estimates include loans packaged into securities and held in bank portfolios.
Charlotte, N.C., bank的分部Banc of America Securities 本季度將有850億USD的次貸利率需要調(diào)整. 2008年第一季度也將有同樣數(shù)量的次貸利率需要調(diào)整, 第二季度將達(dá)到峰值的1010億USD. 這個估計包括借貸打包證券和銀行持有的投資組合.
Larry Litton Jr., chief executive of Litton Loan Servicing, says resetting of adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, has recently emerged as a bigger driver of defaults. "The initial wave was largely driven by a higher frequency of fraudulent loans……and loose underwriting," says Mr. Litton, whose company services 340,000 loans nationwide. "A much larger percentage of the defaults we're seeing right now are the result of ARM resets."
Litton Loan Servicing的CEO Larry Litton Jr. 說, ARM利率的調(diào)整將是近期房貸無法償還比率變大的一個比較大的驅(qū)動因素.“ 最初的沖擊波將很大程度上來自更高頻率的貸款欺詐和寬松保險的驅(qū)動.” Litton 先生說. 他的公司在全國范圍內(nèi)服務(wù)340,000宗借貸.“我們現(xiàn)金看到的一個更大的房貸無法償還比率是ARM利率的調(diào)整的結(jié)果.”
More than half of the subprime delinquencies and foreclosures this year involved loans that hadn't yet reset, and thus were due to factors such as weak underwriting and falling home prices, according to Rod Dubitsky, an analyst with Credit Suisse.
根據(jù)瑞士信貸的分析師Rod Dubitsky先生的觀點,由于諸如較弱的保險和房價下跌等這些因素的影響,半數(shù)以上的次貸不良和喪失抵押贖回權(quán)的貸款利率沒有被調(diào)整.
The majority of subprime ARMs due to reset next year are so-called 2-28 loans, which carry a fixed rate for two years, then adjust annually thereafter. In a speech earlier this month, Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner explained how a typical 2-28 subprime loan issued in early 2007 might work. He said the interest rate on the loan would start at 7%, then jump to 9.5% after two years. For a typical borrower, that would add $350 to the monthly payment.
大多數(shù)明年需要調(diào)整的次級ARM即是所謂的2-28貸款.這些貸款的頭倆年利率是固定的,隨后每年將被調(diào)整. 根據(jù)本月初聯(lián)邦儲備官員Randall Kroszner先生的一篇演講, 他解釋了一個發(fā)行于20007年出的典型2-28貸款是如何運作的.他說,貸款利率最初設(shè)為7%,兩年后將跳升至9.5%. 對一個典型的借貸者來講,每月將增加還貸350USD.
.
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貸款條件中英文對照
年薪翻倍外資銀行新招一萬雇員
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Besides the $362 billion of subprime ARMs that are scheduled to reset during 2008, $152 billion of other loans with adjustable rates are set to reset, according to Banc of America Securities. The other resetting loans include "jumbo" mortgages of more than $417,000 and Alt-A loans, a category between prime and subprime. The latter category is the riskier, in part because it includes borrowers who provided little or no documentation of their income or assets.
根據(jù)Banc of America Securities的分析, 除了3620億次級ARM的利率將在2008年被調(diào)整, 另外還有1520億其他可變利率貸款也需要調(diào)整. 其他需要調(diào)整的貸款還包括: 超過417,000USD的 “jumbo”抵押貸款; ALT-A貸款, 一類介于初級和次級貸款之間的貸款. 更大的風(fēng)險是后者,因這部分包括了那些只能提供極少文件來證明他們的收入和財產(chǎn)的貸款者.
The number of borrowers facing higher payments isn't growing merely because the amount of loans with resets is higher. Another factor is that those with a looming reset now have a tougher time sidestepping it by refinancing or selling their home. "There is a large amount of borrowers who are in products that either no longer exist or that they no longer qualify for," says Banc of America Securities analyst Robert Lacoursiere.
面臨更高還款支付的借貸者的數(shù)量將不會純粹上升, 因為可調(diào)整貸款的數(shù)量更高.另一個因素是那些影子調(diào)整的貸款者只有很緊的時間來重新融資和賣掉房子來回避. “ 相當(dāng)多借貸者的房子將不復(fù)存在或者沒有資格擁有.” Banc of America Securities 的分析師Robert Lacoursiere先生說.
