2011秋季翻譯資格口筆譯真題及答案回憶
三級(jí)口譯《口譯實(shí)務(wù)》
漢譯英真題：駐巴基斯坦大使劉健在第十屆“漢語(yǔ)橋”世界大學(xué)生中文比賽巴基斯坦賽區(qū)決賽上的講話
來(lái)源地址：外交部(2011年)www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/gxh/tyb/zwbd/t821399.htm
女士們，先生們!
早上好!
我非常高興出席今天在這里舉行的第十屆“漢語(yǔ)橋”世界大學(xué)生中文比賽巴基斯坦賽區(qū)決賽。我想對(duì)巴國(guó)立現(xiàn)代語(yǔ)言大學(xué)和伊斯蘭堡孔子學(xué)院為此次比賽做出的各項(xiàng)細(xì)心周到的安排表示感謝。我還想向參賽選手們表示祝賀。你們非凡的語(yǔ)言天賦、流利的漢語(yǔ)水平和對(duì)中國(guó)文化的理解令我印象深刻。我相信，你們一定能在決賽 中脫穎而出，創(chuàng)造佳績(jī)。誕生于2002年的“漢語(yǔ)橋”世界大學(xué)生中文比賽至今已經(jīng)吸引了來(lái)自全世界70多個(gè)國(guó)家的上萬(wàn)名學(xué)生參賽，極大推動(dòng)了中文普及并掀起了一股學(xué)習(xí)漢語(yǔ)的熱潮。我們應(yīng)當(dāng)為它喝彩。
在今天這個(gè)場(chǎng)合，我想就語(yǔ)言談一些個(gè)人看法。
語(yǔ)言是技能。掌握一門語(yǔ)言無(wú)疑是多了一項(xiàng)交流溝通的技能，對(duì)個(gè)人事業(yè)發(fā)展有好處。由于中巴特殊的“全天候”戰(zhàn)略伙伴關(guān)系，巴基斯坦學(xué)生學(xué)習(xí)漢語(yǔ)擁有更為 有利的條件。中國(guó)總理溫家寶去年底的成功訪問(wèn)極大豐富了兩國(guó)人文交流的內(nèi)涵。在《聯(lián)合聲明》中，雙方同意全面拓展人文交流，重點(diǎn)加強(qiáng)中文和烏爾都語(yǔ)教育。 中方今年將邀請(qǐng)100名巴基斯坦高中生赴華參加“漢語(yǔ)橋”夏令營(yíng)，并繼續(xù)向伊斯蘭堡孔子學(xué)院提供獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金。中方還將自今年起，在三年之內(nèi)向巴方提供500名 政府獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金名額?？梢哉f(shuō)，你們學(xué)習(xí)漢語(yǔ)正逢其時(shí)。
語(yǔ)言是橋梁。第13任中國(guó)駐巴大使張春賢能夠說(shuō)一口流利的烏爾都語(yǔ)。我知道我的很多同事對(duì)學(xué)習(xí)烏爾都語(yǔ)懷有濃厚的興趣。我還知道，很多巴基斯坦朋友會(huì)說(shuō) 漢語(yǔ)，其中就有巴國(guó)立現(xiàn)代語(yǔ)言大學(xué)和伊斯蘭堡孔子學(xué)院的校友。我們?yōu)樗麄凃湴?。今天，我還想特別提及伊斯蘭堡孔子學(xué)院的學(xué)生。去年溫總理來(lái)巴，我們?cè)诎椭?友誼中心舉辦了這樣一場(chǎng)活動(dòng)，就是兩國(guó)總理與為中巴友誼做出突出貢獻(xiàn)人士座談。座談會(huì)臨近結(jié)束的時(shí)候，伊斯蘭堡孔子學(xué)院學(xué)員朱雷和14歲女孩拉比亞分別用 中文和英文深情并茂地朗誦了一首題為“巴中友誼”的詩(shī)。在場(chǎng)觀眾深受感染，有人不禁落淚。這就是語(yǔ)言直通心靈的力量。
語(yǔ)言是窗戶。它不僅僅是一套符號(hào)系統(tǒng)，更是傳達(dá)文化內(nèi)涵的重要載體。有人曾說(shuō)，“語(yǔ)言是思想的服裝”，“文字是思想的符號(hào)”。學(xué)習(xí)漢語(yǔ)，就像為中華文化 開了一扇窗。透過(guò)它，你可以看到中國(guó)人的生活方式、行為準(zhǔn)則、價(jià)值觀念、國(guó)家心理和民族性格，可以探尋過(guò)去幾十年來(lái)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)取得巨大成就的背后動(dòng)因。
語(yǔ)言是樂(lè)趣。寓教于樂(lè)也許正是“漢語(yǔ)橋”取得成功的重要原因。作為一名外交官，我不僅在你們的國(guó)家工作，還在你們的國(guó)家生活。生活需要有樂(lè)趣。兩周前， 我從當(dāng)?shù)赜⑽膱?bào)紙上得知，烏爾都語(yǔ)作家、詩(shī)人阿卜杜爾•哈米德先生因病辭世。巴國(guó)立語(yǔ)言研究機(jī)構(gòu)主席稱，“哈米德先生的去世意味著巴浪漫詩(shī)歌黃金時(shí)代 的終結(jié)”。包括我在內(nèi)的很多中國(guó)人都是詩(shī)歌愛好者。然而，由于我不懂烏爾都語(yǔ)，雖身在巴基斯坦，卻難以欣賞文學(xué)巨匠的作品，“寶山空回”實(shí)為憾事。我常常 在想，如果我懂烏爾都語(yǔ)，在這兒的常駐生活會(huì)更加有趣和充實(shí)。
最后，我真誠(chéng)的希望越來(lái)越多的巴基斯坦朋友發(fā)現(xiàn)學(xué)習(xí)中文不僅有趣而且有益。中國(guó)使館將一如既往的提供力所能及的支持。
謝謝大家!
英譯漢真題(節(jié)選)：Calls for Recognizing Least Developed Countries as ‘Vast Reservoirs’ of Untapped Potential 來(lái)源地址：第四屆聯(lián)合國(guó)最不發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家會(huì)議秘書長(zhǎng)潘基文開幕式講話(2011年)http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sgsm13554.doc.htm
There are few better places to hold the first major development conference of the decade. Here in Istanbul, cultures converge and continents connect. You provide a bridge between North and South, East and West. We are here to continue building a bridge, a bridge we started to build four decades ago.
In 1971, the international community identified 25 Least Developed Countries: the poorest and weakest members of our global family, those in need of special attention and assistance. Today there are 48 LDCs, home to nearly 900 million people, 12 per cent of the global population, half of whom live on less than $2 a day.
They suffer disproportionately from largely preventable diseases. They are most vulnerable to natural disasters, environmental change and economic shocks. They are the least secure. Eight of the United Nations 15 peacekeeping operations are in least developed countries. In the past decade those nations have produced some 60 per cent of the world’s refugees.
The facts are plain. We live in an unbalanced world, an unfair world. With 12 per cent of the global population, LDCs account for just 1 per cent of world exports, and less than 2 per cent of global direct investment. Recent years have seen a transformation of the global economic landscape.
Since the 2001 Brussels Programme of Action was adopted, many LDCs have benefited from this changing environment. But others have seen little progress or have even slid back. We risk a splintered world economy, a widening gap between haves and have-nots, between those who have hope and those who do not.
This cannot continue.
I have painted rather a bleak picture. But there is another one, a landscape of opportunity. It is this outlook that I want to present to you today. It is time to change our mindset. Instead of seeing LDCs as poor and weak, let us recognize these 48 countries as vast reservoirs of untapped potential. Investing in LDCs is an opportunity for all.
First it is an opportunity to relieve the world’s most vulnerable people of the burdens of poverty, hunger and needless disease. This is a moral obligation. Second, investing in LDCs can provide the stimulus that will help to propel and sustain global economic recovery and stability. This is not charity, it is smart investment. Third, it provides a massive opportunity for South-South cooperation and investment. The world’s rapidly emerging economies need both resources and markets. LDCs can provide both — and are increasingly doing so. Fourth, the LDCs represent a vast and barely touched area for enterprise, for business.
