Does the president have a good shrink on the White House staff?
He'd better. Because the president's 'soak the rich' budget is betting that the administration has a pretty good handle on the psychology of 'wealthy' Americans.
America's 'wealthy' pay 60% of the nation's income taxes. And the Obama budget sees them earning, spending, investing and paying taxes as they have in the past.
That's the only way the Obama team can justify a budget that forecasts double-digit growth rates in income tax receipts through 2012. The same team is forecasting GDP growth rates twice that of many private forecasts.
But it seems awfully unlikely that the 'wealthy' will cooperate with Obama. They've already cut back. And now, his Robin Hood crusade will encourage them to pull back even further.
How do I know？ Well, take one random example.
Me.
In recent months, I took my guitar lessons down from two hours a week to one. I axed the daily subscription to the New York Times - it's free online, after all.
And my wife and I did not see one movie that was nominated for the best picture Oscar. A babysitter for a night out in New York runs 75 bucks.
Of course, this is just reflexive 'recession' behavior - little adjustments to make me feel better about my pummeling in the stock market.
But going forward, I see little to encourage me to change my behavior and spend or invest more. All I see is uncertainty.
New York state is in dire straits. My real estate taxes have just skyrocketed. The New York legislature is bandying about a 'millionaire's tax' on families that make $250,000 a year. And now there is uncertainty over the interest deductibility on my jumbo mortgage.
Even though I know perfectly well that the Obama tax hikes don't kick in until 2011, the prospect of paying more tomorrow shapes my behavior today. That's a lesson straight from Psych 101.
Another lesson is that words matter. All the ferocious antibusiness rhetoric pouring out of Washington is putting me in a deep funk.
So far, I've lost about 25% on my stock market investments since Obama's election. Why would I put in any more money when the president and Congress are at war with Wall Street?
Where would I invest anyway?
Safe-haven stocks? In an economy where Washington touches everything, there are no 'safe havens.' Just look at the 13% fall in drug stocks since Obama's speech on Tuesday.
And when making money gets a bad rap in society, the inclination of the 'wealthy' is to pull way back.
I look at my 'wealthy' friends. They consider themselves upper middle class, but in Obama's America they don't exist anymore. There are only 'working families' and the 'wealthy,' so they get lumped in with Warren Buffett.
Everyday, these 'wealthy' people ask themselves the questions that determine the fate of the economy.
Why donate to the museum or cancer charity this year？ Why go to Philadelphia for the three-day weekend？ How much longer can we afford to send the kids to private school？
In the finance industry states - New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts - there are just under 900,000 'wealthy' households earning more than $200,000 a year.
Their incomes have been decimated by Wall Street's collapse. And now they're scared of the future.
The Obama budget needs these households. After all, these 900,000 represent about a quarter of all the 'wealthy' households in the U.S.
But like many of my friends and I, these people are putting their wallets away and hunkering down for years of economic malaise.
They're doing what is good for them. Unfortunately, that's bad for America and very bad for the Obama budget.
