As we cross the threshold into the next century, human society is beginning its move from the industrial economy into the knowledge-based economy. The general trend is that the 21st century will be a new era of the knowledge-based economy. As mentioned in my previous article, the most notable characteristics of this new era of the knowledge-based economy is information-driven economic growth and globalisation. This article will deal with the information aspects of the knowledge-based economy.
In more specific terms, the application of information to the economy is best exemplified in the networking of communication, or the so-called Net economy. This Net refers to the computer network of satellites, optic fibres, cables and telephone lines that connect the whole world. With the click of a mouse, information from the other end of the globe will be transported to your computer screen at the dizzying speed of seven-and-a-half times around the earth per second.
Singapore has an early start in networking. If we deposit a sum of money at a particular POSB branch, we can withdraw our money from any other POSB branches in Singapore. This was an early step in networking. The networks of the future would have greater significance and implications.
Generally, there are two aspects of the Net. One is the networking between businesses and their customers. The other is the networking between individual businesses, or the regional and even global networking between industrial production and scientific research. The examples of the POSB and Internet shopping belong to the first aspect.
From a long-term perspective, Internet shopping is but a low-level aspect of the Net, and it is not likely to become the most important trend. After all, most merchandise are unsuitable for Internet shopping. Besides, if everyone shops on the Net, what will happen to our Orchard Road？ Or New York's Broadway？ A friend said if he were to force his daughter to shop on the Net instead of letting her shop at Orchard Road, the daughter would rather kill herself.
Therefore, the second aspect of the Net will be more important. Its significance goes beyond that of connecting businesses. There have been reports of simultaneous consultation of doctors from all over the world, surgery on the Net and cooperation in research and development made possible by the Internet. These are early examples of high-level networking.
The president of Intel, producer of the Pentium micro-processors, feels that the new synergy between computers and Net technology will have multiple implications for industry of the future. The sheer power of electronic commerce （e-commerce） will change the face of trade dramatically. Sporting goods company Puma was on the verge of bankruptcy back in 1992. From 1993, Puma began to diffuse its prodution, logistics and marketing divisions to 80 Net enterprises worldwide, and the results were spectacular. Puma was transformed from a sickly feline into a magnificent beast. The reason for this transformation is that intra- and inter-business electronic links greatly increase the efficiency of production, planning, the collecting of information and data exchange. As the business is rapidly being rationalised, production figures go up while costs come down.
The development of e-commerce may well bring the world into a brand new era of “electronic currency”。 With the emergence of a phantom electronic currency, everyone of us would be affected. At the moment, developed areas in Europe, the United States and Asia are already studying the possibility of an electronic currency. The main publication of the Association of Electrical Engineers of America even devoted a special edition to electronic currency.
Electronic currency is not only about currency. It refers to an entire finance system on the Net. It includes a virtual numeric currency, an electronic system of withdrawals, transfers and loans, and Smartcards （electronic purses） of all shapes and sizes. The appearance of an electronic currency system implies the emergence of “virtual banks” and “virtual enterprises”。
Actually, the rudimentary beginnings of a virtual bank appeared in the US in 1995 as the Security First Network Bank, the world's first Internet bank. Although it is a small and insignificant bank, it represents the trend of the future. In time to come, we may even have to forsake the familiar paper currency.
As the Net pushes the economy ahead rapidly, the economy is also bringing the Net market forward, resulting in the Internet itself becoming the world's largest emerging market. Of course, this is just the beginning. Although there are many companies which made huge profits investing in the Internet market, they tend to be small companies, like Yahoo, which has been basking in the limelight for quite some time. To date, most companies are making losses.
The Net and e-commerce will foster a large number of freelancers, and this will affect social structure in a big way. The competition for technological superiority in the era of the knowledge-based economy will also be more intense. This will definitely promote greater （even global）
and more efficient cooperation to maintain competitiveness. The highly efficient research and development work conducted on the worldwide Net is best suited for small and medium enterprises to band together and break the monopolies of the“giants”。
It is not hard to see that within this new Net economy, especially with its electronic currency and virtual banks, lurks an imminent danger. The writer will elaborate on this danger after expounding the other characteristic of the era of the knowledge-based economy —— globalisation.