We have here, this week, all the ingredients for success, for a genuine partnership for development. You have worked hard in your preparations. You have reviewed the impact of the Brussels Programme of Action. You know what worked, and what did not, what should have been done and what still needs to be done.
Your negotiations for a new programme of action are on track. The issues are complex. Some are contentious. All are interlinked. I urge you to be ambitious and forward-looking. Deliver an Istanbul Programme of Action that will help the maximum number of LDCs to graduate from this category in the shortest time.
I would like to close, ladies and gentlemen, by highlighting some broad areas where we can reap the maximum benefits for LDCs and the global economy.
First, productive capacity. Most LDCs are rich in resources. All have young and vibrant populations. These men and women need decent jobs, education, training, so they can make the most of their country’s assets — minerals and other commodities, farmland, rich stores of biodiversity and tourism potential.
However, enhanced productive capacity will only be achieved with a dynamic and thriving private sector. One of the most significant aspects of this Conference is the enthusiastic engagement of the business community. Let us ensure that business has the right environment to thrive. It is no coincidence that the three countries that have graduated from the LDCs also score high on governance and democratic principles.
Let me now turn to the issue of aid. Official development assistance (ODA) to LDCs has nearly tripled in the past decade. But it remains below agreed targets. Yes, it is true that we live in times of austerity. But as I have said, assistance to LDCs is not charity, it is sound investment. Many also argue that current aid places too little emphasis on economic infrastructure and productive sectors. Furthermore, many LDCs are still saddled with unsustainable debt burdens. I urge lenders to revisit this issue.
Let me now turn to agriculture, which employs as much as 70 per cent of workers in LDCs. This is perhaps the most important sector for development. We need to invest more in smallholder farmers and the infrastructure they need. This means transferring appropriate technologies, supporting climate change adaptation and protecting ecosystems. We need to invest, too, in basic social protection and safety nets.
Global food prices are at new record levels. LDCs face a real prospect of a new crisis in food and nutrition security. In many LDCs, the poor spend more than half their incomes on food. More than 40 per cent of children in LDCs have had their growth and development stunted by malnutrition. A country that cannot feed its children cannot thrive.
My final point concerns trade. The international community has failed to follow through on global commitments in the Monterrey Consensus and the Doha Declaration on Financing for Development. I call again for a successful conclusion to the Doha Development Round of multilateral trade negotiations. There is little point in helping LDCs to grow food and other commodities, manufacture products and develop services if they cannot trade fairly in the global marketplace.
The United Nations system will continue to prioritize LDC issues throughout its programmes. We will work diligently with all partners to help implement the new Istanbul Programme of Action.
A measure of any society is how well it looks after its least fortunate. The same is true of the international community. Now is not the time to turn our backs, but to increase our support.
The past two decades saw spectacular progress among emerging economies. The LDCs are poised to be the next wave of development achievement. Let me emphasize again, ladies and gentlemen: I am not arguing for charity, but investment. The returns can be profound — not just for the people living in LDCs, but for all people — for the global economy. Success for the LDCs is ultimately success for all.
Let us try our best to make this world harmonious, balanced and better for all.
英譯漢真題：Managing Globalization: The trouble with water 來(lái)源地址：《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(2006年)http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/14/business/worldbusiness/14iht-glob15.3535740.html
This month, the United Nations Development Program made water and sanitation the centerpiece of its flagship publication, the Human Development Report.
Claims of a "water apartheid," where poor people pay more for water than the rich, are bound to attract attention. But what are the economics behind the problem, and how can it be fixed?
In countries that have trouble delivering clean water to their people, a lack of infrastructure is often the culprit. People in areas that are not served by public utilities have to rely on costlier ways of getting water, such as itinerant water trucks and treks to wells.
Paradoxically, as the water sources get costlier, the water itself tends to be more dangerous. Water piped by utilities - to the rich and the poor alike - is usually cleaner than water trucked in or collected from an outdoor tank.
The problem exists not only in rural areas but even in big cities like Manila and Jakarta, said Hakan Bjorkman, program director of the UN agency in Thailand. Further, subsidies made to local water systems often end up benefiting people other than the poor, he added.
The agency proposes a three-step solution. First, make access to 20 liters, or 5 gallons, of clean water a day a human right. Next, make local governments accountable for delivering this service. Last, invest in infrastructure to link people to water mains.
The report says governments, especially in developing countries, should spend at least 1 percent of gross domestic product on water and sanitation. It also recommends that foreign aid be more directed toward these problems.
Clearly, this approach relies heavily on government intervention, something Bjorkman readily acknowledged. But there are some market-based approaches as well.
By offering cut-rate connections to poor people to the water mainline, the private water utility in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, has steadily increased access to clean water, according to the agency's report. A subsidy may not even be necessary, despite the agency's proposals, if a country can harness the economic benefits of providing clean water.
People who receive clean water are much less likely to die from water-borne diseases - a common malady in the developing world - and much more likely to enjoy long, productive, taxpaying lives that can benefit their host countries.
So if a government is trying to raise financing to invest in new infrastructure, it might find receptive ears in private credit markets - as long as it can harness the return. Similarly, private companies may calculate that it is worth bringing clean water to an area if its residents are willing to pay back the investment over many years.
By further opening up water infrastructure to investors, globalization might actually help people to get the clean water they need. But globalization could also make the problem harder to solve by creating a world market for water.
"As competition for water intensifies within countries, the resulting pressures will spill across national borders," the report predicts.
Some water supply basins are shared between as many as 19 countries, and 800 million people get their water from sources that originate outside their countries' borders. Without cooperation or regulation, that competition for water is likely to be won by wealthier bidders.
In the meantime, some local solutions are being found. In Thailand, Bjorkman said, some small communities are taking challenges like water access upon themselves.
"People organize themselves in groups to leverage what little resources they have to help their communities," he said. "That's especially true out in the rural areas. They invest their money in revolving funds and saving schemes, and they invest themselves to improve their villages."
It is not always easy to take these solutions and replicate them in other countries, though. Assembling a broad menu of different approaches can be the first step in finding the right solution for a given region or country.
漢譯英真題：(來(lái)源未知) 即使遇到豐收年景，對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，要用世界百分之七的耕地養(yǎng)活全球五分之一的人口仍是一項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù)。
中國(guó)政府面臨許多挑戰(zhàn)，最嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)之一就是耕地流失。過(guò)去幾年中，平均每年有66.7萬(wàn)公頃耕地被城市擴(kuò)建、工業(yè)發(fā)展以及公路建設(shè)工程占用，另有1萬(wàn)平方公里的耕地被沙漠吞噬。
中國(guó)北方地區(qū)地下水位下降，農(nóng)民不得不改種耐旱、地產(chǎn)作物，甚至撂荒。同時(shí)，農(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施損耗嚴(yán)重，三分之二的灌溉設(shè)施需要整修。
由于農(nóng)民為增加收入而改種經(jīng)濟(jì)作物，農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)方式正在轉(zhuǎn)變。過(guò)去十幾年，全國(guó)水果和蔬菜種植面積平均每年增加130萬(wàn)公頃。因此，水稻、玉米及小麥產(chǎn)量急劇下降。中國(guó)已由糧食凈出口國(guó)變?yōu)榧Z食凈進(jìn)口國(guó)。
中國(guó)政府把農(nóng)業(yè)改革視為頭等大事，投入大量資金用于提高小麥和稻米的收購(gòu)價(jià)以及改進(jìn)農(nóng)田灌溉基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。近年來(lái)，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格穩(wěn)步上升，中國(guó)政府采取此項(xiàng)措施以提高農(nóng)民種糧的積極性。
二級(jí)筆譯《筆譯實(shí)務(wù)》 英譯漢原題：
第一篇：Study Finds Hope in Saving Saltwater Fish
來(lái)源地址：《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(2009年)http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/31/science/earth/31fish.html?scp=1&sq=marine%20ecologists%20and%20fisheries%20management%20scientists&st=cse
Can we have our fish and eat it too? An unusual collaboration of marine ecologists and fisheries management scientists says the answer may be yes.
In a research paper in Friday’s issue of the journal Science, the two groups, long at odds with each other, offer a global assessment of the world’s saltwater fish and their environments.
Their conclusions are at once gloomy — overfishing continues to threaten many species — and upbeat: a combination of steps can turn things around. But because antagonism between ecologists and fisheries management experts has been intense, many familiar with the study say the most important factor is that it was done at all.
