china daily 雙語新聞:資金大轉(zhuǎn)向真的到來了嗎

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英語資源頻道為大家整理的china daily 雙語新聞:資金大轉(zhuǎn)向真的到來了嗎,供大家學(xué)習(xí)參考:)
    As 2013 gets under way, one of the biggest questions in financial markets is again bubbling: Will this finally be the year that investors dump bonds and return to stocks?
    邁入2013年,金融市場又開始琢磨的一個(gè)大問題是:今年投資者到底會(huì)不會(huì)拋棄債券、重返股市呢?
    For years, market watchers have called for what has become known as the 'great rotation' out of bonds and into stocks. And for years they have been wrong.
    市場觀察人士年復(fù)一年地宣稱著這種從債市向股市的所謂資金“大轉(zhuǎn)向”(Great Rotation)的到來,但每次他們都落空了。
    Now, some signs are indicating that maybe, possibly, the tide is beginning to reverse.
    現(xiàn)在,有些跡象顯示,這次,這種大轉(zhuǎn)向或許、可能真的開始到來了。
    Stocks started 2013 with a bang. For the week ended Wednesday, U.S. investors plowed $18 billion into stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, the largest one-week total since June 2008, before the worst of the financial crisis hit.
    2013年伊始,股市表現(xiàn)不凡。截至1月9日周三的當(dāng)周,美國投資者合計(jì)向股票型共同基金和交易型開放式指數(shù)基金(ETF)投入了180億美元,創(chuàng)2008年6月(金融危機(jī)高潮到來前)以來單周之。
    'That caught people's attention,' says Matthew Lemieux, senior research analyst at Lipper.
    理柏(Lipper)的高級分析師馬修·勒米厄(Matthew Lemieux)稱:“這引起了大家的注意?!?BR>    That followed a growing exodus from U.S. Treasury funds. Since late June, investors have pulled $6 billion from the group, including $1.1 billion in the week ending Wednesday.
    在此之前,資金已從美國國債開始撤退。自2012年6月末以來,投資者從美國國債市場共計(jì)撤出了60億美元的資金,包括截至1月9日周三當(dāng)周的11億美元。
    The moves run counter to a trend that began in 2008, with investors since then pulling money out of stocks and putting $1.1 trillion into taxable government, international and corporate bonds.
    這確實(shí)與始自2008年的趨勢相背離。自2008年起,投資者大舉撤離股市,將1.1萬億美元投入到課稅的政府債券、國際債券和企業(yè)債券上。
    Fueling expectations that a longer-term shift out of bonds and into stocks may finally take place is a growing nervousness that bond yields are dangerously low. As 2012 drew to a close, U.S. Treasury yields weren't far from record lows thanks to the Federal Reserve's unprecedented effort to pump money into the financial system through bond purchases. That sent prices up, and yields down.
    對于從債券到股市的資金更長期大轉(zhuǎn)移的預(yù)期愈加濃厚,反映出債券收益率跌至極低水平所引發(fā)的緊張情緒。由于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)采取了前所未有的大規(guī)模行動(dòng),通過購買債券向金融系統(tǒng)注入巨資,導(dǎo)致債券價(jià)格上漲、收益率下跌。截至2012年末,美國國債收益率已經(jīng)逼近歷史低水平。
    But, due to a quirk of bond math, losses are exaggerated when yields are low. That risk has been brought into sharp relief since the start of 2013. In just three trading days, long-term Treasurys lost 3.07% in value, more than wiping out the 3% coupon payment they will deliver in 2013, according to Barclays.
    但是,由于債券投資邏輯的特殊性,收益率低會(huì)導(dǎo)致虧損的擴(kuò)大。進(jìn)入2013年,該風(fēng)險(xiǎn)突然得到了很大的緩解。據(jù)巴克萊(Barclays)表示,在年初的僅僅三個(gè)交易日內(nèi),長期美國國債的價(jià)格就下跌了3.07%,比2013年3%的應(yīng)付票面利率還要多。
    On Jan. 4, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose to 1.914%, an eight-month high. Some worry it could quickly rise above 2.25%, which would cause sizable losses. The 10-year Treasury yielded 1.871% as of late Friday, up from 1.759% at the end of the year.