經(jīng)濟(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)化方興未艾
在當(dāng)今跨世紀(jì)的年代,人類社會正開始從工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)這第二階段開始轉(zhuǎn)入知識經(jīng)濟(jì)的第三階段。21世紀(jì)將會是知識經(jīng)濟(jì)的新時(shí)代。這是一個(gè)總趨勢。以前有文章也已經(jīng)談到,知識經(jīng)濟(jì)新時(shí)代最顯著的特點(diǎn)就是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的信息化和全球化。本文先展望一下信息化這個(gè)方面。
具體說,信息化主要是反映在溝通手段的網(wǎng)絡(luò)化,也就是所謂的網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟(jì)。這網(wǎng)絡(luò)就是指由衛(wèi)星、光纖、電纜和電話線路把世界各個(gè)角落聯(lián)系到一起的電腦網(wǎng)絡(luò)。只要用鼠標(biāo)一點(diǎn),在地球另一端的信息馬上就會以每秒鐘繞地球七周半的光速跑到你的電腦熒光屏上。
新加坡是網(wǎng)絡(luò)化開始得比較早的地區(qū)。我們在儲蓄銀行一個(gè)分行存了錢,可以在該行全島的任何其他分行取錢,就是網(wǎng)絡(luò)化的一個(gè)初步形式。只是未來的網(wǎng)絡(luò)化,其意義遠(yuǎn)為深而廣。
網(wǎng)絡(luò)化大致可以有兩個(gè)方面：一是企業(yè)與客戶之間供售關(guān)系的網(wǎng)絡(luò)化。二是各企業(yè)之間的業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)系,甚至是工業(yè)生產(chǎn)和科學(xué)研究在地區(qū)范圍內(nèi),以至于全球范圍內(nèi)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)化。銀行的例子和已出現(xiàn)的網(wǎng)上購物,就屬于第一個(gè)方面。
從長遠(yuǎn)看,網(wǎng)上購物僅僅是低層次的網(wǎng)絡(luò)化,未必會成為主要的趨向。畢竟大多數(shù)東西并不便于網(wǎng)上購物。何況,大家都在網(wǎng)上購物,我們的烏節(jié)路怎么辦,紐約的百老匯怎么辦？朋友說,要他的女兒在網(wǎng)上購物而不去烏節(jié)路,無異于逼她跳樓。
所以說,網(wǎng)絡(luò)化的第二個(gè)方面將會是主要的。它不僅僅只是商務(wù)聯(lián)系,其深遠(yuǎn)意義還在更高的層次上。曾報(bào)道過的全球醫(yī)生會診,網(wǎng)上外科手術(shù)和通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)協(xié)作科研,就是這種高層次網(wǎng)絡(luò)化的先例。
生產(chǎn)奔騰（Pentium）微處理器的英特爾公司總裁格羅夫（Grove）認(rèn)為,新的電腦和網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)的結(jié)合將會對未來產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來十倍速的影響。
通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)的電子商務(wù)（Electronic Commerce）的驚人威力會使貿(mào)易發(fā)生巨變。美洲豹體育用品公司（Puma）在92年已瀕臨破產(chǎn)。93年起美洲豹把生產(chǎn),后勤和銷售分散到全世界八十個(gè)電腦聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè),結(jié)果成績斐然,美洲豹從一只病貓恢復(fù)成了真正的猛獸。
其原因是這種企業(yè)內(nèi)部或企業(yè)之間的電子網(wǎng)絡(luò)大大提高了生產(chǎn)、統(tǒng)籌、信息綜合和資料交換的效率,使業(yè)務(wù)迅速合理化,不僅促進(jìn)了生產(chǎn),也大幅度地降低了成本。
電子商務(wù)的高度發(fā)展,很可能會把世界帶進(jìn)一個(gè)“電子貨幣”的嶄新時(shí)代。電子貨幣這個(gè)幽靈的出現(xiàn),實(shí)實(shí)在在會沖擊到我們每一個(gè)人。目前歐美和亞洲的先進(jìn)地區(qū)都已經(jīng)開始對電子貨幣進(jìn)行研究。今年初,最權(quán)威的美國電子電氣工程師協(xié)會的總刊還專門為電子貨幣出了一期專輯。
所謂電子貨幣,它并不只是單單指錢幣,而是泛指一個(gè)電子網(wǎng)絡(luò)化的金融系統(tǒng)。它包括真正的電子虛擬數(shù)字錢幣,電子出納轉(zhuǎn)帳借貸系統(tǒng)和各種形式的智慧卡（電子錢包）。電子貨幣系統(tǒng)的出現(xiàn)必然又會反過來導(dǎo)致“虛擬銀行”和“虛擬企業(yè)”的出現(xiàn)。
其實(shí),這種虛擬銀行的雛形,全球第一家網(wǎng)絡(luò)銀行（Security First Network Bank）早在1995年就已經(jīng)在美國出現(xiàn)。雖然它只是微不足道的一家小銀行,卻代表了未來的潮流。到時(shí)候,我們說不定真的會不得不告別那習(xí)慣了的紙幣。
在網(wǎng)絡(luò)化高速地推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的同時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)也反過來推動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)市場,使得網(wǎng)絡(luò)本身將成為全球的新興市場。當(dāng)然在目前而言,還僅僅是一個(gè)開始。盡管在投資網(wǎng)絡(luò)市場中賺大錢的公司已經(jīng)很多,但往往還是一些小公司。如出足風(fēng)頭的雅虎（Yahoo）就是一例。迄今為止,多數(shù)公司還是賠錢的。
網(wǎng)絡(luò)化和電子商務(wù)的潮流將會造就大量的自由職業(yè)者,對社會的結(jié)構(gòu)會造成深遠(yuǎn)的影響。知識經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代的科技競爭也會更激烈。這必定會促進(jìn)更大更廣以至在全球范圍進(jìn)行高效率的協(xié)作,以保持競爭力。這種全球網(wǎng)絡(luò)化的高效率科學(xué)研究尤其適合中小型企業(yè)聯(lián)合起來打破“巨人”的壟斷。