奧巴馬總統(tǒng)的白宮工作人員里有沒(méi)有一個(gè)好心理醫(yī)生？
他好有一個(gè)。因?yàn)榭偨y(tǒng)先生“敲富人竹杠”的預(yù)算案賭的就是他的政府很好地掌控了“富有”美國(guó)人的心理。
美國(guó)“富人”支付的個(gè)人所得稅占了美國(guó)個(gè)稅總額的60%。而按照奧巴馬的預(yù)算案，他們的收入、開(kāi)支、投資和稅負(fù)都跟以前一樣。
只有這樣，奧巴馬團(tuán)隊(duì)的預(yù)算才能說(shuō)得通。根據(jù)預(yù)算，美國(guó)個(gè)稅收入到2012年將實(shí)現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)的增長(zhǎng)。同時(shí)奧巴馬團(tuán)隊(duì)預(yù)計(jì)的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增幅也兩倍于許多民間機(jī)構(gòu)的預(yù)測(cè)。
但“富人”會(huì)跟奧巴馬合作的可能性看起來(lái)微乎其微。這些人已經(jīng)縮減了開(kāi)支。而現(xiàn)在，奧巴馬這種劫富濟(jì)貧式的改革會(huì)讓他們進(jìn)一步收緊銀根。
我怎么知道？好吧，我們隨便舉個(gè)例子。
就拿我自己來(lái)說(shuō)吧。
近幾個(gè)月，我將吉他課程從每周兩小時(shí)減少到一小時(shí)。我取消了每天訂閱的《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》－－反正網(wǎng)上有免費(fèi)的。
妻子和我連一部獲得奧斯卡佳影片提名的電影都沒(méi)看過(guò)。在紐約，請(qǐng)個(gè)人照看一晚上孩子要花75美元。
當(dāng)然，這只不過(guò)是本能的“衰退”行為－－只是一些小小的調(diào)整，讓我對(duì)自己在股市里遭受的打擊感覺(jué)好點(diǎn)兒。
但想想將來(lái)，我覺(jué)得沒(méi)什么能促使我改變自己的行為，增加開(kāi)支或投資。我覺(jué)得什么都靠不住。
紐約州處于可怕的困境。我的房產(chǎn)稅數(shù)目飆升。紐約州議會(huì)號(hào)稱要向年收入25萬(wàn)美元以上的家庭征收“百萬(wàn)富翁稅”。而現(xiàn)在我那筆龐大的抵押貸款的利息還能不能抵稅也成了未知數(shù)。
雖然我完全清楚奧巴馬的增稅措施要到2011年才開(kāi)始實(shí)施，但將來(lái)要交更多稅的前景現(xiàn)在就影響了我的行為。這是心理學(xué)入門課的常識(shí)。
另一個(gè)教訓(xùn)是言辭也很重要。政府不斷發(fā)出反對(duì)金融商業(yè)界的激烈言論，令驚恐萬(wàn)分。
奧巴馬當(dāng)選迄今，我在股市的投資已經(jīng)縮水了25%左右。在總統(tǒng)和國(guó)會(huì)正拿華爾街開(kāi)刀的時(shí)候，我干嘛還去增加投資？
我到底該投資在什么地方呢？
安全港類型的股票？在政府什么都要插一手的經(jīng)濟(jì)中，根本沒(méi)有安全港可言。只要看看奧巴馬上周二演講至今藥品類股下跌13%的慘狀就知道了。
而當(dāng)整個(gè)社會(huì)給掙錢冠以惡名時(shí)，“富人”就會(huì)傾向于夾著尾巴低調(diào)做人。
我觀察了我那些“富人”朋友。他們認(rèn)為自己屬于中上階層，但在奧巴馬看來(lái)，他們這個(gè)階層在美國(guó)不存在。美國(guó)只有“工薪階層”和“富人”，這樣一來(lái)他們就跟沃倫巴菲特(Warren Buffett)一個(gè)階層了。
每一天，這些“富人”都會(huì)問(wèn)自己一些問(wèn)題，而這些問(wèn)題會(huì)決定經(jīng)濟(jì)的命運(yùn)：
今年干嘛還要向博物館或是防癌慈善組織捐款？干嘛去費(fèi)城過(guò)三天的長(zhǎng)周末？還能送孩子上多久的私立學(xué)校？
在紐約、新澤西、康涅狄格和馬薩諸塞等金融業(yè)為主的州，年收入超過(guò)20萬(wàn)美元的“富人”家庭數(shù)量接近90萬(wàn)。
由于金融業(yè)的崩潰，這部分人的收入急劇縮水?，F(xiàn)在他們對(duì)未來(lái)憂心忡忡。
奧巴馬的預(yù)算需要這些家庭。畢竟這90萬(wàn)個(gè)家庭占了美國(guó)所有“富有”家庭的四分之一。
但就像我的很多朋友和我一樣，這些人正在收起自己的錢包，做好準(zhǔn)備迎接長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)年的經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣。
他們這樣做對(duì)自己有好處。不幸的是，這對(duì)美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)卻是壞事，對(duì)奧巴馬的預(yù)算來(lái)說(shuō)更是糟糕透頂。
He'd better. Because the president's 'soak the rich' budget is betting that the administration has a pretty good handle on the psychology of 'wealthy' Americans.