    1月4日,基準(zhǔn)10年期美國國債的收益率升至1.914%,創(chuàng)八個(gè)月新高。有人擔(dān)心其將迅速突破2.25%,引發(fā)大規(guī)模的虧損。1月11日周五尾盤,10年期美國國債收益率報(bào)1.871%,高于2012年末的1.759%。
    Meanwhile, yields on both investment grade and riskier junk bonds hit record lows last week. Against this backdrop, many observers are saying it is only a matter of time before investors seek out stocks. They note that shares of dividend-paying companies are often providing higher yields than the company's bonds. With high-quality bonds offering yields below that of the rate of inflation, many investors worry that they aren't being compensated enough for the risks of holding them.
    與此同時(shí),投資級和垃圾級債券的收益率在1月11日當(dāng)周雙雙創(chuàng)出紀(jì)錄新低。有鑒于此,很多觀察人士都開始宣稱,現(xiàn)在投資者涌向股市只是早晚的事了。他們指出,很多派息上市公司的股票收益率都高于其公司債的收益率。優(yōu)質(zhì)債券的收益率低于通脹率,很多投資者擔(dān)心持有這類債券的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)超過了應(yīng)有的回報(bào)。
    'I think the 'great rotation' has already started in terms of flows and returns,' says Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
    美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)首席投資策略師邁克爾·哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)說:“我認(rèn)為就資金流向和回報(bào)情況來看,‘大轉(zhuǎn)向’已經(jīng)開始了。”
    Mr. Hartnett is watching for three indicators to determine whether the shift will continue: a falling unemployment rate, a continued drop in returns from fixed-income investments, and a growing belief among investors that the Federal Reserve may end its bond-buying program. These factors could all make Treasurys seem much less attractive.
    哈特尼特通過三個(gè)指標(biāo)來判斷這種轉(zhuǎn)移趨勢是否將會(huì)持續(xù):失業(yè)率的持續(xù)下降,固定收益投資品種回報(bào)率的繼續(xù)下跌,以及投資者對于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能結(jié)束債券購買計(jì)劃的日益堅(jiān)信。這三項(xiàng)指標(biāo)均可令美國國債的吸引力大大減弱。
    'Now all we are waiting to see is collaboration from both the economy and policy makers,' Mr. Hartnett says.
    哈特尼特說:“現(xiàn)在我們都在等待經(jīng)濟(jì)走向和決策者行動(dòng)能夠出現(xiàn)相互呼應(yīng)的局面?!?BR>    Other Wall Street firms have also taken note. In a report titled 'The Search for Yield--Equity Opportunities,' released early this month, Goldman Sachs analysts made the case for buying dividend stocks instead of bonds.
    其他華爾街公司也注意到這個(gè)問題。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析師在月初發(fā)表的題為《尋找收益率──股票機(jī)會(huì)》(The Search for Yield--Equity Opportunities)的報(bào)告中,也建議購買派息股票,而非債券。
    Corporate America, Goldman argues, is flush with cash and pays a dividend yield of 2.2%, compared with a 1.6% yield for the average triple-A rated company bond.
    高盛方面認(rèn)為,美國企業(yè)界手中現(xiàn)金充裕,支付的股息收益率高達(dá)2.2%,而AAA級公司債的平均收益率只有1.6%。
    Goldman noted that investors in Treasury and investment-grade corporate bonds stand to lose a lot of money should interest rates ratchet higher. With rates at such low levels, it wouldn't take much of a move to cause losses, analysts say.
    高盛指出,如果利率進(jìn)一步走高,那么美國國債和投資級企業(yè)債的投資者就會(huì)蒙受巨額損失。分析師表示,目前利率水平很低,只要一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)的上升就很容易引發(fā)虧損。
    Analysts on average expect 10-year Treasury yields to rise to 2.15%. That would indicate a 2.5% drop in price. If yields moved up to 2.5%, which some say is possible, the price of the bond would fall by 5.5%. Many investors in Treasurys and investment-grade corporate bonds say they are closely eyeing 2.25% as a threshold that may trigger selling.