不難預(yù)見到,這種新的網(wǎng)絡(luò)化經(jīng)濟(jì),特別是電子貨幣和虛擬銀行,潛在著極為深刻的危機(jī)。在進(jìn)一步介紹了知識經(jīng)濟(jì)新時(shí)代另一個(gè)“全球化”的特點(diǎn)以后,筆者將試對其潛在的危機(jī)加以探討。
In more specific terms, the application of information to the economy is best exemplified in the networking of communication, or the so-called Net economy. This Net refers to the computer network of satellites, optic fibres, cables and telephone lines that connect the whole world. With the click of a mouse, information from the other end of the globe will be transported to your computer screen at the dizzying speed of seven-and-a-half times around the earth per second.
Singapore has an early start in networking. If we deposit a sum of money at a particular POSB branch, we can withdraw our money from any other POSB branches in Singapore. This was an early step in networking. The networks of the future would have greater significance and implications.
Generally, there are two aspects of the Net. One is the networking between businesses and their customers. The other is the networking between individual businesses, or the regional and even global networking between industrial production and scientific research. The examples of the POSB and Internet shopping belong to the first aspect.
From a long-term perspective, Internet shopping is but a low-level aspect of the Net, and it is not likely to become the most important trend. After all, most merchandise are unsuitable for Internet shopping. Besides, if everyone shops on the Net, what will happen to our Orchard Road？ Or New York's Broadway？ A friend said if he were to force his daughter to shop on the Net instead of letting her shop at Orchard Road, the daughter would rather kill herself.
Therefore, the second aspect of the Net will be more important. Its significance goes beyond that of connecting businesses. There have been reports of simultaneous consultation of doctors from all over the world, surgery on the Net and cooperation in research and development made possible by the Internet. These are early examples of high-level networking.
The president of Intel, producer of the Pentium micro-processors, feels that the new synergy between computers and Net technology will have multiple implications for industry of the future. The sheer power of electronic commerce （e-commerce） will change the face of trade dramatically. Sporting goods company Puma was on the verge of bankruptcy back in 1992. From 1993, Puma began to diffuse its prodution, logistics and marketing divisions to 80 Net enterprises worldwide, and the results were spectacular. Puma was transformed from a sickly feline into a magnificent beast. The reason for this transformation is that intra- and inter-business electronic links greatly increase the efficiency of production, planning, the collecting of information and data exchange. As the business is rapidly being rationalised, production figures go up while costs come down.
