文章最后我就用這2道ARGUMENT真題來讓大家體會一下如何填空，由于篇幅有限，所以我直接給出了答案，希望大家在自己練習“滿分魔板填空法”的時候先自己按照這兩道真題題目本身進行填空，再對照我的標準答案，只有這樣才能夠體會到“滿分魔板填空法”的精髓所在。
例題一：The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
“Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and restore hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View’s tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell’s economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and restore hotel similar to those in Ocean View.
題目結論：末句。
1. 在兩個事物之間進行的弱類比——錯誤類比(False analogy)/不全面比較或有選擇比較(incomplete comparison or selected comparison)
題目通過與類似事物的比較得出關于某一事物的結論(城市、學校、公司)但表層的共性并不能否定更深層次的差異。/比較兩個事物時，只比較少數(shù)幾個方面，或只比較對自己的觀點有利的方面，同時忽略或壓制其他重要方面。
關鍵判斷詞：Similar
改錯模板：The argument relies on what might be a false analogy between OV and H. In order for a new municipal golf course and restore hotel in OV to serve as models which H should emulate, the major must assume that all the relevant circumstances involving the general and initial economy are essentially the same. However this assumption is unwarranted. For example, the argument overlooks the possibility that the increase of OV’s tax revenues was motivated by other factors/concerns besides the new building in OV. Perhaps those in power changed some policies regarding OV’s tax revenues. As for 30 percent, perhaps the starting point is very low. Or perhaps the improvement of OV’s tax revenues is only because a dominant geographical location in OV.
2.混淆因果關系和相關性(兩個現(xiàn)象一起發(fā)生)和時間的先后次序(一個現(xiàn)象在另一個現(xiàn)象之后發(fā)生)。
關鍵判斷詞：Two years ago/during the past two years
改錯模板：The argument is based on a known correlation between building a new municipal golf course accompanied by a restore hotel and the enhancement of OV’s tax revenues, that the latter is attributable, at least partly, to the former. Yet the correlation alone amounts to scant evidence of the claimed cause-and–effect relationship. Perhaps the growth of OV’s tax revenues can be caused by other factors as well, which are absent in these particular states but present in all the others. Moreover, the argument overlooks the fact that two years doesn’t mean forever. The arguer has not accounted for the possibility that the geographical and demographic differences might even lead to opposite result. If this is the case, then the conclusion that H should follow the example of OV would lack any merits whatsoever.
3.認為所有事物是恒定的
關鍵判斷詞：Two years ago/during the past two years
改錯模板：The arguer’s claim unfairly infers form OV’s comparatively promotion of tax revenues in the past that H should copy/indiscriminately imitate. Absent evidence to support this inference, it is just as likely that the global economy had been gliding. For that matter, perhaps the OV’s experience would contribute less to H or even nothing. Any of these assumptions, if true, would serve to undermine the claim that H should do the same thing as OV.
例題二：Now is the time to invest in a PLG franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trend: PLG is already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness. Furthermore, last year’s sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million and purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled. Investing now in a PLG franchise will guarantee a quick profit.
題目結論：末句。
1.整體特征不一定適合于群體中的每個個體；同樣，局部特征也不能表明整體特征。
關鍵判斷詞：your town，500 locations
改錯模板：The argument assumes that the general trend that PLG is already popular among customers infers the trend in specific regions upon which the argument relies. Yet, the brochure fails to offer any evidence to substantiate this crucial assumption. Absent such evidence, it is just likely that PLG may not be so popular in the proposed town as it in the 500 locations; for that matter, perhaps in the mentioned region the people’s hobbies are just on the contrary, in which event the arguer’s recommendation would amount to especially poor advice.
2.急于概括：在證據(jù)不足的情況下作出普遍的概括
/因果關系簡單化：忽略了因果關系的復雜性：一因到多果/多因合一果
/錯誤的兩難處境：把復雜的問題簡化為非此即彼的兩種選擇
改錯模板：The recommendation depends on the assumption that no alternative means of influencing people’s concern on personal health are available. Yet no evidence is offered to substantiate this assumption. Admittedly, the last year’s sales of books, magazines and home exercise equipment are some evidence that could ensure a quick profit in some sense. However, it is entirely possible that other relevant factors might result in no profit at all. Perhaps a much quicker profit should result from investing in another program. Without considering and ruling out these and other alternative means of reducing profit, the arguer cannot confidently conclude that PLG franchise is a wise investment.