America's 'wealthy' pay 60% of the nation's income taxes. And the Obama budget sees them earning, spending, investing and paying taxes as they have in the past.
That's the only way the Obama team can justify a budget that forecasts double-digit growth rates in income tax receipts through 2012. The same team is forecasting GDP growth rates twice that of many private forecasts.
But it seems awfully unlikely that the 'wealthy' will cooperate with Obama. They've already cut back. And now, his Robin Hood crusade will encourage them to pull back even further.
How do I know？ Well, take one random example.
Me.
In recent months, I took my guitar lessons down from two hours a week to one. I axed the daily subscription to the New York Times - it's free online, after all.
And my wife and I did not see one movie that was nominated for the best picture Oscar. A babysitter for a night out in New York runs 75 bucks.
Of course, this is just reflexive 'recession' behavior - little adjustments to make me feel better about my pummeling in the stock market.
But going forward, I see little to encourage me to change my behavior and spend or invest more. All I see is uncertainty.
New York state is in dire straits. My real estate taxes have just skyrocketed. The New York legislature is bandying about a 'millionaire's tax' on families that make $250,000 a year. And now there is uncertainty over the interest deductibility on my jumbo mortgage.
Even though I know perfectly well that the Obama tax hikes don't kick in until 2011, the prospect of paying more tomorrow shapes my behavior today. That's a lesson straight from Psych 101.
Another lesson is that words matter. All the ferocious antibusiness rhetoric pouring out of Washington is putting me in a deep funk.
So far, I've lost about 25% on my stock market investments since Obama's election. Why would I put in any more money when the president and Congress are at war with Wall Street?
Where would I invest anyway?
Safe-haven stocks? In an economy where Washington touches everything, there are no 'safe havens.' Just look at the 13% fall in drug stocks since Obama's speech on Tuesday.
And when making money gets a bad rap in society, the inclination of the 'wealthy' is to pull way back.
I look at my 'wealthy' friends. They consider themselves upper middle class, but in Obama's America they don't exist anymore. There are only 'working families' and the 'wealthy,' so they get lumped in with Warren Buffett.
Everyday, these 'wealthy' people ask themselves the questions that determine the fate of the economy.
Why donate to the museum or cancer charity this year？ Why go to Philadelphia for the three-day weekend？ How much longer can we afford to send the kids to private school？
In the finance industry states - New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts - there are just under 900,000 'wealthy' households earning more than $200,000 a year.
Their incomes have been decimated by Wall Street's collapse. And now they're scared of the future.
The Obama budget needs these households. After all, these 900,000 represent about a quarter of all the 'wealthy' households in the U.S.
But like many of my friends and I, these people are putting their wallets away and hunkering down for years of economic malaise.
They're doing what is good for them. Unfortunately, that's bad for America and very bad for the Obama budget.
