InternationalFinance國際金融

字號(hào):

In many respects international trade is no different from trade within a country. People who have more of a good than they want seek out other people who have something they lack. Through exchange, both parties attempt to make themselves better off. The complications of international trade arise because the two parties use different monies. An American who wants to buy a Japanese automobile cannot expect the Japanese manufacturer to accept U S. dollars in payment, unless by sheer coincidence the manufacturer happens at the time to want to buy a new computer from an American firm Otherwise the auto manufacturer will be stuck with money that no tempura shop or geisha in Tokyo will accept; in Japan the dollars are useless.
    Of course, things are rarely as complicated as the last paragraph suggests In both the United States and Japan there are banks that specialize in buying and selling foreign currencies. The sophisticated American would never offer dollars to the Japanese. Instead he would go to his bank and purchase Japanese yen with his dollars, then offer yen in payment for the car. Availability of yen would then make trade with Japan no more complicated than buying groceries at a neighborhood supermarket. But what is the price of yen? This question is more than slightly important. If yen are cheap -- if many can be bought for a dollar -- then buying Japanese goods will be attractive to Americans, and American goods will be expensive to Japanese buyers.
    The quantities of goods exchanged between two countries depend on complex forces. Even though unfettered trade might allow the world to consume more, each country is likely to be more concerned about employment and incomes at home than about economist's assurances of the efficiency of trade. Both countries may therefore try to encourage exports and discourage imports. Obviously, both countries cannot succeed at once.
    There is another side of the situation for many countries -- the developing countries especially, but also small island nations, such as Japan, Great Britain, and Hong Kong. Their ability to import goods in the future may be as important as economic efficiency and full employment in the present These countries depend on imports of spare parts, equipment, and raw materials to keep their economies operating. Not to have the foreign exchange to buy a new bearing for a steam turbine, or oil, or fertilizer, when the need arises is a risk they simply cannot afford. For this reason countries, even rich countries try to keep reserves of foreign currencies around. Just as individuals keep savings to meet emergencies and to cover payments on the television if they are laid off, so do nations attempt to maintain hoards of foreign currencies to cover unexpected events.
    The price of any foreign currency expressed in the local currency (say, dollars) is thus a major issue. And it is closely tied to the need to maintain reserves and the desire to manage certain aspects of the domestic economy. Over the past two centuries, a number of international monetary systems have been set up to deal with these questions. All have proved inadequate. The interests of some countries inevitably conflict with the interests of others, and so the system collapses. But in spite of its limitations and faults, the international financial system is important to all of us.
    [參考譯文]
    在許多方面,國際貿(mào)易與國內(nèi)貿(mào)易并無不同,人們?nèi)绻麚碛心撤N自用有余的商品,就會(huì)去尋找東西短缺的人。雙方都力求在交換中使自己受益。在國際貿(mào)易中,由于雙方使用不同的貨幣,因而產(chǎn)生許多復(fù)雜情況。一個(gè)美國人想購買一部日本汽車,他不能指望日本制造商會(huì)接受美元付款,除非碰巧這家制造商剛好想向美國廠商購買一部新計(jì)算機(jī)。否則,這筆錢就會(huì)滯留在汽車制造商手中,因?yàn)闁|京沒有一家油炸魚蝦店或藝位會(huì)接受美元,美元在日本不能通用。
    象上面所說那樣錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的事情當(dāng)然罕見。在美國和日本都有許多專門收集外匯的銀行。那位老練的美國人決不會(huì)付美元給日本人,他會(huì)到有來往的銀行把自己的美元兌成日元,然后用日元支付車款。那時(shí),手中有了日元,再和日本做生意,那就比在鄰近的超級(jí)市場(chǎng)買雜貨也來得并不復(fù)雜多少乙但是日元的牌價(jià)是多少呢?這個(gè)問題卻非同小可。如果日元貶值——即好多日元才能兌換一美元,那么美國人對(duì)購進(jìn)日貸就要大感興趣了,而對(duì)日本買主來說,美國貨就太昂貴了。
    兩國之間交換商品的數(shù)量多少,是由許多復(fù)雜原因決定的。盡管自由貿(mào)易可以使人類消費(fèi)更多的東西,但是看來各國格外關(guān)心的倒是國內(nèi)的就業(yè)和收入,而不是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所擔(dān)保的貿(mào)易功效。因此,兩個(gè)國家都可能盡力鼓動(dòng)出口、阻止進(jìn)口。很顯然,在這一點(diǎn)上兩國都是一時(shí)辦不到的。
    在許多國家中卻是另一種情況——特別是發(fā)展中國家,但也包括一些小的島國,如日本、英國,以及香港。他們未來進(jìn)口商品的能力與目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)效率和充分就業(yè)問題可能同等重要。這類國家要依靠進(jìn)口備件、設(shè)備和原材料來維持其經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。一旦需要購買汽輪機(jī)上用的新軸承,或者石油,或者化肥,而拿不出外匯來,那簡直是這些國家擔(dān)當(dāng)不起的一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此許多國家,甚至是富有的國家,都要設(shè)法在手頭保留若干外匯儲(chǔ)備。正如個(gè)人儲(chǔ)蓄一樣,是以備不時(shí)之需,如果被辭退了,也好用來支付電視付款,國家何嘗不是這樣,要努力積存外幣,以彌補(bǔ)各種不測(cè)事件所造成的損失。
    于是用當(dāng)?shù)赝ㄘ?就說美元吧)折合某種外幣的牌價(jià),就形成了一種主要爭端。而這是與保存儲(chǔ)備的需要,以及處理國內(nèi)各種經(jīng)濟(jì)局面的需要有著密切關(guān)系的。在過去的兩個(gè)世紀(jì)當(dāng)中,曾建立過許多國際貨幣體系來對(duì)付這些問題,但結(jié)果證明都不夠完善。某些國家的利益不可避免地要和其他國家利益發(fā)生沖突,體系因而就宣告瓦解了。盡管國際金融體系有其局限性和缺陷,但是對(duì)于我們大家來說畢竟是重要的。