The development of e-commerce may well bring the world into a brand new era of “electronic currency”。 With the emergence of a phantom electronic currency, everyone of us would be affected. At the moment, developed areas in Europe, the United States and Asia are already studying the possibility of an electronic currency. The main publication of the Association of Electrical Engineers of America even devoted a special edition to electronic currency.
Electronic currency is not only about currency. It refers to an entire finance system on the Net. It includes a virtual numeric currency, an electronic system of withdrawals, transfers and loans, and Smartcards （electronic purses） of all shapes and sizes. The appearance of an electronic currency system implies the emergence of “virtual banks” and “virtual enterprises”。
Actually, the rudimentary beginnings of a virtual bank appeared in the US in 1995 as the Security First Network Bank, the world's first Internet bank. Although it is a small and insignificant bank, it represents the trend of the future. In time to come, we may even have to forsake the familiar paper currency.
As the Net pushes the economy ahead rapidly, the economy is also bringing the Net market forward, resulting in the Internet itself becoming the world's largest emerging market. Of course, this is just the beginning. Although there are many companies which made huge profits investing in the Internet market, they tend to be small companies, like Yahoo, which has been basking in the limelight for quite some time. To date, most companies are making losses.
The Net and e-commerce will foster a large number of freelancers, and this will affect social structure in a big way. The competition for technological superiority in the era of the knowledge-based economy will also be more intense. This will definitely promote greater （even global）
and more efficient cooperation to maintain competitiveness. The highly efficient research and development work conducted on the worldwide Net is best suited for small and medium enterprises to band together and break the monopolies of the“giants”。
It is not hard to see that within this new Net economy, especially with its electronic currency and virtual banks, lurks an imminent danger. The writer will elaborate on this danger after expounding the other characteristic of the era of the knowledge-based economy —— globalisation.
經(jīng)濟(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)化方興未艾
在當(dāng)今跨世紀(jì)的年代,人類社會正開始從工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)這第二階段開始轉(zhuǎn)入知識經(jīng)濟(jì)的第三階段。21世紀(jì)將會是知識經(jīng)濟(jì)的新時(shí)代。這是一個(gè)總趨勢。以前有文章也已經(jīng)談到,知識經(jīng)濟(jì)新時(shí)代最顯著的特點(diǎn)就是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的信息化和全球化。本文先展望一下信息化這個(gè)方面。