They say they hope the study will inspire similar collaborations between scientists whose focus is safely exploiting specific natural resources and those interested mainly in conserving them.
“We need to merge those two communities,” said Steve Murawski, chief fisheries scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “This paper starts to bridge that gap.”
The collaboration began in 2006 when Boris Worm, a marine ecologist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, and other scientists made an alarming prediction: if current trends continue, by 2048 overfishing will have destroyed most commercially important populations of saltwater fish. Ecologists applauded the work. But among fisheries management scientists, reactions ranged from skepticism to fury over what many called an alarmist report.
Among the most prominent critics was Ray Hilborn, a professor of aquatic and fishery sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle. Yet the disagreement did not play out in typical scientific fashion with, as Dr. Hilborn put it, “researchers firing critical papers back and forth.” Instead, he and Dr. Worm found themselves debating the issue on National Public Radio.
“We started talking and found more common ground than we had expected,” Dr. Worm said. Dr. Hilborn recalled thinking that Dr. Worm “actually seemed like a reasonable person.”
The two decided to work together on the issue. They sought and received financing and began organizing workshops at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, an organization sponsored by the National Science Foundation and based at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
At first, Dr. Hilborn said in an interview, “the fisheries management people would go to lunch and the marine ecologists would go to lunch” — separately. But soon they were collecting and sharing data and recruiting more colleagues to analyze it.
第二篇：On fire
來(lái)源地址：《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(2009年)http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/07/on-fire/
As I mentioned last week, I’ve recently returned from Australia. While I was there,I visited a eucalyptus forest that, in February, was the scene of an appalling wildfire. Perhaps naively, I had expected to find that many trees had been killed. They hadn’t. They had blackened bark, but were otherwise looking rather well, many of them wreathed in new young leaves. This prompted me to consider fire and the role it plays as a force of nature.
Fossil charcoals tell us that wildfires have been part of life on Earth for as long as there have been plants on land. That’s more than 400 million years of fire. Fire was here long before arriviste plants like grasses; it pre-dated the first flowers. And without wanting to get mystical about it, fire is, in many respects, a kind of animal, albeit an ethereal one. Like any animal, it consumes oxygen. Like a sheep or a slug, it eats plants.
Sometimes, it merely nibbles a few leaves; sometimes it kills grown trees. Sometimes it is more deadly and destructive than a swarm of locusts.
The shape-shifting nature of fire makes it hard to study, for it is not a single entity. Some fires are infernally hot; others, relatively cool. Some stay at ground level; others climb trees. Moreover, fire is much more likely to appear in some parts of the world than in others. Satellite images of the Earth show that wildfires are rare in, say, northern Europe, and common in parts of central Africa and Australia. Once a fire gets started, many factors contribute to how it will behave. The weather obviously has a huge effect: winds can fan flames, rains can quench them. The lie of the land matters, too: fire runs uphill more readily than it goes down. But another crucial factor is what type of plants the fire has to eat.
It’s common knowledge that plants regularly exposed to fire tend to have features that help them cope with it — such as thick bark, or seeds that only grow after being exposed to intense heat or smoke.
漢譯英真題：王慶：過(guò)度儲(chǔ)蓄的優(yōu)點(diǎn) 來(lái)源地址：新浪財(cái)經(jīng)(2009年)http://finance.sina.com.cn/review/20091124/13107008432.shtml
王慶(摩根士丹利大中華區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家)
最新情況：2007年下半年以來(lái)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展確實(shí)非同尋常。隨著全球金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)從2008年一季度“過(guò)熱”的結(jié)束到四季度“硬著陸” 的開始，經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)為期6個(gè)月的短周期。中國(guó)通過(guò)前所未有的強(qiáng)力政策，終于成為第一個(gè)從“大衰退”中復(fù)蘇的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體。面對(duì)當(dāng)前的強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，越來(lái)越多的人 開始關(guān)注這些“超級(jí)寬松”的貨幣和財(cái)政政策的潛在后果以及相關(guān)的退出戰(zhàn)略。
結(jié)論：我們認(rèn)為，高儲(chǔ)蓄率對(duì)于理解中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的各種現(xiàn)象的演化和內(nèi)在聯(lián)系起著極為重要的作用。高儲(chǔ)蓄率主要是中國(guó)人口政策下的人口結(jié)構(gòu)、經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)背景 下家庭消費(fèi)習(xí)慣改變緩慢等長(zhǎng)期因素作用的結(jié)果。在“過(guò)度儲(chǔ)蓄優(yōu)點(diǎn)”的影響下，中國(guó)已經(jīng)并可能繼續(xù)保持高增長(zhǎng)、低通脹，而且只要繼續(xù)保持高儲(chǔ)蓄率，就足以抵 御來(lái)自外部的沖擊。在這一背景下，揮之不去的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲壓力可能成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的一個(gè)常態(tài)現(xiàn)象，而非特例，從而成為政策制定者面臨的、也是經(jīng)常化的宏 觀經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)，而為了限度地防范資產(chǎn)價(jià)格破裂所造成的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，“降低杠桿率”很可能成為經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的一個(gè)重點(diǎn)。
因此，中國(guó)將有必要實(shí)施嚴(yán)格的房貸抵押制度，限制股票市場(chǎng)的保證金交易，嚴(yán)格執(zhí)行銀行資本充足率要求，非對(duì)稱開放外部資本賬戶管制，引導(dǎo)資本流出，控制資本流入，防止對(duì)人民幣匯率的單邊下注導(dǎo)致熱錢的涌入。
近期政策影響：我們認(rèn)為，當(dāng)前的政策態(tài)勢(shì)在年底之前當(dāng)基本保持不變，并在2010年初隨著銀行新增貸款增長(zhǎng)率的正?；?從2009年的9.5萬(wàn)-10萬(wàn) 億元降至2010年的7萬(wàn)-8萬(wàn)億元)，而轉(zhuǎn)向中性。在明年年中之前，不大可能出現(xiàn)上調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率及基準(zhǔn)利率以及人民幣升值等緊縮政策。
中國(guó)的高儲(chǔ)蓄率實(shí)際上是一個(gè)資產(chǎn)配置的問(wèn)題