3.數(shù)據(jù)類問題(survey/study/poll)
(1) What procedure is used?
調查的結果是否具有代表性(representative)，是否遵循了隨機性原則(the principal of random )：全體成員有同樣的機會(the same opportunity)被抽到不能事先把一部分成員排除在外。
(2) How large was the sample?
抽樣調查必須保證從調查對象的總體(the whole)中抽取足夠大(adequate/sufficient)的樣本，否則，調查的結果就缺少可信度(credibility)。
(3)Are the statistics misleadingly vague?
調查過程與結果的敘述應該使用明確的數(shù)字，如：具體的數(shù)字、比例或百分比。而不要模糊如：many, majority,以及不知道底數(shù)的百分比。
(4)Are the statistics complete?
作者只提供了部分相關數(shù)據(jù)
(5)Are the statistics important?
數(shù)據(jù)與作者試圖證明的假設之間沒有必然的聯(lián)系
(6)When was the survey conducted?
調查的時間可能影響結果的代表性如：人們在選舉前對政治新聞的興趣可能變大，中國CCTV-5對NBA 火箭隊的興趣等
關鍵判斷詞：National surveys
(樣本不具備代表性)改錯模板：(1) One problem with the argument involves the cited statistics about sales of books and magazines. It is unreasonable to draw any conclusions about their sales in the future based on statistics regarding last year’s. Depending on the total number of books and magazines, it is entirely possible that those on personal health are not representative of the whole. For example, perhaps the sales regarding sports totaled more than $50 billion. If so, then the arguer’s recommendation might amount to poor advice for us.
(收集數(shù)據(jù)過程有誤)改錯模板：(2)The survey methodology might be problematic in two aspects. First, we are not informed whether the survey required that respondents choose their concern between alternatives. If it did, then the results might distort the preferences of respondents, who might very well prefer a certain one not provided in the survey. Secondly, we are not informed whether survey responses were anonymous, or even confidential. If they were not, the respondents might have provided responses that they believed those in power would approve of, regardless of whether the responses were truthful. In either event, the survey results would be unreliable for the purpose of drawing any conclusions about people’s real increasing inclination.
例題一：The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
“Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and restore hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View’s tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell’s economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and restore hotel similar to those in Ocean View.
題目結論：末句。
1. 在兩個事物之間進行的弱類比——錯誤類比(False analogy)/不全面比較或有選擇比較(incomplete comparison or selected comparison)
題目通過與類似事物的比較得出關于某一事物的結論(城市、學校、公司)但表層的共性并不能否定更深層次的差異。/比較兩個事物時，只比較少數(shù)幾個方面，或只比較對自己的觀點有利的方面，同時忽略或壓制其他重要方面。
關鍵判斷詞：Similar
改錯模板：The argument relies on what might be a false analogy between OV and H. In order for a new municipal golf course and restore hotel in OV to serve as models which H should emulate, the major must assume that all the relevant circumstances involving the general and initial economy are essentially the same. However this assumption is unwarranted. For example, the argument overlooks the possibility that the increase of OV’s tax revenues was motivated by other factors/concerns besides the new building in OV. Perhaps those in power changed some policies regarding OV’s tax revenues. As for 30 percent, perhaps the starting point is very low. Or perhaps the improvement of OV’s tax revenues is only because a dominant geographical location in OV.
2.混淆因果關系和相關性(兩個現(xiàn)象一起發(fā)生)和時間的先后次序(一個現(xiàn)象在另一個現(xiàn)象之后發(fā)生)。
關鍵判斷詞：Two years ago/during the past two years
改錯模板：The argument is based on a known correlation between building a new municipal golf course accompanied by a restore hotel and the enhancement of OV’s tax revenues, that the latter is attributable, at least partly, to the former. Yet the correlation alone amounts to scant evidence of the claimed cause-and–effect relationship. Perhaps the growth of OV’s tax revenues can be caused by other factors as well, which are absent in these particular states but present in all the others. Moreover, the argument overlooks the fact that two years doesn’t mean forever. The arguer has not accounted for the possibility that the geographical and demographic differences might even lead to opposite result. If this is the case, then the conclusion that H should follow the example of OV would lack any merits whatsoever.