Falling home prices mean that many borrowers have little or no equity in their home, making it tougher for them to get out from under their loans.
房價下跌意味著許多借貸者擁有極少或甚至沒有的房屋資產(chǎn)價值. 這將加劇了他們走出貸款壓力的難度.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Sheila Bair, have been pressing lenders to modify terms in a sweeping way, rather than going through a time-consuming case-by-case evaluation that could end up pushing many people into foreclosure. Officials at the Federal Reserve and in the Bush administration have estimated that 150,000 mortgages are resetting a month.
財政部長Henry Paulson 和Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.的Sheila Bair女士 已經(jīng)大規(guī)模地給出貸方施加壓力改變貸款條件,而不用能使更多人陷入喪失抵押贖回權(quán)的消耗時間的逐案評估的方式. 聯(lián)邦儲備官員和布什政府估計每個月將有150000宗抵押能辦理調(diào)整.
Ms. Bair has proposed that mortgage companies freeze the interest rates on some two million mortgages at the rate before the reset to help borrowers avoid trouble. "Keep it at the starter rate," Ms. Bair said at conference last month. "Convert it into a fixed rate. Make it permanent. And get on with it."
Bair 女士建議抵押公司在調(diào)整來臨之前凍結(jié)部分200萬宗抵押的利率, 以幫助貸款者回避困難.“ 保持在最初設(shè)定的利率”, 在上個月的會議上Bair 女士說,“ 把他們轉(zhuǎn)到固定利率, 把它變成永久的,繼續(xù)按這樣做.”
Picking up on that theme, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in the past week announced an agreement with four major loan servicers, including Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's biggest mortgage lender, to freeze the interest rates on certain ARMs that are resetting. The freeze would be temporary, rather than for the life of the loan. The program is aimed at borrowers who are living in their homes and making their mortgage payments on time, but aren't expected to be able to make the higher payments after reset.
同樣的,加州州長施瓦辛格在上周和4家主要的貸款商包括本國的抵押貸款提供商Countrywide Financial Corp達(dá)成協(xié)議,凍結(jié)部分特定的正在調(diào)整的ARM的利率, 但這個凍結(jié)是臨時的,并非在整個貸款周期上. 這個計劃是針對那些住在他們的房子里并且還款準(zhǔn)時,在調(diào)整利率后認(rèn)為不能承受更高支付的貸款者.
The mortgage industry opposes a blanket move to modify loans that are resetting, says Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association. While modification may make sense in some cases, he says, it may also simply postpone the inevitable or reward borrowers who didn't manage their finances wisely. Mr. Duncan says the industry is working with government officials and consumer groups to develop principles that could be used to determine quickly who qualifies for a modified loan.
業(yè)界反對以地毯式推進(jìn)貸款調(diào)整, the Mortgage Bankers Association的首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家Doug Duncan 先生說, 當(dāng)某些情況下更改有意義時, 也可以簡單地推遲其必然性,或者給不能精明地管理他們的資金的借貸者予回報. Duncan 先生說業(yè)界正與政府官員和消費者群體一起建立能用于迅速界定誰能有資格擁有調(diào)整貸款的原則.
The political efforts are aimed at keeping the U.S. economy out of a housing-triggered recession. The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates that 1.35 million homes will enter the foreclosure process this year and another 1.44 million in 2008, up from 705,000 in 2005.
行政努力的目的是使美國經(jīng)濟免于因住房危機觸發(fā)的經(jīng)濟衰退. The Mortgage Bankers Association估計今年將有135萬套房子進(jìn)入抵押贖回權(quán)喪失程序, 2008年將達(dá)到144萬套, 而2005年僅有705,000套.
The projected supply of foreclosed homes is equal to about 45% of existing home sales and could add four months to the supply of existing homes, says Dale Westhoff, a senior managing director at Bear Stearns. This is a "fundamental shift" in the housing supply, says Mr. Westhoff, who believes that home prices will drop further as lenders "mark to market" repossessed homes.
計劃供應(yīng)的取消抵押贖回權(quán)的房子將占現(xiàn)存房子銷售量的大約45%, 將增加4個月的現(xiàn)房供應(yīng)量. Bear Stearns 的高級主管Dale Westhoff先生說, 這將是一個房子供應(yīng)量的“基本變化”. 他相信房價的下跌將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于出貸方推向市場的二手房價格.
