我覺得現(xiàn)在是時(shí)候分享一個(gè)秘密了。當(dāng)我一周之前去度假時(shí)，我正在抵抗很深的咖啡癮。我覺得現(xiàn)在我能夠承認(rèn)這件事了，因?yàn)樵谛菁倨陂g，我能夠遵守突然戒除法、戰(zhàn)勝咖啡癮，然后清白地面對(duì)世界。
I feel that it is time to share a secret. When I left on my holiday just over a week ago, I was fighting a battle with a deep-rooted addiction. I feel able to admit this, since over the course of my holiday I was able to go through cold turkey, conquer the addiction, and face the world clean.
從今以后，我只喝不含咖啡因的咖啡。上癮——即使是像過濾咖啡這樣溫和的東西——是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家不太可能解決的問題，因?yàn)槎鄶?shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論的預(yù)測(cè)都是建立在理性行為基礎(chǔ)上的，而上癮似乎在本質(zhì)上就是非理性的。
It’s decaffeinated coffee for me from now on. Addiction – even to something as benign as filter coffee - is an unlikely topic for an economist to tackle, because most economic theory is predicated on rational behaviour, and addiction seems to be quintessentially irrational.
對(duì)該問題符合邏輯的回答出現(xiàn)在1988年。凱文?M?墨菲(Kevin M. Murphy)和諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主加里?貝克(Gary Becker)發(fā)表了《理性上癮理論》(A Theory of Rational Addiction)一書，自此定義了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家研究上癮的方法。該理論很容易闡述：癮君子選擇了自己的毒藥，盡管他們知道容易上癮，并且非常危險(xiǎn)，他們這樣做的原因是，他們期望上癮帶來的興奮會(huì)超過它帶來的痛苦。
The logical response appeared in 1988. A Theory of Rational Addiction was published by Kevin M. Murphy and Nobel laureate Gary Becker, and has defined economists’ approaches to addiction ever since. The theory is easy to state: it is that addicts choose their poison despite knowing that it is habit-forming and dangerous, and they do so because they expect the highs to outweigh the lows.
即使其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)此也持懷疑態(tài)度。“他們不知道自己在說什么，”托馬斯?謝林(Thomas Schelling)獲得諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)不久后遇見我時(shí)說。謝林試圖戒除煙癮已經(jīng)有多年時(shí)間了。
Even other economists are sceptical. “They don’t know what they’re talking about,” opined Thomas Schelling when I met him shortly after he, too, was awarded the Nobel prize in economics. Schelling had spent years trying to kick his tobacco addiction.
然而，理性上癮方法可能并沒有它看上去那樣荒謬。一些習(xí)慣的養(yǎng)成是符合理性的。對(duì)我而言，跟女朋友約會(huì)已經(jīng)足夠形成習(xí)慣，以至最后向她求婚了。到目前為止，我并不后悔。
Yet perhaps the rational addiction approach is not quite as absurd as it seems. Some habits are rational to acquire. Dating my girlfriend was habit-forming enough for me to ask her to be my wife. So far I have no regrets.
將決定喝咖啡或開始約會(huì)與決定抽煙或注射海洛因相比，似乎頗為荒謬，但如果貝克和墨菲是對(duì)的，那么這種差別就不是性質(zhì)上的，而是程度上的。 It seems absurd to compare the decision to drink coffee or start dating with the decision to smoke cigarettes or inject heroin, but if Becker and Murphy are right the difference is not of kind, but of degree.
理性癮君子應(yīng)當(dāng)具備某些行為特征。舉例來說，他們不僅應(yīng)當(dāng)對(duì)當(dāng)前的價(jià)格上漲做出反應(yīng)，還應(yīng)當(dāng)對(duì)未來預(yù)期中的價(jià)格上漲做出反應(yīng)。如果海洛因的價(jià)格可能上漲，那么理性的癮君子就應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮在價(jià)格上漲之前戒掉毒癮。
Rational addicts should behave in certain ways. They should, for instance, respond not just to current price increases but to expected future price hikes. If heroin is likely to get more expensive, rational addicts should consider trying to quit before that happens.
