上帝保佑那些在五月份賣(mài)出股票、清倉(cāng)離場(chǎng)的亞洲基金經(jīng)理。在今夏的大部分時(shí)間里，該地區(qū)的股票市場(chǎng)一直在忙于創(chuàng)新高。上周五，有五個(gè)股市報(bào)收于歷史水平。
Heaven help the Asian fund manager who sold in May and went away. Stock markets in the region have spent much of the summer hitting fresh highs. On Friday, five of them closed at record levels.
考慮到旺盛的人氣和源源不斷流向該地區(qū)的資金，這場(chǎng)狂歡派對(duì)估計(jì)不會(huì)很快結(jié)束。緊張不安情緒已被拋在腦后。在近期的股市動(dòng)蕩之后，僅有8周出現(xiàn)了外國(guó)投資者從中國(guó)撤出資金的情況；截止7月第一周，涌向亞洲的新資金大部分流向了大中華地區(qū)。花旗集團(tuán)(Citigroup)提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，當(dāng)周，印度股市出現(xiàn)了14億美元的凈買(mǎi)盤(pán)。作為外資的寵兒，新加坡繼續(xù)吸引著凈買(mǎi)盤(pán)。
Given the euphoria and the funds pouring into the region, it is hard to imagine the party ending any time soon. Jitters are swiftly forgotten. Foreign investors spent just eight weeks pulling money out of China in the wake of recent wobbles; by the first week of July, the bulk of new money to Asia was heading for Greater China. The same week saw $1.4bn of net buying in the Indian market, according to Citigroup. Singapore, a darling for foreigners, continues to attract net buying.
雖然如此，警告信號(hào)仍在閃爍。除了泰國(guó)等少數(shù)明顯的例外情況之外，亞洲市場(chǎng)的估值普遍處于歷史高位，以今年的收益衡量，市盈率大約為16到20倍。今明兩年的預(yù)期收益增幅大多在10%至20%之間，但也有幾個(gè)前景不妙的例外--包括香港和新加坡。貨幣升值對(duì)海外投資者有利，但也壓榨了韓國(guó)和印度出口商的利潤(rùn)率。此外，從澳大利亞到臺(tái)灣，一系列并購(gòu)交易的失敗，可能預(yù)示著推動(dòng)股價(jià)上升的并購(gòu)狂潮已接近尾聲。
Nonetheless, warning signs are flashing. Asia's markets, with a few notable exceptions such as Thailand, are expensive in historical terms at 16-20 times this year's earnings. Estimated earnings growth, both this year and next, is mostly in the 10-20 per cent range, but there are a few dull patches - including Hong Kong and Singapore. Currency appreciation, while good for overseas investors, is crimping profitability at Korean and Indian exporters. And a handful of scuttled deals, in markets from Australia to Taiwan, could signal an end to the M&A frenzy that has helped spice up prices.
當(dāng)然，只要資金繼續(xù)入市，以上這些都不是問(wèn)題。在這一層面，即便海外資金回流，前景還是相當(dāng)樂(lè)觀的。本地資金非常充裕，這從首次公開(kāi)發(fā)行(IPO)的認(rèn)購(gòu)規(guī)模即可看出--尤其在香港和中國(guó)內(nèi)地。來(lái)自外匯儲(chǔ)備和養(yǎng)老基金更多激進(jìn)的投資委托，也會(huì)構(gòu)成支持。
None of that matters a whit so long as the funds keep coming. On that score, there is every reason to be optimistic - even if foreign money stages a reversal. There is an abundance of local money, as testified by subscriptions for local initial public offerings, especially in Hong Kong and mainland China. More aggressive investment mandates for billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves and pension funds are also supportive.
但是，不喜歡僅僅憑借人氣做出判斷的投資者，在度假之前跳離亞洲最熱門(mén)的市場(chǎng)。
However, investors who prefer not to place their faith in mere sentiment are better off bailing out of the region's hottest markets before heading off on holiday.
Heaven help the Asian fund manager who sold in May and went away. Stock markets in the region have spent much of the summer hitting fresh highs. On Friday, five of them closed at record levels.
考慮到旺盛的人氣和源源不斷流向該地區(qū)的資金，這場(chǎng)狂歡派對(duì)估計(jì)不會(huì)很快結(jié)束。緊張不安情緒已被拋在腦后。在近期的股市動(dòng)蕩之后，僅有8周出現(xiàn)了外國(guó)投資者從中國(guó)撤出資金的情況；截止7月第一周，涌向亞洲的新資金大部分流向了大中華地區(qū)。花旗集團(tuán)(Citigroup)提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，當(dāng)周，印度股市出現(xiàn)了14億美元的凈買(mǎi)盤(pán)。作為外資的寵兒，新加坡繼續(xù)吸引著凈買(mǎi)盤(pán)。
Given the euphoria and the funds pouring into the region, it is hard to imagine the party ending any time soon. Jitters are swiftly forgotten. Foreign investors spent just eight weeks pulling money out of China in the wake of recent wobbles; by the first week of July, the bulk of new money to Asia was heading for Greater China. The same week saw $1.4bn of net buying in the Indian market, according to Citigroup. Singapore, a darling for foreigners, continues to attract net buying.
雖然如此，警告信號(hào)仍在閃爍。除了泰國(guó)等少數(shù)明顯的例外情況之外，亞洲市場(chǎng)的估值普遍處于歷史高位，以今年的收益衡量，市盈率大約為16到20倍。今明兩年的預(yù)期收益增幅大多在10%至20%之間，但也有幾個(gè)前景不妙的例外--包括香港和新加坡。貨幣升值對(duì)海外投資者有利，但也壓榨了韓國(guó)和印度出口商的利潤(rùn)率。此外，從澳大利亞到臺(tái)灣，一系列并購(gòu)交易的失敗，可能預(yù)示著推動(dòng)股價(jià)上升的并購(gòu)狂潮已接近尾聲。
Nonetheless, warning signs are flashing. Asia's markets, with a few notable exceptions such as Thailand, are expensive in historical terms at 16-20 times this year's earnings. Estimated earnings growth, both this year and next, is mostly in the 10-20 per cent range, but there are a few dull patches - including Hong Kong and Singapore. Currency appreciation, while good for overseas investors, is crimping profitability at Korean and Indian exporters. And a handful of scuttled deals, in markets from Australia to Taiwan, could signal an end to the M&A frenzy that has helped spice up prices.
當(dāng)然，只要資金繼續(xù)入市，以上這些都不是問(wèn)題。在這一層面，即便海外資金回流，前景還是相當(dāng)樂(lè)觀的。本地資金非常充裕，這從首次公開(kāi)發(fā)行(IPO)的認(rèn)購(gòu)規(guī)模即可看出--尤其在香港和中國(guó)內(nèi)地。來(lái)自外匯儲(chǔ)備和養(yǎng)老基金更多激進(jìn)的投資委托，也會(huì)構(gòu)成支持。
None of that matters a whit so long as the funds keep coming. On that score, there is every reason to be optimistic - even if foreign money stages a reversal. There is an abundance of local money, as testified by subscriptions for local initial public offerings, especially in Hong Kong and mainland China. More aggressive investment mandates for billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves and pension funds are also supportive.
但是，不喜歡僅僅憑借人氣做出判斷的投資者，在度假之前跳離亞洲最熱門(mén)的市場(chǎng)。
However, investors who prefer not to place their faith in mere sentiment are better off bailing out of the region's hottest markets before heading off on holiday.