Foreclosed homes typically sell at a discount of 20% to 25% compared to the sale of an owner-occupied home, analysts say. Lenders are eager to unload the properties, and the homes tend to be in poorer condition.
與有產(chǎn)權(quán)的房子售價相比, 取消抵押贖回權(quán)的房子售價將折價20%~25%.分析師說. 出貸方渴望擺脫擁有資產(chǎn)的負(fù)擔(dān),而房子則趨向于更糟糕的狀況.
"People didn't leave the house happily," says Jason Bosch, a broker with Home Center Realty in Norco, Calif. "There are often signs of that. There's used, dirty carpet. The grass is dead." Mr. Bosch says he now has about 120 bank-owned properties for sale or in escrow compared with none a year ago.
“人們不會開心地離開他們的房子”, 加州NOCOR的Home Center Realty公司經(jīng)紀(jì)人Jason Bosch先生說,“ 常有很多那樣的跡象, 被使用過,臟臟的地毯,草坪也死了.” Jason Bosch先生說,相比不到一年前,他手頭上就有大約120套銀行擁有產(chǎn)權(quán)或第三方保管的房子可供銷售.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress earlier this month, "A sharp increase in foreclosed properties for sale could……weaken the already struggling housing market and thus, potentially, the broader economy."
聯(lián)邦儲備委員會主席伯克南先生本月早些時候告訴國會,“ 劇增的取消抵押贖回權(quán)的房子銷售將….削弱已經(jīng)困難重重的房地產(chǎn)市場, 潛在地將波及更廣泛的經(jīng)濟范圍.”
The big concern is a vicious cycle in which foreclosures push down home prices, making it more difficult for borrowers to refinance and causing more defaults and foreclosures.
更大的關(guān)注是這種局面將陷入惡性循環(huán), 喪失抵押贖回權(quán)的房子將拉低房價, 使更多的借貸者難于重新融資而引起更多的房貸無法償還和喪失抵押贖回權(quán)
Real-estate agents, who look at prices for comparable homes, or comps, say the sale of bank-owned properties can have a big impact. "One month the comps are showing one price and then a bank comes in and sells a property for $30,000 less," says Randal Gibson, a real-estate agent in Henderson, Nev. "All of the sudden, that's the new comp. It hurts everyone in the neighborhood."
房地產(chǎn)公司觀察可比房屋的價格或者兩者, 說銀行擁有產(chǎn)權(quán)的房屋銷售有更大的影響,“ 一個月里兩者比較都在同一個價位上,然而銀行擁有產(chǎn)權(quán)的房屋以少30000USD的價格銷售,' Henderson, Nev 的房地產(chǎn)代理Randal Gibson先生說.” 所有的都很突然, 然后進(jìn)入新的兩者對比,這樣都損害到所有的鄰居.“
Interest Payments Set
To Grow on $362 Billion
In Mortgages in 2008
By RUTH SIMON
November 24, 2007
The subprime mortgage crisis is poised to get much worse.
次貸危機正朝更糟糕的局面發(fā)展.
Next year, interest rates are set to rise —— or "reset" —— on $362 billion worth of adjustable-rate subprime mortgages, according to data calculated by Bank of America Corp.
根據(jù)美洲銀行（Bank of America Corp）的計算數(shù)據(jù), 明年, 涉及3620億USD的可調(diào)整利率次貸的利率將被提高或調(diào)整.
While many accounts portray resetting rates as the big factor behind the surge in home-loan defaults and foreclosures this year, that isn't quite the case. Many of the subprime mortgages that have driven up the default rate went bad in their first year or so, well before their interest rate had a chance to go higher. Some of these mortgages went to speculators who planned to flip their houses, others to borrowers who had stretched too far to make their payments, and still others had some element of fraud.
在今年涌現(xiàn)的房貸無法償還和喪失抵押贖回權(quán)的背后,很多帳戶還被描述成調(diào)整利率是主要的工作, 這遠(yuǎn)非整個局面的全貌. 許多使房貸無法償還的次貸抵押在他們的第一年已經(jīng)變得更差,或者在不久前它們的利率已經(jīng)有機會變得更高. 這些次貸抵押一部分在準(zhǔn)備計劃拋售他們的房子的投機者手里, 一部分在已經(jīng)承受很高支付壓力的借貸人手中, 還有一部分具有欺詐因素.