具體說,信息化主要是反映在溝通手段的網(wǎng)絡(luò)化,也就是所謂的網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟(jì)。這網(wǎng)絡(luò)就是指由衛(wèi)星、光纖、電纜和電話線路把世界各個(gè)角落聯(lián)系到一起的電腦網(wǎng)絡(luò)。只要用鼠標(biāo)一點(diǎn),在地球另一端的信息馬上就會以每秒鐘繞地球七周半的光速跑到你的電腦熒光屏上。
新加坡是網(wǎng)絡(luò)化開始得比較早的地區(qū)。我們在儲蓄銀行一個(gè)分行存了錢,可以在該行全島的任何其他分行取錢,就是網(wǎng)絡(luò)化的一個(gè)初步形式。只是未來的網(wǎng)絡(luò)化,其意義遠(yuǎn)為深而廣。
網(wǎng)絡(luò)化大致可以有兩個(gè)方面：一是企業(yè)與客戶之間供售關(guān)系的網(wǎng)絡(luò)化。二是各企業(yè)之間的業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)系,甚至是工業(yè)生產(chǎn)和科學(xué)研究在地區(qū)范圍內(nèi),以至于全球范圍內(nèi)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)化。銀行的例子和已出現(xiàn)的網(wǎng)上購物,就屬于第一個(gè)方面。
從長遠(yuǎn)看,網(wǎng)上購物僅僅是低層次的網(wǎng)絡(luò)化,未必會成為主要的趨向。畢竟大多數(shù)東西并不便于網(wǎng)上購物。何況,大家都在網(wǎng)上購物,我們的烏節(jié)路怎么辦,紐約的百老匯怎么辦？朋友說,要他的女兒在網(wǎng)上購物而不去烏節(jié)路,無異于逼她跳樓。
所以說,網(wǎng)絡(luò)化的第二個(gè)方面將會是主要的。它不僅僅只是商務(wù)聯(lián)系,其深遠(yuǎn)意義還在更高的層次上。曾報(bào)道過的全球醫(yī)生會診,網(wǎng)上外科手術(shù)和通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)協(xié)作科研,就是這種高層次網(wǎng)絡(luò)化的先例。
生產(chǎn)奔騰（Pentium）微處理器的英特爾公司總裁格羅夫（Grove）認(rèn)為,新的電腦和網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)的結(jié)合將會對未來產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來十倍速的影響。
通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)的電子商務(wù)（Electronic Commerce）的驚人威力會使貿(mào)易發(fā)生巨變。美洲豹體育用品公司（Puma）在92年已瀕臨破產(chǎn)。93年起美洲豹把生產(chǎn),后勤和銷售分散到全世界八十個(gè)電腦聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè),結(jié)果成績斐然,美洲豹從一只病貓恢復(fù)成了真正的猛獸。
其原因是這種企業(yè)內(nèi)部或企業(yè)之間的電子網(wǎng)絡(luò)大大提高了生產(chǎn)、統(tǒng)籌、信息綜合和資料交換的效率,使業(yè)務(wù)迅速合理化,不僅促進(jìn)了生產(chǎn),也大幅度地降低了成本。
電子商務(wù)的高度發(fā)展,很可能會把世界帶進(jìn)一個(gè)“電子貨幣”的嶄新時(shí)代。電子貨幣這個(gè)幽靈的出現(xiàn),實(shí)實(shí)在在會沖擊到我們每一個(gè)人。目前歐美和亞洲的先進(jìn)地區(qū)都已經(jīng)開始對電子貨幣進(jìn)行研究。今年初,最權(quán)威的美國電子電氣工程師協(xié)會的總刊還專門為電子貨幣出了一期專輯。
所謂電子貨幣,它并不只是單單指錢幣,而是泛指一個(gè)電子網(wǎng)絡(luò)化的金融系統(tǒng)。它包括真正的電子虛擬數(shù)字錢幣,電子出納轉(zhuǎn)帳借貸系統(tǒng)和各種形式的智慧卡（電子錢包）。電子貨幣系統(tǒng)的出現(xiàn)必然又會反過來導(dǎo)致“虛擬銀行”和“虛擬企業(yè)”的出現(xiàn)。
其實(shí),這種虛擬銀行的雛形,全球第一家網(wǎng)絡(luò)銀行（Security First Network Bank）早在1995年就已經(jīng)在美國出現(xiàn)。雖然它只是微不足道的一家小銀行,卻代表了未來的潮流。到時(shí)候,我們說不定真的會不得不告別那習(xí)慣了的紙幣。
在網(wǎng)絡(luò)化高速地推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的同時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)也反過來推動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)市場,使得網(wǎng)絡(luò)本身將成為全球的新興市場。當(dāng)然在目前而言,還僅僅是一個(gè)開始。盡管在投資網(wǎng)絡(luò)市場中賺大錢的公司已經(jīng)很多,但往往還是一些小公司。如出足風(fēng)頭的雅虎（Yahoo）就是一例。迄今為止,多數(shù)公司還是賠錢的。
網(wǎng)絡(luò)化和電子商務(wù)的潮流將會造就大量的自由職業(yè)者,對社會的結(jié)構(gòu)會造成深遠(yuǎn)的影響。知識經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代的科技競爭也會更激烈。這必定會促進(jìn)更大更廣以至在全球范圍進(jìn)行高效率的協(xié)作,以保持競爭力。這種全球網(wǎng)絡(luò)化的高效率科學(xué)研究尤其適合中小型企業(yè)聯(lián)合起來打破“巨人”的壟斷。
不難預(yù)見到,這種新的網(wǎng)絡(luò)化經(jīng)濟(jì),特別是電子貨幣和虛擬銀行,潛在著極為深刻的危機(jī)。在進(jìn)一步介紹了知識經(jīng)濟(jì)新時(shí)代另一個(gè)“全球化”的特點(diǎn)以后,筆者將試對其潛在的危機(jī)加以探討。