中國(guó)的國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄約占GDP的55%，其中19%為家庭儲(chǔ)蓄，11%為政府儲(chǔ)蓄， 25%為企業(yè)儲(chǔ)蓄。國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄只能用于三種用途：境內(nèi)有形資產(chǎn)、境外有形資產(chǎn)和境外金融資產(chǎn)。境內(nèi)有形資產(chǎn)主要通過(guò)國(guó)內(nèi)固定資產(chǎn)投資的方式形成;境外有形資 產(chǎn)的形成途徑為中國(guó)居民的境外直接投資，或以并購(gòu)方式獲得現(xiàn)有境外有形資產(chǎn)的所有權(quán);境外金融資產(chǎn)的形成途徑為中央銀行的官方外匯儲(chǔ)備積累，或跨境自由流 動(dòng)機(jī)制(即無(wú)資本賬戶控制)下的私人投資。
一個(gè)反復(fù)出現(xiàn)的宏觀主題：高投資、高增長(zhǎng)、低通脹
高儲(chǔ)蓄為促進(jìn)國(guó)內(nèi)投資的快速增長(zhǎng)提供了充足的資金，而高投資反過(guò)來(lái)又促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)。在其他條件不變的情況下，國(guó)內(nèi)高儲(chǔ)蓄支撐的高增長(zhǎng)通常會(huì)導(dǎo)致 緊縮壓力，而非通脹壓力。具體而言，實(shí)施初期的投資項(xiàng)目是總體需求的一部分(即需求曲線向右平移)，因而通常會(huì)增長(zhǎng)價(jià)格上漲的壓力，但是投資最終將導(dǎo)致產(chǎn) 能的擴(kuò)大，從而大幅增長(zhǎng)供給(即供給曲線向右平移)。
在一個(gè)高儲(chǔ)蓄的環(huán)境中，任何通脹壓力都不可能持續(xù)很久。因?yàn)楦邇?chǔ)蓄率造成充裕的資金供應(yīng)，從而使通過(guò)投資產(chǎn)生的供給面反應(yīng)變得極為迅速。
境外金融資產(chǎn)的主要表現(xiàn)形式是外匯儲(chǔ)備
中國(guó)的境外金融資產(chǎn)的主要表現(xiàn)形式為中央銀行的外匯儲(chǔ)備，約占中國(guó)境外總資產(chǎn)的70%。這主要是因?yàn)橘Y本賬戶的管制導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)居民不能自由進(jìn)行境外投資。 不過(guò)，以官方外匯儲(chǔ)備形式體現(xiàn)的境外金融資產(chǎn)并不真正反映國(guó)內(nèi)私人儲(chǔ)蓄在境外使用的情況，因?yàn)閲?guó)內(nèi)的流動(dòng)性(即如果沒(méi)有資本賬戶管制，則可能已由私營(yíng)部門 投資于境外有形資產(chǎn)或金融資產(chǎn)所對(duì)應(yīng)的那部分儲(chǔ)蓄)正是由央行的外匯儲(chǔ)備積累而創(chuàng)造的，但卻被限制在中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)。
揮之不去的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲壓力
一方面，央行外匯儲(chǔ)備的積累創(chuàng)造了大量的國(guó)內(nèi)流動(dòng)性，同時(shí)金融投資的需求又很強(qiáng)勁。另一方面，國(guó)內(nèi)資本市場(chǎng)不夠發(fā)達(dá)，證券化投資產(chǎn)品不足。在中國(guó)，85% 的金融中介是通過(guò)銀行系統(tǒng)完成的，證券市場(chǎng)只占10%，而債券市場(chǎng)基本就不存在。
資本市場(chǎng)供需不平衡的趨勢(shì)是中國(guó)股市估值偏高的一個(gè)重要原因。作為一個(gè)貼現(xiàn)機(jī)制，目前規(guī)模尚小的中國(guó)股市背負(fù)了為整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的“光明未來(lái)”進(jìn)行定價(jià)的“沉重包袱”，因此很容易在短期內(nèi)滋生泡沫，尤其是在投資者的情緒變得亢奮之時(shí)。
中國(guó)的高儲(chǔ)蓄是一個(gè)人口代際現(xiàn)象
高儲(chǔ)蓄率主要是中國(guó)的計(jì)劃生育政策下的人口結(jié)構(gòu)、經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)背景下家庭消費(fèi)習(xí)慣改變緩慢等長(zhǎng)期因素作用的結(jié)果。
“計(jì)劃生育政策”以人為的形式在較短時(shí)間內(nèi)大幅降低了中國(guó)的人口撫養(yǎng)比。在其他國(guó)家，老齡化是一個(gè)自然過(guò)程。盡管家庭收入隨著整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)而迅速增加，但個(gè)人消費(fèi)習(xí)慣可能需要好幾年甚至好幾十年才能改變。這是為什么“文化因素”常常被認(rèn)為是高儲(chǔ)蓄率的原因。
國(guó)有企業(yè)缺乏社會(huì)保障和公司治理等其他結(jié)構(gòu)性因素，雖然對(duì)中國(guó)的高儲(chǔ)蓄率也有所貢獻(xiàn)，但它們要么影響甚微，要么只是上述長(zhǎng)期影響因素的間接反應(yīng)。例如，私人企業(yè)占中國(guó)工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)的70%以上，而私人企業(yè)的儲(chǔ)蓄行為實(shí)際上是個(gè)人儲(chǔ)蓄行為的一種延伸。
總體情況：資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲壓力成為常態(tài)
我們認(rèn)為，在“過(guò)度儲(chǔ)蓄優(yōu)點(diǎn)”的影響下，中國(guó)已經(jīng)并可能繼續(xù)保持高增長(zhǎng)、低通脹，而且只要繼續(xù)保持高儲(chǔ)蓄率，就足以抵御來(lái)自外部的沖擊。在這一背景下， 揮之不去的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲壓力可能成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的一個(gè)常態(tài)，而非特例，從而成為未來(lái)幾年政策制定者面臨的、也是經(jīng)?；暮暧^經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)。
首要政策重點(diǎn)：降低杠桿率同時(shí)著眼于限度地防范系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
在中國(guó)這樣“過(guò)度儲(chǔ)蓄”的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，管理資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的持續(xù)上漲壓力，可能在未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)成為比控制傳統(tǒng)的CPI上漲或促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)更重要的政策目標(biāo)。不過(guò)，由 于傳統(tǒng)的貨幣政策工具并非最合適的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲管理工具，所以當(dāng)前的緊迫任務(wù)是限度地防范資產(chǎn)價(jià)格破裂帶來(lái)的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在低杠桿率下，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格破裂 造成的損失要小得多。
“降低杠桿率”很可能成為經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的一個(gè)重要政策目標(biāo)。因此，將有必要實(shí)施嚴(yán)格的房貸抵押制度，嚴(yán)格限制股票市場(chǎng)的保證金交易，嚴(yán)格執(zhí)行銀行資本充足率要求。
此外，防止對(duì)人民幣匯率的單邊下注也十分重要，因?yàn)閺?qiáng)烈的人民幣升值預(yù)期將導(dǎo)致熱錢的涌入，這是境外投機(jī)者使用的另一種杠桿形式。同樣，有必要非對(duì)稱開放資本賬戶控制，引導(dǎo)資本流出，控制資本流入。
通過(guò)合格國(guó)內(nèi)機(jī)構(gòu)投資者(QDII)以及合格國(guó)內(nèi)散戶投資者(QDRI)的投資活動(dòng)，開放對(duì)外資本賬戶，當(dāng)有助于滿足國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄者直接擁有境外金融資產(chǎn)的 需求，從而放緩中央銀行外匯儲(chǔ)備積累及國(guó)內(nèi)流動(dòng)性創(chuàng)造的速度。不過(guò)，對(duì)資本流入(特別是短期投資)的控制應(yīng)當(dāng)繼續(xù)維持或逐步取消。否則資本的流入將會(huì)對(duì)國(guó) 內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄導(dǎo)致的嚴(yán)重資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲壓力起到推波助瀾的作用，并使政策博弈進(jìn)一步復(fù)雜化。
結(jié)構(gòu)性改革日程：放松價(jià)格管制，發(fā)展資本市場(chǎng)
在宏觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)得到控制之后，應(yīng)重點(diǎn)采取有助于提升投資質(zhì)量的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革措施。盡管“過(guò)度儲(chǔ)蓄”有助于產(chǎn)生高增長(zhǎng)、低通脹等重要數(shù)據(jù)，但“過(guò)度 儲(chǔ)蓄”所創(chuàng)造的資本應(yīng)當(dāng)?shù)玫接行У呐渲?。因此，放松?duì)利率、能源價(jià)格及其他重要自然資源商品價(jià)格的管制已經(jīng)不容拖延了。
同時(shí)，政府應(yīng)進(jìn)一步加快國(guó)內(nèi)資本市場(chǎng)(包括股市和固定收益證券市場(chǎng))，增加證券化產(chǎn)品的供應(yīng)以滿足不斷增長(zhǎng)的投資機(jī)會(huì)需求，緩解資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲的壓力。
促進(jìn)消費(fèi)措施效果如何?
自從危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來(lái)，通過(guò)降低儲(chǔ)蓄率促進(jìn)國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)已經(jīng)成為一個(gè)政策重點(diǎn)。不過(guò)，如果中國(guó)的高儲(chǔ)蓄率是一個(gè)人口代際現(xiàn)象，在我們看來(lái)，實(shí)質(zhì)降低國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄率的 政策空間將十分有限。尤其是加強(qiáng)社會(huì)保障系統(tǒng)以及國(guó)有企業(yè)的公司治理可能有助于降低家庭儲(chǔ)蓄率，但不會(huì)有效降低國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄率。
任何旨在促進(jìn)消費(fèi)的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革可能都會(huì)比較溫和，效果也將十分有限。如果采取激進(jìn)的政策措施強(qiáng)行降低儲(chǔ)蓄率，而無(wú)視其人口代際本質(zhì)，則將適得其反，使得福利體系過(guò)于慷慨，超過(guò)中國(guó)這樣人均收入仍然很低的國(guó)家的承受能力。
事實(shí)上，我們認(rèn)為，就這一問(wèn)題討論的任何相關(guān)政策建議都應(yīng)被視為針對(duì)收入差距而采取的措施，而非著眼于增加整體消費(fèi)水平。
三級(jí)口譯《口譯實(shí)務(wù)》
漢譯英真題：駐巴基斯坦大使劉健在第十屆“漢語(yǔ)橋”世界大學(xué)生中文比賽巴基斯坦賽區(qū)決賽上的講話
來(lái)源地址：外交部(2011年)www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/gxh/tyb/zwbd/t821399.htm
女士們，先生們!