Now the real crest of the reset wave is coming, and that promises more pain for borrowers, lenders and Wall Street. Already, many subprime lenders, who focused on people with poor credit, have gone bust. Big banks and investors who made subprime loans or bought securities backed by them are reporting billions of dollars in losses.
如今利率調(diào)整潮的真正高峰已經(jīng)來臨, 這勢必給借貸者,出貸方以及華爾街更大的痛苦.很多專注于給信用不足的人群發(fā)放次貸的出貸方已經(jīng)陷入瀕臨破產(chǎn)的邊緣. 許多發(fā)放次貸或者從這些出貸方購買投資證券的大銀行和投資者正在報告上十億美金的損失.
The reset peak will likely add to political pressure to help borrowers who can't afford to pay the higher interest rates. The housing slowdown is emerging as an issue in both the presidential and congressional races for 2008, and the Bush administration is pushing lenders to loosen terms and keep people from losing their homes.
調(diào)整高峰似正幫助不能支付更高利息的借貸者施加政治壓力. 對2008年的總統(tǒng)選舉和國會選舉來說, 住房供給減速將成為一個問題. 布什政府已經(jīng)逼出貸方放松貸款條件, 以保證人們不會失去他們的房子.
Banc of America Securities, a unit of the big Charlotte, N.C., bank, estimates that $85 billion in subprime mortgages are resetting during the current quarter, and the same amount will reset in the first quarter of 2008. That will rise to a peak of $101 billion in the second quarter. The estimates include loans packaged into securities and held in bank portfolios.
Charlotte, N.C., bank的分部Banc of America Securities 本季度將有850億USD的次貸利率需要調(diào)整. 2008年第一季度也將有同樣數(shù)量的次貸利率需要調(diào)整, 第二季度將達(dá)到峰值的1010億USD. 這個估計包括借貸打包證券和銀行持有的投資組合.
Larry Litton Jr., chief executive of Litton Loan Servicing, says resetting of adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, has recently emerged as a bigger driver of defaults. "The initial wave was largely driven by a higher frequency of fraudulent loans……and loose underwriting," says Mr. Litton, whose company services 340,000 loans nationwide. "A much larger percentage of the defaults we're seeing right now are the result of ARM resets."
Litton Loan Servicing的CEO Larry Litton Jr. 說, ARM利率的調(diào)整將是近期房貸無法償還比率變大的一個比較大的驅(qū)動因素.“ 最初的沖擊波將很大程度上來自更高頻率的貸款欺詐和寬松保險的驅(qū)動.” Litton 先生說. 他的公司在全國范圍內(nèi)服務(wù)340,000宗借貸.“我們現(xiàn)金看到的一個更大的房貸無法償還比率是ARM利率的調(diào)整的結(jié)果.”
More than half of the subprime delinquencies and foreclosures this year involved loans that hadn't yet reset, and thus were due to factors such as weak underwriting and falling home prices, according to Rod Dubitsky, an analyst with Credit Suisse.
根據(jù)瑞士信貸的分析師Rod Dubitsky先生的觀點,由于諸如較弱的保險和房價下跌等這些因素的影響,半數(shù)以上的次貸不良和喪失抵押贖回權(quán)的貸款利率沒有被調(diào)整.
The majority of subprime ARMs due to reset next year are so-called 2-28 loans, which carry a fixed rate for two years, then adjust annually thereafter. In a speech earlier this month, Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner explained how a typical 2-28 subprime loan issued in early 2007 might work. He said the interest rate on the loan would start at 7%, then jump to 9.5% after two years. For a typical borrower, that would add $350 to the monthly payment.
大多數(shù)明年需要調(diào)整的次級ARM即是所謂的2-28貸款.這些貸款的頭倆年利率是固定的,隨后每年將被調(diào)整. 根據(jù)本月初聯(lián)邦儲備官員Randall Kroszner先生的一篇演講, 他解釋了一個發(fā)行于20007年出的典型2-28貸款是如何運作的.他說,貸款利率最初設(shè)為7%,兩年后將跳升至9.5%. 對一個典型的借貸者來講,每月將增加還貸350USD.
.
職場新人如何選擇股票
貸款條件中英文對照
年薪翻倍外資銀行新招一萬雇員
.