3.認為所有事物是恒定的
關鍵判斷詞：Two years ago/during the past two years
改錯模板：The arguer’s claim unfairly infers form OV’s comparatively promotion of tax revenues in the past that H should copy/indiscriminately imitate. Absent evidence to support this inference, it is just as likely that the global economy had been gliding. For that matter, perhaps the OV’s experience would contribute less to H or even nothing. Any of these assumptions, if true, would serve to undermine the claim that H should do the same thing as OV.
例題二：Now is the time to invest in a PLG franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trend: PLG is already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness. Furthermore, last year’s sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million and purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled. Investing now in a PLG franchise will guarantee a quick profit.
題目結論：末句。
1.整體特征不一定適合于群體中的每個個體；同樣，局部特征也不能表明整體特征。
關鍵判斷詞：your town，500 locations
改錯模板：The argument assumes that the general trend that PLG is already popular among customers infers the trend in specific regions upon which the argument relies. Yet, the brochure fails to offer any evidence to substantiate this crucial assumption. Absent such evidence, it is just likely that PLG may not be so popular in the proposed town as it in the 500 locations; for that matter, perhaps in the mentioned region the people’s hobbies are just on the contrary, in which event the arguer’s recommendation would amount to especially poor advice.
2.急于概括：在證據(jù)不足的情況下作出普遍的概括
/因果關系簡單化：忽略了因果關系的復雜性：一因到多果/多因合一果
/錯誤的兩難處境：把復雜的問題簡化為非此即彼的兩種選擇
改錯模板：The recommendation depends on the assumption that no alternative means of influencing people’s concern on personal health are available. Yet no evidence is offered to substantiate this assumption. Admittedly, the last year’s sales of books, magazines and home exercise equipment are some evidence that could ensure a quick profit in some sense. However, it is entirely possible that other relevant factors might result in no profit at all. Perhaps a much quicker profit should result from investing in another program. Without considering and ruling out these and other alternative means of reducing profit, the arguer cannot confidently conclude that PLG franchise is a wise investment.
3.數(shù)據(jù)類問題(survey/study/poll)
(1) What procedure is used?
調查的結果是否具有代表性(representative)，是否遵循了隨機性原則(the principal of random )：全體成員有同樣的機會(the same opportunity)被抽到不能事先把一部分成員排除在外。
(2) How large was the sample?
抽樣調查必須保證從調查對象的總體(the whole)中抽取足夠大(adequate/sufficient)的樣本，否則，調查的結果就缺少可信度(credibility)。
(3)Are the statistics misleadingly vague?
調查過程與結果的敘述應該使用明確的數(shù)字，如：具體的數(shù)字、比例或百分比。而不要模糊如：many, majority,以及不知道底數(shù)的百分比。
(4)Are the statistics complete?
作者只提供了部分相關數(shù)據(jù)
(5)Are the statistics important?
數(shù)據(jù)與作者試圖證明的假設之間沒有必然的聯(lián)系
(6)When was the survey conducted?
調查的時間可能影響結果的代表性如：人們在選舉前對政治新聞的興趣可能變大，中國CCTV-5對NBA 火箭隊的興趣等
關鍵判斷詞：National surveys
(樣本不具備代表性)改錯模板：(1) One problem with the argument involves the cited statistics about sales of books and magazines. It is unreasonable to draw any conclusions about their sales in the future based on statistics regarding last year’s. Depending on the total number of books and magazines, it is entirely possible that those on personal health are not representative of the whole. For example, perhaps the sales regarding sports totaled more than $50 billion. If so, then the arguer’s recommendation might amount to poor advice for us.
(收集數(shù)據(jù)過程有誤)改錯模板：(2)The survey methodology might be problematic in two aspects. First, we are not informed whether the survey required that respondents choose their concern between alternatives. If it did, then the results might distort the preferences of respondents, who might very well prefer a certain one not provided in the survey. Secondly, we are not informed whether survey responses were anonymous, or even confidential. If they were not, the respondents might have provided responses that they believed those in power would approve of, regardless of whether the responses were truthful. In either event, the survey results would be unreliable for the purpose of drawing any conclusions about people’s real increasing inclination.