早上好!
我非常高興出席今天在這里舉行的第十屆“漢語(yǔ)橋”世界大學(xué)生中文比賽巴基斯坦賽區(qū)決賽。我想對(duì)巴國(guó)立現(xiàn)代語(yǔ)言大學(xué)和伊斯蘭堡孔子學(xué)院為此次比賽做出的各項(xiàng)細(xì)心周到的安排表示感謝。我還想向參賽選手們表示祝賀。你們非凡的語(yǔ)言天賦、流利的漢語(yǔ)水平和對(duì)中國(guó)文化的理解令我印象深刻。我相信，你們一定能在決賽 中脫穎而出，創(chuàng)造佳績(jī)。誕生于2002年的“漢語(yǔ)橋”世界大學(xué)生中文比賽至今已經(jīng)吸引了來(lái)自全世界70多個(gè)國(guó)家的上萬(wàn)名學(xué)生參賽，極大推動(dòng)了中文普及并掀起了一股學(xué)習(xí)漢語(yǔ)的熱潮。我們應(yīng)當(dāng)為它喝彩。
在今天這個(gè)場(chǎng)合，我想就語(yǔ)言談一些個(gè)人看法。
語(yǔ)言是技能。掌握一門語(yǔ)言無(wú)疑是多了一項(xiàng)交流溝通的技能，對(duì)個(gè)人事業(yè)發(fā)展有好處。由于中巴特殊的“全天候”戰(zhàn)略伙伴關(guān)系，巴基斯坦學(xué)生學(xué)習(xí)漢語(yǔ)擁有更為 有利的條件。中國(guó)總理溫家寶去年底的成功訪問(wèn)極大豐富了兩國(guó)人文交流的內(nèi)涵。在《聯(lián)合聲明》中，雙方同意全面拓展人文交流，重點(diǎn)加強(qiáng)中文和烏爾都語(yǔ)教育。 中方今年將邀請(qǐng)100名巴基斯坦高中生赴華參加“漢語(yǔ)橋”夏令營(yíng)，并繼續(xù)向伊斯蘭堡孔子學(xué)院提供獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金。中方還將自今年起，在三年之內(nèi)向巴方提供500名 政府獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金名額?？梢哉f(shuō)，你們學(xué)習(xí)漢語(yǔ)正逢其時(shí)。
語(yǔ)言是橋梁。第13任中國(guó)駐巴大使張春賢能夠說(shuō)一口流利的烏爾都語(yǔ)。我知道我的很多同事對(duì)學(xué)習(xí)烏爾都語(yǔ)懷有濃厚的興趣。我還知道，很多巴基斯坦朋友會(huì)說(shuō) 漢語(yǔ)，其中就有巴國(guó)立現(xiàn)代語(yǔ)言大學(xué)和伊斯蘭堡孔子學(xué)院的校友。我們?yōu)樗麄凃湴?。今天，我還想特別提及伊斯蘭堡孔子學(xué)院的學(xué)生。去年溫總理來(lái)巴，我們?cè)诎椭?友誼中心舉辦了這樣一場(chǎng)活動(dòng)，就是兩國(guó)總理與為中巴友誼做出突出貢獻(xiàn)人士座談。座談會(huì)臨近結(jié)束的時(shí)候，伊斯蘭堡孔子學(xué)院學(xué)員朱雷和14歲女孩拉比亞分別用 中文和英文深情并茂地朗誦了一首題為“巴中友誼”的詩(shī)。在場(chǎng)觀眾深受感染，有人不禁落淚。這就是語(yǔ)言直通心靈的力量。
語(yǔ)言是窗戶。它不僅僅是一套符號(hào)系統(tǒng)，更是傳達(dá)文化內(nèi)涵的重要載體。有人曾說(shuō)，“語(yǔ)言是思想的服裝”，“文字是思想的符號(hào)”。學(xué)習(xí)漢語(yǔ)，就像為中華文化 開了一扇窗。透過(guò)它，你可以看到中國(guó)人的生活方式、行為準(zhǔn)則、價(jià)值觀念、國(guó)家心理和民族性格，可以探尋過(guò)去幾十年來(lái)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)取得巨大成就的背后動(dòng)因。
語(yǔ)言是樂(lè)趣。寓教于樂(lè)也許正是“漢語(yǔ)橋”取得成功的重要原因。作為一名外交官，我不僅在你們的國(guó)家工作，還在你們的國(guó)家生活。生活需要有樂(lè)趣。兩周前， 我從當(dāng)?shù)赜⑽膱?bào)紙上得知，烏爾都語(yǔ)作家、詩(shī)人阿卜杜爾•哈米德先生因病辭世。巴國(guó)立語(yǔ)言研究機(jī)構(gòu)主席稱，“哈米德先生的去世意味著巴浪漫詩(shī)歌黃金時(shí)代 的終結(jié)”。包括我在內(nèi)的很多中國(guó)人都是詩(shī)歌愛好者。然而，由于我不懂烏爾都語(yǔ)，雖身在巴基斯坦，卻難以欣賞文學(xué)巨匠的作品，“寶山空回”實(shí)為憾事。我常常 在想，如果我懂烏爾都語(yǔ)，在這兒的常駐生活會(huì)更加有趣和充實(shí)。
最后，我真誠(chéng)的希望越來(lái)越多的巴基斯坦朋友發(fā)現(xiàn)學(xué)習(xí)中文不僅有趣而且有益。中國(guó)使館將一如既往的提供力所能及的支持。
謝謝大家!
英譯漢真題(節(jié)選)：Calls for Recognizing Least Developed Countries as ‘Vast Reservoirs’ of Untapped Potential 來(lái)源地址：第四屆聯(lián)合國(guó)最不發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家會(huì)議秘書長(zhǎng)潘基文開幕式講話(2011年)http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sgsm13554.doc.htm
There are few better places to hold the first major development conference of the decade. Here in Istanbul, cultures converge and continents connect. You provide a bridge between North and South, East and West. We are here to continue building a bridge, a bridge we started to build four decades ago.
In 1971, the international community identified 25 Least Developed Countries: the poorest and weakest members of our global family, those in need of special attention and assistance. Today there are 48 LDCs, home to nearly 900 million people, 12 per cent of the global population, half of whom live on less than $2 a day.
They suffer disproportionately from largely preventable diseases. They are most vulnerable to natural disasters, environmental change and economic shocks. They are the least secure. Eight of the United Nations 15 peacekeeping operations are in least developed countries. In the past decade those nations have produced some 60 per cent of the world’s refugees.
The facts are plain. We live in an unbalanced world, an unfair world. With 12 per cent of the global population, LDCs account for just 1 per cent of world exports, and less than 2 per cent of global direct investment. Recent years have seen a transformation of the global economic landscape.
Since the 2001 Brussels Programme of Action was adopted, many LDCs have benefited from this changing environment. But others have seen little progress or have even slid back. We risk a splintered world economy, a widening gap between haves and have-nots, between those who have hope and those who do not.
This cannot continue.
I have painted rather a bleak picture. But there is another one, a landscape of opportunity. It is this outlook that I want to present to you today. It is time to change our mindset. Instead of seeing LDCs as poor and weak, let us recognize these 48 countries as vast reservoirs of untapped potential. Investing in LDCs is an opportunity for all.
First it is an opportunity to relieve the world’s most vulnerable people of the burdens of poverty, hunger and needless disease. This is a moral obligation. Second, investing in LDCs can provide the stimulus that will help to propel and sustain global economic recovery and stability. This is not charity, it is smart investment. Third, it provides a massive opportunity for South-South cooperation and investment. The world’s rapidly emerging economies need both resources and markets. LDCs can provide both — and are increasingly doing so. Fourth, the LDCs represent a vast and barely touched area for enterprise, for business.
We have here, this week, all the ingredients for success, for a genuine partnership for development. You have worked hard in your preparations. You have reviewed the impact of the Brussels Programme of Action. You know what worked, and what did not, what should have been done and what still needs to be done.
