china daily 雙語新聞：中遠(yuǎn)怎樣續(xù)航？
Lex專欄：中遠(yuǎn)怎樣“續(xù)航”？《金融時報》雙語
Sometimes the important thing is what is not said. When Cosco warned that net losses for 2012 would be “significant”, it should not have come as a huge surprise. The world’s largest operator of dry bulk ships by capacity still suffers from rock-bottom freight rates. It was the absence of a solution for its woes that knocked 5 per cent off Cosco’s shares yesterday. The Tianjin-based operator dual-listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong now faces a potential suspension of its shares in the former if it records a third-consecutive year of losses. Cosco’s losses for 2012 add to an Rmb10bn ($1.7bn) loss in 2011 – the shipping industry’s largest ever. It needs to find a route back to profit.
有時候字里行間隱藏著更重要的內(nèi)容。當(dāng)中遠(yuǎn)(Cosco)警告2012年將出現(xiàn)“大幅”虧損時，市場不應(yīng)感到意外。全球運能的干散貨船舶運營商仍在承受著運費低迷之苦。難以找到出路的中遠(yuǎn)，昨日股價大跌5%。這家總部位于天津、在上海和香港兩地上市的航運企業(yè)，如果連續(xù)第三年出現(xiàn)虧損，將面臨在上海股市被停牌的命運。中遠(yuǎn)在2012年虧損之前，在2011年已經(jīng)遭受100億元人民幣 （合17億美元）虧損——這是航運業(yè)有史以來的虧損。該公司需要找到扭虧為盈的路徑。
Yet it still suffers from a poor bet it made in 2008 that charter costs would rise further. It went long on forward freight agreements when the Baltic Dry Index was climbing above 7,000. But the financial crisis wiped out freight demand and the BDI tumbled to just 700 by the end of 2008. That meant that losses flooded in to Cosco. Dry bulk containers now contribute less than a fifth of its total revenues, down from over a half five years ago. Yet oversupply in container shipping means that this segment is unable to offset losses elsewhere.
然而，中遠(yuǎn)仍在承受2008年判斷失誤的后果，當(dāng)時該公司押注租船費用將進一步上漲。于是，在波羅的海干散貨運價指數(shù)(Baltic Dry Index, BDI)升至7000點上方時，該公司持有遠(yuǎn)期運費協(xié)議(FFA)多頭頭寸。可是，隨即而來的金融危機沉重打擊貨運需求，至2008年底，BDI已暴跌至僅僅700點。中遠(yuǎn)因此遭受慘重虧損。如今，干散貨業(yè)務(wù)在該公司總營收中的比重不到五分之一，而5年前占比在一半以上。但是，集裝箱航運領(lǐng)域的供應(yīng)過剩意味著，這塊業(yè)務(wù)無法抵消其它領(lǐng)域的虧損。
Cosco needs the BDI to average 1,500 to break even. Yet this looks a long way off. The seasonal rally that comes at the end of the year as China’s iron ore traders restock has already run out of steam, sending the index back to 800. Cosco needs other options. It could sell some of its vessels to its state-owned parent and then lease them. CLSA estimates that its fleet could fetch more than $6bn at second-hand rates, which means that it would need to liquidate very little to cover 2013 losses. Selling assets at the very bottom of the cycle is hardly a good move in the long term. But Cosco is running out of options to stay afloat.
中遠(yuǎn)需要BDI平均達(dá)到1500點才能盈虧相抵。但這個前景貌似相當(dāng)遙遠(yuǎn)。年底出現(xiàn)的季節(jié)性漲勢（得益于中國鐵礦石交易商補充庫存的活動）已經(jīng)失去動力，使該指數(shù)跌回800點。中遠(yuǎn)需要其它選擇。該公司可以向國有母公司出售一些船舶，然后租用這些船舶。據(jù)里昂證券(CLSA)估計，按二手價格計算，中遠(yuǎn)的船隊可以賣到60多億美元，這意味著該公司只需要賣掉少量船舶，就能覆蓋2013年虧損。在周期谷底出售資產(chǎn)，從遠(yuǎn)期而言肯定不是明智舉動。但是中遠(yuǎn)的“續(xù)航”選擇已經(jīng)不多。
Lex專欄：中遠(yuǎn)怎樣“續(xù)航”？《金融時報》雙語
Sometimes the important thing is what is not said. When Cosco warned that net losses for 2012 would be “significant”, it should not have come as a huge surprise. The world’s largest operator of dry bulk ships by capacity still suffers from rock-bottom freight rates. It was the absence of a solution for its woes that knocked 5 per cent off Cosco’s shares yesterday. The Tianjin-based operator dual-listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong now faces a potential suspension of its shares in the former if it records a third-consecutive year of losses. Cosco’s losses for 2012 add to an Rmb10bn ($1.7bn) loss in 2011 – the shipping industry’s largest ever. It needs to find a route back to profit.
