31. The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
一家投資財經(jīng)咨詢公司的商務(wù)計劃：
研究顯示一個普通咖啡消費者的咖啡消耗從10到60歲隨年齡增長，甚至在60歲以后，咖啡消費仍然保持很高。而一般的可樂消費者的可樂消費隨年齡增加遞減。在過去40年中這兩個趨勢都很穩(wěn)定。由于在未來的20年內(nèi)老年人口將顯著增加，咖啡需求回增長而可樂需求會降低。因此，我們應(yīng)該考慮將我們的投資從可口可樂轉(zhuǎn)向雀巢咖啡。
1.all the things are equal 作者在得出這個推薦之前做了一個假設(shè)就是在未來的二十年中咖啡豆以及可樂的原料的相對價格不變.但這在這么長的一段時期是不可能的.很可能它們其中一種的原料相對于另外一種大幅度上升.由于相對成本的變化從而改變了相對價格也就改變了消費者的消費傾向.那么作者的建議就是完全靠不住的.
2.除了年齡因素很多其他的因素也會影響兩種飲料的消費量例如某一代人可能在每個年齡段都比另一代人消費更多的可樂.除非作者排除這些其他因素,否則說理是gratuitous的
3.沒有足夠有力的證據(jù)表明該項研究結(jié)果就是可信的Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the studies.Moreover, while the phrase "studies suggest" may appear to lend credibility to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in the absence of any information about them.
the author can not justify his recommendation ill-founded 無正當(dāng)理由的
1， 老人數(shù)增加不能導(dǎo)致年輕人數(shù)減少。是錯誤的推測。同時，即使老人增加，那么增加的老人很可能不是coffee drinker。
2， 過去和未來不一樣，未來可能兩種成本變化，價格發(fā)生很大變化。
3， 該研究結(jié)果不一定可信！
In this argument a consulting firm recommends the transfer of investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee because, during the next 20 years, coffee demand will increase while cola demand will decrease. This prediction is based on the expectation that the number of older adults will significantly increase over the next 20 years, together with statistics, reportedly stable for the past 40 years, indicating that coffee consumption increases with age while cola consumption declines with increasing age. For three reasons, this financial advice may not be sound.
First, the argument assumes that relative supply conditions will remain unchanged over the next twenty years. However, the supply and cost of cola and coffee beans, as well as other costs of doing business as a producer of coffee or cola, may fluctuate greatly over a long time period. These factors may affect comparative prices of coffee and cola, which in turn may affect comparative demand and the value of investments in coffee and cola companies. Without considering other factors that contribute to the value of a coffee or cola company, the firm cannot justify its recommendation.
Secondly, the argument fails to account for the timing of the increase in coffee consumption. Perhaps the population will age dramatically during the next five years, then remain relatively flat over the following 15 years. Or perhaps most of the increase in average age will occur toward the end of the 20-year period. An investor has more opportunity to profit over the short and long term in the first scenario than in the second, assuming the investor can switch investments along the way. If the second scenario reflects the facts, the firm’s recommendation would be ill-founded.
Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the studies. Moreover, while the phrase “studies suggest” may appear to lend credibility to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in the absence of any information about them.
In conclusion, the firm should not transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee on the basis of this argument. To better evaluate the recommendation, we would need more information about the study upon which it relies. We would also need more detailed projections of population trends during the next 20 years.
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
一家投資財經(jīng)咨詢公司的商務(wù)計劃：
研究顯示一個普通咖啡消費者的咖啡消耗從10到60歲隨年齡增長，甚至在60歲以后，咖啡消費仍然保持很高。而一般的可樂消費者的可樂消費隨年齡增加遞減。在過去40年中這兩個趨勢都很穩(wěn)定。由于在未來的20年內(nèi)老年人口將顯著增加，咖啡需求回增長而可樂需求會降低。因此，我們應(yīng)該考慮將我們的投資從可口可樂轉(zhuǎn)向雀巢咖啡。
1.all the things are equal 作者在得出這個推薦之前做了一個假設(shè)就是在未來的二十年中咖啡豆以及可樂的原料的相對價格不變.但這在這么長的一段時期是不可能的.很可能它們其中一種的原料相對于另外一種大幅度上升.由于相對成本的變化從而改變了相對價格也就改變了消費者的消費傾向.那么作者的建議就是完全靠不住的.
2.除了年齡因素很多其他的因素也會影響兩種飲料的消費量例如某一代人可能在每個年齡段都比另一代人消費更多的可樂.除非作者排除這些其他因素,否則說理是gratuitous的
3.沒有足夠有力的證據(jù)表明該項研究結(jié)果就是可信的Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the studies.Moreover, while the phrase "studies suggest" may appear to lend credibility to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in the absence of any information about them.
the author can not justify his recommendation ill-founded 無正當(dāng)理由的
1， 老人數(shù)增加不能導(dǎo)致年輕人數(shù)減少。是錯誤的推測。同時，即使老人增加，那么增加的老人很可能不是coffee drinker。
2， 過去和未來不一樣，未來可能兩種成本變化，價格發(fā)生很大變化。
3， 該研究結(jié)果不一定可信！
In this argument a consulting firm recommends the transfer of investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee because, during the next 20 years, coffee demand will increase while cola demand will decrease. This prediction is based on the expectation that the number of older adults will significantly increase over the next 20 years, together with statistics, reportedly stable for the past 40 years, indicating that coffee consumption increases with age while cola consumption declines with increasing age. For three reasons, this financial advice may not be sound.
First, the argument assumes that relative supply conditions will remain unchanged over the next twenty years. However, the supply and cost of cola and coffee beans, as well as other costs of doing business as a producer of coffee or cola, may fluctuate greatly over a long time period. These factors may affect comparative prices of coffee and cola, which in turn may affect comparative demand and the value of investments in coffee and cola companies. Without considering other factors that contribute to the value of a coffee or cola company, the firm cannot justify its recommendation.
Secondly, the argument fails to account for the timing of the increase in coffee consumption. Perhaps the population will age dramatically during the next five years, then remain relatively flat over the following 15 years. Or perhaps most of the increase in average age will occur toward the end of the 20-year period. An investor has more opportunity to profit over the short and long term in the first scenario than in the second, assuming the investor can switch investments along the way. If the second scenario reflects the facts, the firm’s recommendation would be ill-founded.
Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the studies. Moreover, while the phrase “studies suggest” may appear to lend credibility to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in the absence of any information about them.
In conclusion, the firm should not transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee on the basis of this argument. To better evaluate the recommendation, we would need more information about the study upon which it relies. We would also need more detailed projections of population trends during the next 20 years.