Your negotiations for a new programme of action are on track. The issues are complex. Some are contentious. All are interlinked. I urge you to be ambitious and forward-looking. Deliver an Istanbul Programme of Action that will help the maximum number of LDCs to graduate from this category in the shortest time.
I would like to close, ladies and gentlemen, by highlighting some broad areas where we can reap the maximum benefits for LDCs and the global economy.
First, productive capacity. Most LDCs are rich in resources. All have young and vibrant populations. These men and women need decent jobs, education, training, so they can make the most of their country’s assets — minerals and other commodities, farmland, rich stores of biodiversity and tourism potential.
However, enhanced productive capacity will only be achieved with a dynamic and thriving private sector. One of the most significant aspects of this Conference is the enthusiastic engagement of the business community. Let us ensure that business has the right environment to thrive. It is no coincidence that the three countries that have graduated from the LDCs also score high on governance and democratic principles.
Let me now turn to the issue of aid. Official development assistance (ODA) to LDCs has nearly tripled in the past decade. But it remains below agreed targets. Yes, it is true that we live in times of austerity. But as I have said, assistance to LDCs is not charity, it is sound investment. Many also argue that current aid places too little emphasis on economic infrastructure and productive sectors. Furthermore, many LDCs are still saddled with unsustainable debt burdens. I urge lenders to revisit this issue.
Let me now turn to agriculture, which employs as much as 70 per cent of workers in LDCs. This is perhaps the most important sector for development. We need to invest more in smallholder farmers and the infrastructure they need. This means transferring appropriate technologies, supporting climate change adaptation and protecting ecosystems. We need to invest, too, in basic social protection and safety nets.
Global food prices are at new record levels. LDCs face a real prospect of a new crisis in food and nutrition security. In many LDCs, the poor spend more than half their incomes on food. More than 40 per cent of children in LDCs have had their growth and development stunted by malnutrition. A country that cannot feed its children cannot thrive.
My final point concerns trade. The international community has failed to follow through on global commitments in the Monterrey Consensus and the Doha Declaration on Financing for Development. I call again for a successful conclusion to the Doha Development Round of multilateral trade negotiations. There is little point in helping LDCs to grow food and other commodities, manufacture products and develop services if they cannot trade fairly in the global marketplace.
The United Nations system will continue to prioritize LDC issues throughout its programmes. We will work diligently with all partners to help implement the new Istanbul Programme of Action.
A measure of any society is how well it looks after its least fortunate. The same is true of the international community. Now is not the time to turn our backs, but to increase our support.
The past two decades saw spectacular progress among emerging economies. The LDCs are poised to be the next wave of development achievement. Let me emphasize again, ladies and gentlemen: I am not arguing for charity, but investment. The returns can be profound — not just for the people living in LDCs, but for all people — for the global economy. Success for the LDCs is ultimately success for all.
Let us try our best to make this world harmonious, balanced and better for all.
英譯漢真題：Managing Globalization: The trouble with water 來(lái)源地址：《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(2006年)http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/14/business/worldbusiness/14iht-glob15.3535740.html
This month, the United Nations Development Program made water and sanitation the centerpiece of its flagship publication, the Human Development Report.
Claims of a "water apartheid," where poor people pay more for water than the rich, are bound to attract attention. But what are the economics behind the problem, and how can it be fixed?
In countries that have trouble delivering clean water to their people, a lack of infrastructure is often the culprit. People in areas that are not served by public utilities have to rely on costlier ways of getting water, such as itinerant water trucks and treks to wells.
Paradoxically, as the water sources get costlier, the water itself tends to be more dangerous. Water piped by utilities - to the rich and the poor alike - is usually cleaner than water trucked in or collected from an outdoor tank.
The problem exists not only in rural areas but even in big cities like Manila and Jakarta, said Hakan Bjorkman, program director of the UN agency in Thailand. Further, subsidies made to local water systems often end up benefiting people other than the poor, he added.
The agency proposes a three-step solution. First, make access to 20 liters, or 5 gallons, of clean water a day a human right. Next, make local governments accountable for delivering this service. Last, invest in infrastructure to link people to water mains.
The report says governments, especially in developing countries, should spend at least 1 percent of gross domestic product on water and sanitation. It also recommends that foreign aid be more directed toward these problems.
Clearly, this approach relies heavily on government intervention, something Bjorkman readily acknowledged. But there are some market-based approaches as well.
By offering cut-rate connections to poor people to the water mainline, the private water utility in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, has steadily increased access to clean water, according to the agency's report. A subsidy may not even be necessary, despite the agency's proposals, if a country can harness the economic benefits of providing clean water.
People who receive clean water are much less likely to die from water-borne diseases - a common malady in the developing world - and much more likely to enjoy long, productive, taxpaying lives that can benefit their host countries.
So if a government is trying to raise financing to invest in new infrastructure, it might find receptive ears in private credit markets - as long as it can harness the return. Similarly, private companies may calculate that it is worth bringing clean water to an area if its residents are willing to pay back the investment over many years.
By further opening up water infrastructure to investors, globalization might actually help people to get the clean water they need. But globalization could also make the problem harder to solve by creating a world market for water.
"As competition for water intensifies within countries, the resulting pressures will spill across national borders," the report predicts.
Some water supply basins are shared between as many as 19 countries, and 800 million people get their water from sources that originate outside their countries' borders. Without cooperation or regulation, that competition for water is likely to be won by wealthier bidders.
In the meantime, some local solutions are being found. In Thailand, Bjorkman said, some small communities are taking challenges like water access upon themselves.
"People organize themselves in groups to leverage what little resources they have to help their communities," he said. "That's especially true out in the rural areas. They invest their money in revolving funds and saving schemes, and they invest themselves to improve their villages."
It is not always easy to take these solutions and replicate them in other countries, though. Assembling a broad menu of different approaches can be the first step in finding the right solution for a given region or country.
漢譯英真題：(來(lái)源未知) 即使遇到豐收年景，對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，要用世界百分之七的耕地養(yǎng)活全球五分之一的人口仍是一項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù)。
中國(guó)政府面臨許多挑戰(zhàn)，最嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)之一就是耕地流失。過(guò)去幾年中，平均每年有66.7萬(wàn)公頃耕地被城市擴(kuò)建、工業(yè)發(fā)展以及公路建設(shè)工程占用，另有1萬(wàn)平方公里的耕地被沙漠吞噬。
中國(guó)北方地區(qū)地下水位下降，農(nóng)民不得不改種耐旱、地產(chǎn)作物，甚至撂荒。同時(shí)，農(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施損耗嚴(yán)重，三分之二的灌溉設(shè)施需要整修。
由于農(nóng)民為增加收入而改種經(jīng)濟(jì)作物，農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)方式正在轉(zhuǎn)變。過(guò)去十幾年，全國(guó)水果和蔬菜種植面積平均每年增加130萬(wàn)公頃。因此，水稻、玉米及小麥產(chǎn)量急劇下降。中國(guó)已由糧食凈出口國(guó)變?yōu)榧Z食凈進(jìn)口國(guó)。
中國(guó)政府把農(nóng)業(yè)改革視為頭等大事，投入大量資金用于提高小麥和稻米的收購(gòu)價(jià)以及改進(jìn)農(nóng)田灌溉基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。近年來(lái)，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格穩(wěn)步上升，中國(guó)政府采取此項(xiàng)措施以提高農(nóng)民種糧的積極性。
二級(jí)筆譯《筆譯實(shí)務(wù)》 英譯漢原題：
第一篇：Study Finds Hope in Saving Saltwater Fish
來(lái)源地址：《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(2009年)http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/31/science/earth/31fish.html?scp=1&sq=marine%20ecologists%20and%20fisheries%20management%20scientists&st=cse
Can we have our fish and eat it too? An unusual collaboration of marine ecologists and fisheries management scientists says the answer may be yes.
In a research paper in Friday’s issue of the journal Science, the two groups, long at odds with each other, offer a global assessment of the world’s saltwater fish and their environments.
Their conclusions are at once gloomy — overfishing continues to threaten many species — and upbeat: a combination of steps can turn things around. But because antagonism between ecologists and fisheries management experts has been intense, many familiar with the study say the most important factor is that it was done at all.