    分析師的平均預(yù)期為,10年期美國國債收益率將升至2.15%。這意味著價(jià)格將下滑2.5%。而如果像部分分析師認(rèn)為的那樣,收益率升至2.5%,那價(jià)格就會(huì)下跌5.5%。美國國債及投資級公司債的很多投資者都表示,他們密切關(guān)注著2.25%,這個(gè)關(guān)口可能觸發(fā)拋盤。
    Last week's eye-catching $18 billion move into stock funds included $9 billion heading into U.S. stock mutual funds, the largest take since September. More notably, traditional mutual funds--in other words, not ETFs--attracted $4 billion in just the one week, the first positive week for the group since mid-July.
    在截至1月9日當(dāng)周備受矚目的流入股票型基金的180億美元巨額資金中,包括流入美國股票型共同基金的90億美元,這也創(chuàng)出9月以來的單周規(guī)模之。更為引人注目的是,傳統(tǒng)共同基金(即非ETF基金)僅僅一周就吸引到40億美元的資金流入,而且是7月中旬以來的首次呈單周凈流入。
    However, things get a bit murkier from there. That one-week shift into U.S. stocks is just a drop in the bucket compared with the $44 billion that drained out in the previous 24 weeks.
    但往后來看,情況還是很不明朗。相對于此前24周440億美元的資金流出,上述單周流入美國股市的資金規(guī)模仍顯得相當(dāng)微不足道。
    In addition, overall, bond funds continued their record-shattering haul. During the week ended last Wednesday, bond mutual funds and ETFs attracted $4.2 billion, Lipper says.
    此外,總體來看,債券型基金創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的旅程似乎并未結(jié)束。據(jù)理柏表示,截至1月9日的當(dāng)周,債券型共同基金和ETF共吸引到42億美元的資金流入。
    And market observers, including Mr. Lemieux of Lipper, say unusual factors were at work late last year. Many investors stepped to the sidelines late last year as they worried about the year-end budget debate in Washington and its possible effect on the economy. Once that was resolved, they likely moved back into stocks in January.
    包括理柏高級分析師勒米厄在內(nèi)的一些市場觀察人士也表示,去年末有些異常因素發(fā)揮了作用。因?yàn)閾?dān)心當(dāng)時(shí)華盛頓方面的預(yù)算之爭及其對經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在影響,很多投資者在年末那段時(shí)間選擇了離常而當(dāng)預(yù)算問題塵埃落定后,他們可能又于1月份返回了股市。
    At the same time, the last four years have started off with investors shifting money into U.S. stocks only to see that trend reverse in each of those years.
    況且,過去四年都是類似的情形:年初時(shí)投資者向美國股市轉(zhuǎn)移,其后趨勢則發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn)。
    Many market watchers also note that continued wrangling in Washington, particularly over whether to raise the country's borrowing limit, could make some investors leery of moving out of Treasurys, seen as a haven in times of turmoil, and into stocks.
    很多市場觀察人士還指出,美國兩黨不停的角力,尤其是在是否提高美國債務(wù)上限這個(gè)問題上的紛爭,會(huì)使一些投資者對于撤出國債市場投向股票市場的做法心存疑慮,國債可是向來都被視為動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期的避風(fēng)港的。
    'The debt-ceiling debate is still out there,' says John Bender, head of U.S. fixed income at Legal & General Investment Management America. He says that will keep Treasurys strong for the first quarter of the year.
    Legal & General Investment Management America美國固定收益部主管約翰·本德(John Bender)表示,關(guān)于債務(wù)上限的爭辯仍在持續(xù),這會(huì)令美國國債在今年第一季度繼續(xù)保持強(qiáng)勢。
    And most analysts say that even if investors do continue to lighten up on Treasurys, and possibly investment-grade bonds, 2013 probably won't see a flood of money leaving those funds.
    大部分分析師均表示,即便投資者繼續(xù)減持美國國債、甚至投資級公司債,2013年這類投資基金也不太可能發(fā)生大規(guī)模資金撤離的情況。
    Still, many fund managers say they are paying close attention.
    但很多基金經(jīng)理仍表示,他們會(huì)密切關(guān)注有關(guān)動(dòng)向。
    'This year could be somewhat a transition year,' says Dan Heckman, senior fixed-income strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees $110 billion in assets.
    資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模達(dá)1100億美元的美國銀行財(cái)富管理公司(U.S. Bank Wealth Management)的高級固定收益策略師丹·赫克曼(Dan Heckman)說:“今年在某種程度上可能成為一個(gè)過渡年?!?