奧巴馬總統(tǒng)的白宮工作人員里有沒(méi)有一個(gè)好心理醫(yī)生？
他好有一個(gè)。因?yàn)榭偨y(tǒng)先生“敲富人竹杠”的預(yù)算案賭的就是他的政府很好地掌控了“富有”美國(guó)人的心理。
美國(guó)“富人”支付的個(gè)人所得稅占了美國(guó)個(gè)稅總額的60%。而按照奧巴馬的預(yù)算案，他們的收入、開(kāi)支、投資和稅負(fù)都跟以前一樣。
只有這樣，奧巴馬團(tuán)隊(duì)的預(yù)算才能說(shuō)得通。根據(jù)預(yù)算，美國(guó)個(gè)稅收入到2012年將實(shí)現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)的增長(zhǎng)。同時(shí)奧巴馬團(tuán)隊(duì)預(yù)計(jì)的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增幅也兩倍于許多民間機(jī)構(gòu)的預(yù)測(cè)。
但“富人”會(huì)跟奧巴馬合作的可能性看起來(lái)微乎其微。這些人已經(jīng)縮減了開(kāi)支。而現(xiàn)在，奧巴馬這種劫富濟(jì)貧式的改革會(huì)讓他們進(jìn)一步收緊銀根。
我怎么知道？好吧，我們隨便舉個(gè)例子。
就拿我自己來(lái)說(shuō)吧。
近幾個(gè)月，我將吉他課程從每周兩小時(shí)減少到一小時(shí)。我取消了每天訂閱的《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》－－反正網(wǎng)上有免費(fèi)的。
妻子和我連一部獲得奧斯卡佳影片提名的電影都沒(méi)看過(guò)。在紐約，請(qǐng)個(gè)人照看一晚上孩子要花75美元。
當(dāng)然，這只不過(guò)是本能的“衰退”行為－－只是一些小小的調(diào)整，讓我對(duì)自己在股市里遭受的打擊感覺(jué)好點(diǎn)兒。
但想想將來(lái)，我覺(jué)得沒(méi)什么能促使我改變自己的行為，增加開(kāi)支或投資。我覺(jué)得什么都靠不住。
紐約州處于可怕的困境。我的房產(chǎn)稅數(shù)目飆升。紐約州議會(huì)號(hào)稱要向年收入25萬(wàn)美元以上的家庭征收“百萬(wàn)富翁稅”。而現(xiàn)在我那筆龐大的抵押貸款的利息還能不能抵稅也成了未知數(shù)。
雖然我完全清楚奧巴馬的增稅措施要到2011年才開(kāi)始實(shí)施，但將來(lái)要交更多稅的前景現(xiàn)在就影響了我的行為。這是心理學(xué)入門課的常識(shí)。
另一個(gè)教訓(xùn)是言辭也很重要。政府不斷發(fā)出反對(duì)金融商業(yè)界的激烈言論，令驚恐萬(wàn)分。
奧巴馬當(dāng)選迄今，我在股市的投資已經(jīng)縮水了25%左右。在總統(tǒng)和國(guó)會(huì)正拿華爾街開(kāi)刀的時(shí)候，我干嘛還去增加投資？
我到底該投資在什么地方呢？
安全港類型的股票？在政府什么都要插一手的經(jīng)濟(jì)中，根本沒(méi)有安全港可言。只要看看奧巴馬上周二演講至今藥品類股下跌13%的慘狀就知道了。
而當(dāng)整個(gè)社會(huì)給掙錢冠以惡名時(shí)，“富人”就會(huì)傾向于夾著尾巴低調(diào)做人。
我觀察了我那些“富人”朋友。他們認(rèn)為自己屬于中上階層，但在奧巴馬看來(lái)，他們這個(gè)階層在美國(guó)不存在。美國(guó)只有“工薪階層”和“富人”，這樣一來(lái)他們就跟沃倫巴菲特(Warren Buffett)一個(gè)階層了。
每一天，這些“富人”都會(huì)問(wèn)自己一些問(wèn)題，而這些問(wèn)題會(huì)決定經(jīng)濟(jì)的命運(yùn)：
今年干嘛還要向博物館或是防癌慈善組織捐款？干嘛去費(fèi)城過(guò)三天的長(zhǎng)周末？還能送孩子上多久的私立學(xué)校？
在紐約、新澤西、康涅狄格和馬薩諸塞等金融業(yè)為主的州，年收入超過(guò)20萬(wàn)美元的“富人”家庭數(shù)量接近90萬(wàn)。
由于金融業(yè)的崩潰，這部分人的收入急劇縮水?，F(xiàn)在他們對(duì)未來(lái)憂心忡忡。
奧巴馬的預(yù)算需要這些家庭。畢竟這90萬(wàn)個(gè)家庭占了美國(guó)所有“富有”家庭的四分之一。
但就像我的很多朋友和我一樣，這些人正在收起自己的錢包，做好準(zhǔn)備迎接長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)年的經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣。
他們這樣做對(duì)自己有好處。不幸的是，這對(duì)美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)卻是壞事，對(duì)奧巴馬的預(yù)算來(lái)說(shuō)更是糟糕透頂。