They say they hope the study will inspire similar collaborations between scientists whose focus is safely exploiting specific natural resources and those interested mainly in conserving them.
“We need to merge those two communities,” said Steve Murawski, chief fisheries scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “This paper starts to bridge that gap.”
The collaboration began in 2006 when Boris Worm, a marine ecologist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, and other scientists made an alarming prediction: if current trends continue, by 2048 overfishing will have destroyed most commercially important populations of saltwater fish. Ecologists applauded the work. But among fisheries management scientists, reactions ranged from skepticism to fury over what many called an alarmist report.
Among the most prominent critics was Ray Hilborn, a professor of aquatic and fishery sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle. Yet the disagreement did not play out in typical scientific fashion with, as Dr. Hilborn put it, “researchers firing critical papers back and forth.” Instead, he and Dr. Worm found themselves debating the issue on National Public Radio.
“We started talking and found more common ground than we had expected,” Dr. Worm said. Dr. Hilborn recalled thinking that Dr. Worm “actually seemed like a reasonable person.”
The two decided to work together on the issue. They sought and received financing and began organizing workshops at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, an organization sponsored by the National Science Foundation and based at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
At first, Dr. Hilborn said in an interview, “the fisheries management people would go to lunch and the marine ecologists would go to lunch” — separately. But soon they were collecting and sharing data and recruiting more colleagues to analyze it.
第二篇：On fire
來(lái)源地址：《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(2009年)http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/07/on-fire/
As I mentioned last week, I’ve recently returned from Australia. While I was there,I visited a eucalyptus forest that, in February, was the scene of an appalling wildfire. Perhaps naively, I had expected to find that many trees had been killed. They hadn’t. They had blackened bark, but were otherwise looking rather well, many of them wreathed in new young leaves. This prompted me to consider fire and the role it plays as a force of nature.
Fossil charcoals tell us that wildfires have been part of life on Earth for as long as there have been plants on land. That’s more than 400 million years of fire. Fire was here long before arriviste plants like grasses; it pre-dated the first flowers. And without wanting to get mystical about it, fire is, in many respects, a kind of animal, albeit an ethereal one. Like any animal, it consumes oxygen. Like a sheep or a slug, it eats plants.
Sometimes, it merely nibbles a few leaves; sometimes it kills grown trees. Sometimes it is more deadly and destructive than a swarm of locusts.
The shape-shifting nature of fire makes it hard to study, for it is not a single entity. Some fires are infernally hot; others, relatively cool. Some stay at ground level; others climb trees. Moreover, fire is much more likely to appear in some parts of the world than in others. Satellite images of the Earth show that wildfires are rare in, say, northern Europe, and common in parts of central Africa and Australia. Once a fire gets started, many factors contribute to how it will behave. The weather obviously has a huge effect: winds can fan flames, rains can quench them. The lie of the land matters, too: fire runs uphill more readily than it goes down. But another crucial factor is what type of plants the fire has to eat.
It’s common knowledge that plants regularly exposed to fire tend to have features that help them cope with it — such as thick bark, or seeds that only grow after being exposed to intense heat or smoke.
漢譯英真題：王慶：過(guò)度儲(chǔ)蓄的優(yōu)點(diǎn) 來(lái)源地址：新浪財(cái)經(jīng)(2009年)http://finance.sina.com.cn/review/20091124/13107008432.shtml
王慶(摩根士丹利大中華區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家)
最新情況：2007年下半年以來(lái)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展確實(shí)非同尋常。隨著全球金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)從2008年一季度“過(guò)熱”的結(jié)束到四季度“硬著陸” 的開始，經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)為期6個(gè)月的短周期。中國(guó)通過(guò)前所未有的強(qiáng)力政策，終于成為第一個(gè)從“大衰退”中復(fù)蘇的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體。面對(duì)當(dāng)前的強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，越來(lái)越多的人 開始關(guān)注這些“超級(jí)寬松”的貨幣和財(cái)政政策的潛在后果以及相關(guān)的退出戰(zhàn)略。
結(jié)論：我們認(rèn)為，高儲(chǔ)蓄率對(duì)于理解中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的各種現(xiàn)象的演化和內(nèi)在聯(lián)系起著極為重要的作用。高儲(chǔ)蓄率主要是中國(guó)人口政策下的人口結(jié)構(gòu)、經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)背景 下家庭消費(fèi)習(xí)慣改變緩慢等長(zhǎng)期因素作用的結(jié)果。在“過(guò)度儲(chǔ)蓄優(yōu)點(diǎn)”的影響下，中國(guó)已經(jīng)并可能繼續(xù)保持高增長(zhǎng)、低通脹，而且只要繼續(xù)保持高儲(chǔ)蓄率，就足以抵 御來(lái)自外部的沖擊。在這一背景下，揮之不去的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲壓力可能成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的一個(gè)常態(tài)現(xiàn)象，而非特例，從而成為政策制定者面臨的、也是經(jīng)常化的宏 觀經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)，而為了限度地防范資產(chǎn)價(jià)格破裂所造成的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，“降低杠桿率”很可能成為經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的一個(gè)重點(diǎn)。
因此，中國(guó)將有必要實(shí)施嚴(yán)格的房貸抵押制度，限制股票市場(chǎng)的保證金交易，嚴(yán)格執(zhí)行銀行資本充足率要求，非對(duì)稱開放外部資本賬戶管制，引導(dǎo)資本流出，控制資本流入，防止對(duì)人民幣匯率的單邊下注導(dǎo)致熱錢的涌入。
近期政策影響：我們認(rèn)為，當(dāng)前的政策態(tài)勢(shì)在年底之前當(dāng)基本保持不變，并在2010年初隨著銀行新增貸款增長(zhǎng)率的正?；?從2009年的9.5萬(wàn)-10萬(wàn) 億元降至2010年的7萬(wàn)-8萬(wàn)億元)，而轉(zhuǎn)向中性。在明年年中之前，不大可能出現(xiàn)上調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率及基準(zhǔn)利率以及人民幣升值等緊縮政策。