癮君子對(duì)于持久的價(jià)格變化甚至可能比非癮君子更加敏感。由于上癮具有自我增強(qiáng)的特性，因此當(dāng)理性癮君子想戒癮的時(shí)候，突然戒除法是做到這一點(diǎn)的高效率途徑。
Addicts may even be more sensitive to lasting price-shifts than non-addicts. And since addiction is self-reinforcing, when the rational addict wants to quit, cold turkey is the efficient way to do it.
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家已經(jīng)找到了一些證據(jù)來支持這些論點(diǎn)：帕梅拉?莫比麗亞(Pamela Mobilia)發(fā)現(xiàn)，如果賭客預(yù)計(jì)賽馬莊家的收入會(huì)增加（這將增加賭癮的成本），他們就會(huì)減少賭注；尼爾斯?奧萊卡恩斯(Nilss Olekalns)和彼得?巴茲利(Peter Bardsley)發(fā)現(xiàn)，喝咖啡上癮的人也表現(xiàn)出相似的先見之明；菲利浦?庫(kù)克(Philip Cook)和喬治?陶亨(George Tauchen)發(fā)現(xiàn)，當(dāng)美國(guó)一些縣提高酒稅時(shí)，肝硬化發(fā)病率比整體消費(fèi)水平的下降幅度更大，表明減少飲酒量最多的是酗酒者。
Economists have found some evidence to support these ideas: Pamela Mobilia finds that betting at racetracks falls in anticipation of increases in bookies’ takings, which would make the gambling habit more costly; Nilss Olekalns and Peter Bardsley find that coffee addicts show similar foresight; Philip Cook and George Tauchen found that when some US counties raised taxes on alcohol, liver cirrhosis fell more sharply than overall consumption, suggesting that it was the alcoholics who cut back most.
我自己的咖啡癮完全是理性的：我正在寫一本新書，隨著最后期限的臨近，我喝的咖啡越來越多，盡管我已經(jīng)開始依賴咖啡因。在交稿后，我在度假時(shí)采用了突然戒除法，因?yàn)槲颐靼祝?dāng)我在威爾士海岸漫步時(shí)，頭疼和精神萎靡的痛苦程度要輕得多。
My own addiction was perfectly rational: I’m working on a new book, and as deadlines loomed I drank more and more coffee, even though I was becoming dependent on the caffeine. Manuscript submitted, I went cold turkey on holiday, knowing that the headache and sluggishness of mind would be both less painful and less important while wandering around the Welsh coast.
當(dāng)然，這只是咖啡因。但即使是吸食海洛因的人也可以在上癮后，在形勢(shì)逼迫下戒掉。心理學(xué)家李?羅賓斯(Lee Robins)發(fā)現(xiàn)，在越戰(zhàn)期間，幾乎半數(shù)的美國(guó)士兵都吸食海洛因或者鴉片，但很少有人上癮，近90％的人在回到美國(guó)后就戒掉了毒癮。我自己絕對(duì)不想嘗試海洛因，但與我的咖啡癮一樣，開始吸毒和嘗試戒毒的決定似乎都是對(duì)環(huán)境的理性反應(yīng)。
That is only caffeine, of course. But even heroin users can addict themselves and then quit as circumstances dictate. The psychiatrist Lee Robins found that almost half of US soldiers used heroin or opium while in Vietnam, but rather fewer were actually addicted and almost 90 per cent of those kicked the habit upon returning to the US. I have absolutely no desire to try heroin myself, but it seems that both the decision to start and the decision to try to quit were, like my coffee habit, rational responses to circumstances.