Besides the $362 billion of subprime ARMs that are scheduled to reset during 2008, $152 billion of other loans with adjustable rates are set to reset, according to Banc of America Securities. The other resetting loans include "jumbo" mortgages of more than $417,000 and Alt-A loans, a category between prime and subprime. The latter category is the riskier, in part because it includes borrowers who provided little or no documentation of their income or assets.
根據(jù)Banc of America Securities的分析, 除了3620億次級ARM的利率將在2008年被調(diào)整, 另外還有1520億其他可變利率貸款也需要調(diào)整. 其他需要調(diào)整的貸款還包括: 超過417,000USD的 “jumbo”抵押貸款; ALT-A貸款, 一類介于初級和次級貸款之間的貸款. 更大的風(fēng)險是后者,因這部分包括了那些只能提供極少文件來證明他們的收入和財產(chǎn)的貸款者.
The number of borrowers facing higher payments isn't growing merely because the amount of loans with resets is higher. Another factor is that those with a looming reset now have a tougher time sidestepping it by refinancing or selling their home. "There is a large amount of borrowers who are in products that either no longer exist or that they no longer qualify for," says Banc of America Securities analyst Robert Lacoursiere.
面臨更高還款支付的借貸者的數(shù)量將不會純粹上升, 因為可調(diào)整貸款的數(shù)量更高.另一個因素是那些影子調(diào)整的貸款者只有很緊的時間來重新融資和賣掉房子來回避. “ 相當(dāng)多借貸者的房子將不復(fù)存在或者沒有資格擁有.” Banc of America Securities 的分析師Robert Lacoursiere先生說.
Falling home prices mean that many borrowers have little or no equity in their home, making it tougher for them to get out from under their loans.
房價下跌意味著許多借貸者擁有極少或甚至沒有的房屋資產(chǎn)價值. 這將加劇了他們走出貸款壓力的難度.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Sheila Bair, have been pressing lenders to modify terms in a sweeping way, rather than going through a time-consuming case-by-case evaluation that could end up pushing many people into foreclosure. Officials at the Federal Reserve and in the Bush administration have estimated that 150,000 mortgages are resetting a month.
財政部長Henry Paulson 和Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.的Sheila Bair女士 已經(jīng)大規(guī)模地給出貸方施加壓力改變貸款條件,而不用能使更多人陷入喪失抵押贖回權(quán)的消耗時間的逐案評估的方式. 聯(lián)邦儲備官員和布什政府估計每個月將有150000宗抵押能辦理調(diào)整.
Ms. Bair has proposed that mortgage companies freeze the interest rates on some two million mortgages at the rate before the reset to help borrowers avoid trouble. "Keep it at the starter rate," Ms. Bair said at conference last month. "Convert it into a fixed rate. Make it permanent. And get on with it."
Bair 女士建議抵押公司在調(diào)整來臨之前凍結(jié)部分200萬宗抵押的利率, 以幫助貸款者回避困難.“ 保持在最初設(shè)定的利率”, 在上個月的會議上Bair 女士說,“ 把他們轉(zhuǎn)到固定利率, 把它變成永久的,繼續(xù)按這樣做.”
Picking up on that theme, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in the past week announced an agreement with four major loan servicers, including Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's biggest mortgage lender, to freeze the interest rates on certain ARMs that are resetting. The freeze would be temporary, rather than for the life of the loan. The program is aimed at borrowers who are living in their homes and making their mortgage payments on time, but aren't expected to be able to make the higher payments after reset.
同樣的,加州州長施瓦辛格在上周和4家主要的貸款商包括本國的抵押貸款提供商Countrywide Financial Corp達(dá)成協(xié)議,凍結(jié)部分特定的正在調(diào)整的ARM的利率, 但這個凍結(jié)是臨時的,并非在整個貸款周期上. 這個計劃是針對那些住在他們的房子里并且還款準(zhǔn)時,在調(diào)整利率后認(rèn)為不能承受更高支付的貸款者.
The mortgage industry opposes a blanket move to modify loans that are resetting, says Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association. While modification may make sense in some cases, he says, it may also simply postpone the inevitable or reward borrowers who didn't manage their finances wisely. Mr. Duncan says the industry is working with government officials and consumer groups to develop principles that could be used to determine quickly who qualifies for a modified loan.