中國(guó)的高儲(chǔ)蓄率實(shí)際上是一個(gè)資產(chǎn)配置的問(wèn)題
中國(guó)的國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄約占GDP的55%，其中19%為家庭儲(chǔ)蓄，11%為政府儲(chǔ)蓄， 25%為企業(yè)儲(chǔ)蓄。國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄只能用于三種用途：境內(nèi)有形資產(chǎn)、境外有形資產(chǎn)和境外金融資產(chǎn)。境內(nèi)有形資產(chǎn)主要通過(guò)國(guó)內(nèi)固定資產(chǎn)投資的方式形成;境外有形資 產(chǎn)的形成途徑為中國(guó)居民的境外直接投資，或以并購(gòu)方式獲得現(xiàn)有境外有形資產(chǎn)的所有權(quán);境外金融資產(chǎn)的形成途徑為中央銀行的官方外匯儲(chǔ)備積累，或跨境自由流 動(dòng)機(jī)制(即無(wú)資本賬戶控制)下的私人投資。
一個(gè)反復(fù)出現(xiàn)的宏觀主題：高投資、高增長(zhǎng)、低通脹
高儲(chǔ)蓄為促進(jìn)國(guó)內(nèi)投資的快速增長(zhǎng)提供了充足的資金，而高投資反過(guò)來(lái)又促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)。在其他條件不變的情況下，國(guó)內(nèi)高儲(chǔ)蓄支撐的高增長(zhǎng)通常會(huì)導(dǎo)致 緊縮壓力，而非通脹壓力。具體而言，實(shí)施初期的投資項(xiàng)目是總體需求的一部分(即需求曲線向右平移)，因而通常會(huì)增長(zhǎng)價(jià)格上漲的壓力，但是投資最終將導(dǎo)致產(chǎn) 能的擴(kuò)大，從而大幅增長(zhǎng)供給(即供給曲線向右平移)。
在一個(gè)高儲(chǔ)蓄的環(huán)境中，任何通脹壓力都不可能持續(xù)很久。因?yàn)楦邇?chǔ)蓄率造成充裕的資金供應(yīng)，從而使通過(guò)投資產(chǎn)生的供給面反應(yīng)變得極為迅速。
境外金融資產(chǎn)的主要表現(xiàn)形式是外匯儲(chǔ)備
中國(guó)的境外金融資產(chǎn)的主要表現(xiàn)形式為中央銀行的外匯儲(chǔ)備，約占中國(guó)境外總資產(chǎn)的70%。這主要是因?yàn)橘Y本賬戶的管制導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)居民不能自由進(jìn)行境外投資。 不過(guò)，以官方外匯儲(chǔ)備形式體現(xiàn)的境外金融資產(chǎn)并不真正反映國(guó)內(nèi)私人儲(chǔ)蓄在境外使用的情況，因?yàn)閲?guó)內(nèi)的流動(dòng)性(即如果沒(méi)有資本賬戶管制，則可能已由私營(yíng)部門 投資于境外有形資產(chǎn)或金融資產(chǎn)所對(duì)應(yīng)的那部分儲(chǔ)蓄)正是由央行的外匯儲(chǔ)備積累而創(chuàng)造的，但卻被限制在中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)。
揮之不去的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲壓力
一方面，央行外匯儲(chǔ)備的積累創(chuàng)造了大量的國(guó)內(nèi)流動(dòng)性，同時(shí)金融投資的需求又很強(qiáng)勁。另一方面，國(guó)內(nèi)資本市場(chǎng)不夠發(fā)達(dá)，證券化投資產(chǎn)品不足。在中國(guó)，85% 的金融中介是通過(guò)銀行系統(tǒng)完成的，證券市場(chǎng)只占10%，而債券市場(chǎng)基本就不存在。
資本市場(chǎng)供需不平衡的趨勢(shì)是中國(guó)股市估值偏高的一個(gè)重要原因。作為一個(gè)貼現(xiàn)機(jī)制，目前規(guī)模尚小的中國(guó)股市背負(fù)了為整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的“光明未來(lái)”進(jìn)行定價(jià)的“沉重包袱”，因此很容易在短期內(nèi)滋生泡沫，尤其是在投資者的情緒變得亢奮之時(shí)。
中國(guó)的高儲(chǔ)蓄是一個(gè)人口代際現(xiàn)象
高儲(chǔ)蓄率主要是中國(guó)的計(jì)劃生育政策下的人口結(jié)構(gòu)、經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)背景下家庭消費(fèi)習(xí)慣改變緩慢等長(zhǎng)期因素作用的結(jié)果。
“計(jì)劃生育政策”以人為的形式在較短時(shí)間內(nèi)大幅降低了中國(guó)的人口撫養(yǎng)比。在其他國(guó)家，老齡化是一個(gè)自然過(guò)程。盡管家庭收入隨著整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)而迅速增加，但個(gè)人消費(fèi)習(xí)慣可能需要好幾年甚至好幾十年才能改變。這是為什么“文化因素”常常被認(rèn)為是高儲(chǔ)蓄率的原因。
國(guó)有企業(yè)缺乏社會(huì)保障和公司治理等其他結(jié)構(gòu)性因素，雖然對(duì)中國(guó)的高儲(chǔ)蓄率也有所貢獻(xiàn)，但它們要么影響甚微，要么只是上述長(zhǎng)期影響因素的間接反應(yīng)。例如，私人企業(yè)占中國(guó)工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)的70%以上，而私人企業(yè)的儲(chǔ)蓄行為實(shí)際上是個(gè)人儲(chǔ)蓄行為的一種延伸。
總體情況：資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲壓力成為常態(tài)
我們認(rèn)為，在“過(guò)度儲(chǔ)蓄優(yōu)點(diǎn)”的影響下，中國(guó)已經(jīng)并可能繼續(xù)保持高增長(zhǎng)、低通脹，而且只要繼續(xù)保持高儲(chǔ)蓄率，就足以抵御來(lái)自外部的沖擊。在這一背景下， 揮之不去的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲壓力可能成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的一個(gè)常態(tài)，而非特例，從而成為未來(lái)幾年政策制定者面臨的、也是經(jīng)?；暮暧^經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)。
首要政策重點(diǎn)：降低杠桿率同時(shí)著眼于限度地防范系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
在中國(guó)這樣“過(guò)度儲(chǔ)蓄”的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，管理資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的持續(xù)上漲壓力，可能在未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)成為比控制傳統(tǒng)的CPI上漲或促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)更重要的政策目標(biāo)。不過(guò)，由 于傳統(tǒng)的貨幣政策工具并非最合適的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲管理工具，所以當(dāng)前的緊迫任務(wù)是限度地防范資產(chǎn)價(jià)格破裂帶來(lái)的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在低杠桿率下，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格破裂 造成的損失要小得多。
“降低杠桿率”很可能成為經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的一個(gè)重要政策目標(biāo)。因此，將有必要實(shí)施嚴(yán)格的房貸抵押制度，嚴(yán)格限制股票市場(chǎng)的保證金交易，嚴(yán)格執(zhí)行銀行資本充足率要求。
此外，防止對(duì)人民幣匯率的單邊下注也十分重要，因?yàn)閺?qiáng)烈的人民幣升值預(yù)期將導(dǎo)致熱錢的涌入，這是境外投機(jī)者使用的另一種杠桿形式。同樣，有必要非對(duì)稱開放資本賬戶控制，引導(dǎo)資本流出，控制資本流入。
通過(guò)合格國(guó)內(nèi)機(jī)構(gòu)投資者(QDII)以及合格國(guó)內(nèi)散戶投資者(QDRI)的投資活動(dòng)，開放對(duì)外資本賬戶，當(dāng)有助于滿足國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄者直接擁有境外金融資產(chǎn)的 需求，從而放緩中央銀行外匯儲(chǔ)備積累及國(guó)內(nèi)流動(dòng)性創(chuàng)造的速度。不過(guò)，對(duì)資本流入(特別是短期投資)的控制應(yīng)當(dāng)繼續(xù)維持或逐步取消。否則資本的流入將會(huì)對(duì)國(guó) 內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄導(dǎo)致的嚴(yán)重資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲壓力起到推波助瀾的作用，并使政策博弈進(jìn)一步復(fù)雜化。
結(jié)構(gòu)性改革日程：放松價(jià)格管制，發(fā)展資本市場(chǎng)
在宏觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)得到控制之后，應(yīng)重點(diǎn)采取有助于提升投資質(zhì)量的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革措施。盡管“過(guò)度儲(chǔ)蓄”有助于產(chǎn)生高增長(zhǎng)、低通脹等重要數(shù)據(jù)，但“過(guò)度 儲(chǔ)蓄”所創(chuàng)造的資本應(yīng)當(dāng)?shù)玫接行У呐渲?。因此，放松?duì)利率、能源價(jià)格及其他重要自然資源商品價(jià)格的管制已經(jīng)不容拖延了。
同時(shí)，政府應(yīng)進(jìn)一步加快國(guó)內(nèi)資本市場(chǎng)(包括股市和固定收益證券市場(chǎng))，增加證券化產(chǎn)品的供應(yīng)以滿足不斷增長(zhǎng)的投資機(jī)會(huì)需求，緩解資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲的壓力。
促進(jìn)消費(fèi)措施效果如何?
自從危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來(lái)，通過(guò)降低儲(chǔ)蓄率促進(jìn)國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)已經(jīng)成為一個(gè)政策重點(diǎn)。不過(guò)，如果中國(guó)的高儲(chǔ)蓄率是一個(gè)人口代際現(xiàn)象，在我們看來(lái)，實(shí)質(zhì)降低國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄率的 政策空間將十分有限。尤其是加強(qiáng)社會(huì)保障系統(tǒng)以及國(guó)有企業(yè)的公司治理可能有助于降低家庭儲(chǔ)蓄率，但不會(huì)有效降低國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄率。
任何旨在促進(jìn)消費(fèi)的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革可能都會(huì)比較溫和，效果也將十分有限。如果采取激進(jìn)的政策措施強(qiáng)行降低儲(chǔ)蓄率，而無(wú)視其人口代際本質(zhì)，則將適得其反，使得福利體系過(guò)于慷慨，超過(guò)中國(guó)這樣人均收入仍然很低的國(guó)家的承受能力。
事實(shí)上，我們認(rèn)為，就這一問(wèn)題討論的任何相關(guān)政策建議都應(yīng)被視為針對(duì)收入差距而采取的措施，而非著眼于增加整體消費(fèi)水平。