我不得不指出，很多英國(guó)內(nèi)閣大臣在大學(xué)期間都抽大麻，但后來都戒掉了。但容我悄聲說一句，理性的或許不僅僅是癮君子，還有政客。
I can’t help noting that a large number of British cabinet ministers decided to smoke cannabis at university and then quit later. Whisper it softly, but perhaps not only addicts are rational, but politicians, too
I feel that it is time to share a secret. When I left on my holiday just over a week ago, I was fighting a battle with a deep-rooted addiction. I feel able to admit this, since over the course of my holiday I was able to go through cold turkey, conquer the addiction, and face the world clean.
從今以后，我只喝不含咖啡因的咖啡。上癮——即使是像過濾咖啡這樣溫和的東西——是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家不太可能解決的問題，因?yàn)槎鄶?shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論的預(yù)測(cè)都是建立在理性行為基礎(chǔ)上的，而上癮似乎在本質(zhì)上就是非理性的。
It’s decaffeinated coffee for me from now on. Addiction – even to something as benign as filter coffee - is an unlikely topic for an economist to tackle, because most economic theory is predicated on rational behaviour, and addiction seems to be quintessentially irrational.
對(duì)該問題符合邏輯的回答出現(xiàn)在1988年。凱文?M?墨菲(Kevin M. Murphy)和諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主加里?貝克(Gary Becker)發(fā)表了《理性上癮理論》(A Theory of Rational Addiction)一書，自此定義了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家研究上癮的方法。該理論很容易闡述：癮君子選擇了自己的毒藥，盡管他們知道容易上癮，并且非常危險(xiǎn)，他們這樣做的原因是，他們期望上癮帶來的興奮會(huì)超過它帶來的痛苦。
The logical response appeared in 1988. A Theory of Rational Addiction was published by Kevin M. Murphy and Nobel laureate Gary Becker, and has defined economists’ approaches to addiction ever since. The theory is easy to state: it is that addicts choose their poison despite knowing that it is habit-forming and dangerous, and they do so because they expect the highs to outweigh the lows.
即使其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)此也持懷疑態(tài)度。“他們不知道自己在說什么，”托馬斯?謝林(Thomas Schelling)獲得諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)不久后遇見我時(shí)說。謝林試圖戒除煙癮已經(jīng)有多年時(shí)間了。
Even other economists are sceptical. “They don’t know what they’re talking about,” opined Thomas Schelling when I met him shortly after he, too, was awarded the Nobel prize in economics. Schelling had spent years trying to kick his tobacco addiction.
然而，理性上癮方法可能并沒有它看上去那樣荒謬。一些習(xí)慣的養(yǎng)成是符合理性的。對(duì)我而言，跟女朋友約會(huì)已經(jīng)足夠形成習(xí)慣，以至最后向她求婚了。到目前為止，我并不后悔。
Yet perhaps the rational addiction approach is not quite as absurd as it seems. Some habits are rational to acquire. Dating my girlfriend was habit-forming enough for me to ask her to be my wife. So far I have no regrets.
將決定喝咖啡或開始約會(huì)與決定抽煙或注射海洛因相比，似乎頗為荒謬，但如果貝克和墨菲是對(duì)的，那么這種差別就不是性質(zhì)上的，而是程度上的。 It seems absurd to compare the decision to drink coffee or start dating with the decision to smoke cigarettes or inject heroin, but if Becker and Murphy are right the difference is not of kind, but of degree.
理性癮君子應(yīng)當(dāng)具備某些行為特征。舉例來說，他們不僅應(yīng)當(dāng)對(duì)當(dāng)前的價(jià)格上漲做出反應(yīng)，還應(yīng)當(dāng)對(duì)未來預(yù)期中的價(jià)格上漲做出反應(yīng)。如果海洛因的價(jià)格可能上漲，那么理性的癮君子就應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮在價(jià)格上漲之前戒掉毒癮。
Rational addicts should behave in certain ways. They should, for instance, respond not just to current price increases but to expected future price hikes. If heroin is likely to get more expensive, rational addicts should consider trying to quit before that happens.