有時候字里行間隱藏著更重要的內(nèi)容。當(dāng)中遠(yuǎn)(Cosco)警告2012年將出現(xiàn)“大幅”虧損時，市場不應(yīng)感到意外。全球運能的干散貨船舶運營商仍在承受著運費低迷之苦。難以找到出路的中遠(yuǎn)，昨日股價大跌5%。這家總部位于天津、在上海和香港兩地上市的航運企業(yè)，如果連續(xù)第三年出現(xiàn)虧損，將面臨在上海股市被停牌的命運。中遠(yuǎn)在2012年虧損之前，在2011年已經(jīng)遭受100億元人民幣 （合17億美元）虧損——這是航運業(yè)有史以來的虧損。該公司需要找到扭虧為盈的路徑。
Yet it still suffers from a poor bet it made in 2008 that charter costs would rise further. It went long on forward freight agreements when the Baltic Dry Index was climbing above 7,000. But the financial crisis wiped out freight demand and the BDI tumbled to just 700 by the end of 2008. That meant that losses flooded in to Cosco. Dry bulk containers now contribute less than a fifth of its total revenues, down from over a half five years ago. Yet oversupply in container shipping means that this segment is unable to offset losses elsewhere.
然而，中遠(yuǎn)仍在承受2008年判斷失誤的后果，當(dāng)時該公司押注租船費用將進一步上漲。于是，在波羅的海干散貨運價指數(shù)(Baltic Dry Index, BDI)升至7000點上方時，該公司持有遠(yuǎn)期運費協(xié)議(FFA)多頭頭寸。可是，隨即而來的金融危機沉重打擊貨運需求，至2008年底，BDI已暴跌至僅僅700點。中遠(yuǎn)因此遭受慘重虧損。如今，干散貨業(yè)務(wù)在該公司總營收中的比重不到五分之一，而5年前占比在一半以上。但是，集裝箱航運領(lǐng)域的供應(yīng)過剩意味著，這塊業(yè)務(wù)無法抵消其它領(lǐng)域的虧損。
Cosco needs the BDI to average 1,500 to break even. Yet this looks a long way off. The seasonal rally that comes at the end of the year as China’s iron ore traders restock has already run out of steam, sending the index back to 800. Cosco needs other options. It could sell some of its vessels to its state-owned parent and then lease them. CLSA estimates that its fleet could fetch more than $6bn at second-hand rates, which means that it would need to liquidate very little to cover 2013 losses. Selling assets at the very bottom of the cycle is hardly a good move in the long term. But Cosco is running out of options to stay afloat.
中遠(yuǎn)需要BDI平均達(dá)到1500點才能盈虧相抵。但這個前景貌似相當(dāng)遙遠(yuǎn)。年底出現(xiàn)的季節(jié)性漲勢（得益于中國鐵礦石交易商補充庫存的活動）已經(jīng)失去動力，使該指數(shù)跌回800點。中遠(yuǎn)需要其它選擇。該公司可以向國有母公司出售一些船舶，然后租用這些船舶。據(jù)里昂證券(CLSA)估計，按二手價格計算，中遠(yuǎn)的船隊可以賣到60多億美元，這意味著該公司只需要賣掉少量船舶，就能覆蓋2013年虧損。在周期谷底出售資產(chǎn)，從遠(yuǎn)期而言肯定不是明智舉動。但是中遠(yuǎn)的“續(xù)航”選擇已經(jīng)不多。