業(yè)界反對以地毯式推進(jìn)貸款調(diào)整, the Mortgage Bankers Association的首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家Doug Duncan 先生說, 當(dāng)某些情況下更改有意義時, 也可以簡單地推遲其必然性,或者給不能精明地管理他們的資金的借貸者予回報. Duncan 先生說業(yè)界正與政府官員和消費者群體一起建立能用于迅速界定誰能有資格擁有調(diào)整貸款的原則.
The political efforts are aimed at keeping the U.S. economy out of a housing-triggered recession. The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates that 1.35 million homes will enter the foreclosure process this year and another 1.44 million in 2008, up from 705,000 in 2005.
行政努力的目的是使美國經(jīng)濟免于因住房危機觸發(fā)的經(jīng)濟衰退. The Mortgage Bankers Association估計今年將有135萬套房子進(jìn)入抵押贖回權(quán)喪失程序, 2008年將達(dá)到144萬套, 而2005年僅有705,000套.
The projected supply of foreclosed homes is equal to about 45% of existing home sales and could add four months to the supply of existing homes, says Dale Westhoff, a senior managing director at Bear Stearns. This is a "fundamental shift" in the housing supply, says Mr. Westhoff, who believes that home prices will drop further as lenders "mark to market" repossessed homes.
計劃供應(yīng)的取消抵押贖回權(quán)的房子將占現(xiàn)存房子銷售量的大約45%, 將增加4個月的現(xiàn)房供應(yīng)量. Bear Stearns 的高級主管Dale Westhoff先生說, 這將是一個房子供應(yīng)量的“基本變化”. 他相信房價的下跌將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于出貸方推向市場的二手房價格.
Foreclosed homes typically sell at a discount of 20% to 25% compared to the sale of an owner-occupied home, analysts say. Lenders are eager to unload the properties, and the homes tend to be in poorer condition.
與有產(chǎn)權(quán)的房子售價相比, 取消抵押贖回權(quán)的房子售價將折價20%~25%.分析師說. 出貸方渴望擺脫擁有資產(chǎn)的負(fù)擔(dān),而房子則趨向于更糟糕的狀況.
"People didn't leave the house happily," says Jason Bosch, a broker with Home Center Realty in Norco, Calif. "There are often signs of that. There's used, dirty carpet. The grass is dead." Mr. Bosch says he now has about 120 bank-owned properties for sale or in escrow compared with none a year ago.
“人們不會開心地離開他們的房子”, 加州NOCOR的Home Center Realty公司經(jīng)紀(jì)人Jason Bosch先生說,“ 常有很多那樣的跡象, 被使用過,臟臟的地毯,草坪也死了.” Jason Bosch先生說,相比不到一年前,他手頭上就有大約120套銀行擁有產(chǎn)權(quán)或第三方保管的房子可供銷售.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress earlier this month, "A sharp increase in foreclosed properties for sale could……weaken the already struggling housing market and thus, potentially, the broader economy."
聯(lián)邦儲備委員會主席伯克南先生本月早些時候告訴國會,“ 劇增的取消抵押贖回權(quán)的房子銷售將….削弱已經(jīng)困難重重的房地產(chǎn)市場, 潛在地將波及更廣泛的經(jīng)濟范圍.”
The big concern is a vicious cycle in which foreclosures push down home prices, making it more difficult for borrowers to refinance and causing more defaults and foreclosures.
更大的關(guān)注是這種局面將陷入惡性循環(huán), 喪失抵押贖回權(quán)的房子將拉低房價, 使更多的借貸者難于重新融資而引起更多的房貸無法償還和喪失抵押贖回權(quán)
Real-estate agents, who look at prices for comparable homes, or comps, say the sale of bank-owned properties can have a big impact. "One month the comps are showing one price and then a bank comes in and sells a property for $30,000 less," says Randal Gibson, a real-estate agent in Henderson, Nev. "All of the sudden, that's the new comp. It hurts everyone in the neighborhood."
房地產(chǎn)公司觀察可比房屋的價格或者兩者, 說銀行擁有產(chǎn)權(quán)的房屋銷售有更大的影響,“ 一個月里兩者比較都在同一個價位上,然而銀行擁有產(chǎn)權(quán)的房屋以少30000USD的價格銷售,' Henderson, Nev 的房地產(chǎn)代理Randal Gibson先生說.” 所有的都很突然, 然后進(jìn)入新的兩者對比,這樣都損害到所有的鄰居.“