癮君子對(duì)于持久的價(jià)格變化甚至可能比非癮君子更加敏感。由于上癮具有自我增強(qiáng)的特性，因此當(dāng)理性癮君子想戒癮的時(shí)候，突然戒除法是做到這一點(diǎn)的高效率途徑。
Addicts may even be more sensitive to lasting price-shifts than non-addicts. And since addiction is self-reinforcing, when the rational addict wants to quit, cold turkey is the efficient way to do it.
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家已經(jīng)找到了一些證據(jù)來支持這些論點(diǎn)：帕梅拉?莫比麗亞(Pamela Mobilia)發(fā)現(xiàn)，如果賭客預(yù)計(jì)賽馬莊家的收入會(huì)增加（這將增加賭癮的成本），他們就會(huì)減少賭注；尼爾斯?奧萊卡恩斯(Nilss Olekalns)和彼得?巴茲利(Peter Bardsley)發(fā)現(xiàn)，喝咖啡上癮的人也表現(xiàn)出相似的先見之明；菲利浦?庫(kù)克(Philip Cook)和喬治?陶亨(George Tauchen)發(fā)現(xiàn)，當(dāng)美國(guó)一些縣提高酒稅時(shí)，肝硬化發(fā)病率比整體消費(fèi)水平的下降幅度更大，表明減少飲酒量最多的是酗酒者。
Economists have found some evidence to support these ideas: Pamela Mobilia finds that betting at racetracks falls in anticipation of increases in bookies’ takings, which would make the gambling habit more costly; Nilss Olekalns and Peter Bardsley find that coffee addicts show similar foresight; Philip Cook and George Tauchen found that when some US counties raised taxes on alcohol, liver cirrhosis fell more sharply than overall consumption, suggesting that it was the alcoholics who cut back most.
我自己的咖啡癮完全是理性的：我正在寫一本新書，隨著最后期限的臨近，我喝的咖啡越來越多，盡管我已經(jīng)開始依賴咖啡因。在交稿后，我在度假時(shí)采用了突然戒除法，因?yàn)槲颐靼祝?dāng)我在威爾士海岸漫步時(shí)，頭疼和精神萎靡的痛苦程度要輕得多。
My own addiction was perfectly rational: I’m working on a new book, and as deadlines loomed I drank more and more coffee, even though I was becoming dependent on the caffeine. Manuscript submitted, I went cold turkey on holiday, knowing that the headache and sluggishness of mind would be both less painful and less important while wandering around the Welsh coast.
當(dāng)然，這只是咖啡因。但即使是吸食海洛因的人也可以在上癮后，在形勢(shì)逼迫下戒掉。心理學(xué)家李?羅賓斯(Lee Robins)發(fā)現(xiàn)，在越戰(zhàn)期間，幾乎半數(shù)的美國(guó)士兵都吸食海洛因或者鴉片，但很少有人上癮，近90％的人在回到美國(guó)后就戒掉了毒癮。我自己絕對(duì)不想嘗試海洛因，但與我的咖啡癮一樣，開始吸毒和嘗試戒毒的決定似乎都是對(duì)環(huán)境的理性反應(yīng)。
That is only caffeine, of course. But even heroin users can addict themselves and then quit as circumstances dictate. The psychiatrist Lee Robins found that almost half of US soldiers used heroin or opium while in Vietnam, but rather fewer were actually addicted and almost 90 per cent of those kicked the habit upon returning to the US. I have absolutely no desire to try heroin myself, but it seems that both the decision to start and the decision to try to quit were, like my coffee habit, rational responses to circumstances.
我不得不指出，很多英國(guó)內(nèi)閣大臣在大學(xué)期間都抽大麻，但后來都戒掉了。但容我悄聲說一句，理性的或許不僅僅是癮君子，還有政客。
I can’t help noting that a large number of British cabinet ministers decided to smoke cannabis at university and then quit later. Whisper it softly, but perhaps not only addicts are rational, but politicians, too