2月份中國貿(mào)易順差從1月份的195億美元收窄至86億美元。中國的出口同比增長幅度從1月份的26.6%，大幅降至6.5%，而由于大宗商品價格飆升，進口同比增幅為35.1%（1月份為27.5%）。
China's trade surplus narrowed to $8.6bn in February from $19.5bn in January. The country’s export growth plunged to 6.5% YoY from 26.6% in January, while imports grew 35.1% YoY (from 27.5% in January) as commodity prices surged.
我們預(yù)計到了2008年中國出口增長將放緩，但我們認為，2月份中國出口增長之所以大幅下降，很大程度上是受兩個主要一次性因素的驅(qū)動：
We have anticipated a slowdown in China’s export growth in 2008, but believe the severity of the slump in February was largely driven by two major one-off factors:
1. 2007年2月份中國出口同比增長52%，原因是外界廣泛預(yù)期中國將削減增值稅出口退稅，中國出口商爭相趕在此前出口。這實際上為計算2008年2月份出口增幅設(shè)定了一個較高的基數(shù)。
1. Export growth surged by 52% YoY in February 2007 as Chinese exporters rushed to beat widely anticipated cutes to VAT rebates. This in effect created a high base, from which the February 2008 growth rate was calculated.
2. 今年頭幾個月的冬季暴雪導(dǎo)致大面積供電及交通運輸中斷，影響到了生產(chǎn)和出口水平。
2. Severe winter storms in opening months of the year have led to widespread power and transportation disruptions, which affected production and export levels.
我們預(yù)計3月份的出口數(shù)據(jù)將有所反彈，但我們?nèi)灶A(yù)計，由于經(jīng)合組織(OECD)成員經(jīng)濟體的放緩（它們占中國出口的三分之二），今年中國出口增長的放緩程度將更為溫和。
We expect the export figures to rebound in March, but continue to anticipate a more moderate slowdown in export growth over the course of the year in response to the slowdown in the OECD economies (which take up two-thirds of China’s exports).
盡管新興市場對中國出口的需求仍然強勁，但我們認為，這無法完全抵消發(fā)達市場需求下降的影響。
While the demand for Chinese exports from emerging markets remains buoyant, we do not believe this will fully offset the moderation in developed markets.
中國出口領(lǐng)域的放緩，將成為2008年中國經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)鍵風險之一。2007年中國出口總額占總體經(jīng)濟的36%，而貿(mào)易順差約占中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增長的五分之一。
A slowdown in China’s export sector constitutes one of the key risks to economic growth in 2008. Total exports accounted for 36% of the overall economy in 2007, while the trade surplus accounts for about a fifth of China’s GDP growth.
與此同時，不斷飆升的大宗商品價格持續(xù)推高進口額——2月份進口增速連續(xù)第5個月快于出口增速。此外，中國2月份的生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)較上年同期增長6.6%——為2004年12月份以來的最快增速。這再次反映出一系列大宗商品和基本生產(chǎn)資料的成本壓力不斷上升。
Meanwhile, soaring commodity prices continue to boost the value of imports - February marks the fifth month in a row that imports have grown faster than exports. Separately, China’s producer prices gained 6.6% in February from a year earlier - the fastest rate since December 2004. This again reflects rising cost pressures for a range of commodities and basic inputs.
中國日益擴大的貿(mào)易順差一直是流動性過剩的主要原因。不過，2008年中國貿(mào)易順差的增長料將有所緩和——這不僅是受海外需求走軟的影響，還受人民幣不斷升值的影響。人民幣不斷升值導(dǎo)致出口價格上漲，但使得中國的海外購買力增強。這一趨勢將有利于中國抑制流動性過剩的努力。
China’s widening trade surplus has been a major source of excess liquidity. However, growth in the trade surplus is expected to ease in 2008 - impacted not only by weaker overseas demand, but also by the effect of a strengthening yuan, which makes exports more expensive but gives China more buying power abroad. This trend will be beneficial to China’s efforts to curb excess liquidity
China's trade surplus narrowed to $8.6bn in February from $19.5bn in January. The country’s export growth plunged to 6.5% YoY from 26.6% in January, while imports grew 35.1% YoY (from 27.5% in January) as commodity prices surged.
我們預(yù)計到了2008年中國出口增長將放緩，但我們認為，2月份中國出口增長之所以大幅下降，很大程度上是受兩個主要一次性因素的驅(qū)動：
We have anticipated a slowdown in China’s export growth in 2008, but believe the severity of the slump in February was largely driven by two major one-off factors:
1. 2007年2月份中國出口同比增長52%，原因是外界廣泛預(yù)期中國將削減增值稅出口退稅，中國出口商爭相趕在此前出口。這實際上為計算2008年2月份出口增幅設(shè)定了一個較高的基數(shù)。
1. Export growth surged by 52% YoY in February 2007 as Chinese exporters rushed to beat widely anticipated cutes to VAT rebates. This in effect created a high base, from which the February 2008 growth rate was calculated.
2. 今年頭幾個月的冬季暴雪導(dǎo)致大面積供電及交通運輸中斷，影響到了生產(chǎn)和出口水平。
2. Severe winter storms in opening months of the year have led to widespread power and transportation disruptions, which affected production and export levels.
我們預(yù)計3月份的出口數(shù)據(jù)將有所反彈，但我們?nèi)灶A(yù)計，由于經(jīng)合組織(OECD)成員經(jīng)濟體的放緩（它們占中國出口的三分之二），今年中國出口增長的放緩程度將更為溫和。
We expect the export figures to rebound in March, but continue to anticipate a more moderate slowdown in export growth over the course of the year in response to the slowdown in the OECD economies (which take up two-thirds of China’s exports).
盡管新興市場對中國出口的需求仍然強勁，但我們認為，這無法完全抵消發(fā)達市場需求下降的影響。
While the demand for Chinese exports from emerging markets remains buoyant, we do not believe this will fully offset the moderation in developed markets.
中國出口領(lǐng)域的放緩，將成為2008年中國經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)鍵風險之一。2007年中國出口總額占總體經(jīng)濟的36%，而貿(mào)易順差約占中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增長的五分之一。
A slowdown in China’s export sector constitutes one of the key risks to economic growth in 2008. Total exports accounted for 36% of the overall economy in 2007, while the trade surplus accounts for about a fifth of China’s GDP growth.
與此同時，不斷飆升的大宗商品價格持續(xù)推高進口額——2月份進口增速連續(xù)第5個月快于出口增速。此外，中國2月份的生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)較上年同期增長6.6%——為2004年12月份以來的最快增速。這再次反映出一系列大宗商品和基本生產(chǎn)資料的成本壓力不斷上升。
Meanwhile, soaring commodity prices continue to boost the value of imports - February marks the fifth month in a row that imports have grown faster than exports. Separately, China’s producer prices gained 6.6% in February from a year earlier - the fastest rate since December 2004. This again reflects rising cost pressures for a range of commodities and basic inputs.
中國日益擴大的貿(mào)易順差一直是流動性過剩的主要原因。不過，2008年中國貿(mào)易順差的增長料將有所緩和——這不僅是受海外需求走軟的影響，還受人民幣不斷升值的影響。人民幣不斷升值導(dǎo)致出口價格上漲，但使得中國的海外購買力增強。這一趨勢將有利于中國抑制流動性過剩的努力。
China’s widening trade surplus has been a major source of excess liquidity. However, growth in the trade surplus is expected to ease in 2008 - impacted not only by weaker overseas demand, but also by the effect of a strengthening yuan, which makes exports more expensive but gives China more buying power abroad. This trend will be beneficial to China’s efforts to curb excess liquidity