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1984年儲(chǔ)貸危機(jī)期間，我們仔細(xì)研究了每一個(gè)破產(chǎn)案例。尋找其中的共同點(diǎn)。
During the savings and loan debacle in 1984,we looked at every single failure,and we looked for common characteristics,
我們發(fā)現(xiàn)這一套路在每個(gè)欺詐案例中都存在。
And we discovered this recipe was common to each of these frauds.
換言之，驗(yàn)尸官能夠找到這些東西。因?yàn)檫@是致命的“毒方”不僅會(huì)毀掉銀行，也會(huì)毀掉我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)。
In other words, a coroner could find these things because this is a fatal recipe that will destroy the banks as well as the economy.
這也正是可以阻止這場危機(jī)發(fā)生的東西，這一危機(jī)僅在經(jīng)濟(jì)的私人部門就讓我們損失11萬億。
And it also turns out to be precisely what could have stopped this crisis, the one that cost us 11 trillion dollars just in the household sector.
丟掉1000萬個(gè)工作崗位，如果我們能夠運(yùn)用這一固定套路從大面積的管理欺詐行為中吸取教訓(xùn)，我們就可以輕而易舉地避免這場危機(jī)的發(fā)生。
Yhat cost us 10 million jobs, was the easiest financial crisis by far to have avoided completely if we had simply learned the lessons of epidemics of control fraud,particularly using this recipe.
現(xiàn)在我們來看看這場危機(jī)以及導(dǎo)致它發(fā)生的兩種大面積借貸欺詐行為：估價(jià)欺詐和欺騙性貸款。
So let's go to this crisis, and the two huge epidemics of loan origination fraud that drove the crisis appraisal fraud and liar's loans.
研究這兩者，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)：第一，對于這些欺詐行為，我們接到的預(yù)警信號非常之早。
and what we're going to see in looking at both of these is we got warnings that were incredibly early about these frauds.
第二，我們可以輕而易舉地利用這些預(yù)警信號采取措施，因?yàn)樵缭趦?chǔ)貸危機(jī)時(shí)期，我們就知道了如何應(yīng)對，從而避免危機(jī)的發(fā)生。
We got warnings that we could have taken advantage of easily,because back in the savings and loan debacle,we had figured out how to respond and prevent these crises.
第三，這些預(yù)警信號確切不疑。
And three, the warnings were unambiguous.
它們清楚地表明了大面積的會(huì)計(jì)管理欺詐行為正在升級。
They were obvious that what was going on was an epidemic of accounting control fraud building up.
我們先來看估價(jià)欺詐
Let's take appraisal fraud first.
簡單地說，估價(jià)欺詐就是夸大用作貸款擔(dān)保的房屋的價(jià)值。
This is simply where you inflate the value of the home that is being pledged as security for the loan.
在2000年，也就是安然破產(chǎn)一年多前，有節(jié)操的估價(jià)師聚在一起，起草了一份正式的請?jiān)笗Ｒ舐?lián)邦政府采取措施，
In 2000, the year 2000,that is over a year before Enron fails, by the way,the honest appraisers got together a formal petition begging the federal government to act.
要求行業(yè)自身采取措施，制止這種大面積的估價(jià)欺詐行為。
And the industry to act,to stop this epidemic of appraisal fraud.
這些估價(jià)師解釋問題是如何發(fā)生的：銀行要求估價(jià)師弄虛作假夸大估值。
And the appraisers explained how it was occurring,that banks were demanding that appraisers inflate the appraisal,
一旦估價(jià)師拒絕配合，銀行就把這些有節(jié)操的估價(jià)師拉入黑名單，不再雇傭他們。
and that if the appraisers refused to do so,they, the banks, would blacklist honest appraisers and refuse to use them.
在儲(chǔ)貸危機(jī)期間，我們就遇到過這種情況，我們知道這種欺詐行為的罪魁禍?zhǔn)拙褪墙璺健?BR> Now, we've seen this before in the savings and loan debacle,and we know that this kind of fraud can only originate from the lenders.
有節(jié)操的借方絕對不會(huì)為估值灌水，因?yàn)榫芙^灌水才是防止損失的上策。
and that no honest lender would ever inflate the appraisal,because it's the great protection against loss.
所以說，預(yù)警信號早在2000年就已出現(xiàn)。
So this was an incredibly early warning, 2000.
1984年儲(chǔ)貸危機(jī)期間，我們仔細(xì)研究了每一個(gè)破產(chǎn)案例。尋找其中的共同點(diǎn)。
During the savings and loan debacle in 1984,we looked at every single failure,and we looked for common characteristics,
我們發(fā)現(xiàn)這一套路在每個(gè)欺詐案例中都存在。
And we discovered this recipe was common to each of these frauds.
換言之，驗(yàn)尸官能夠找到這些東西。因?yàn)檫@是致命的“毒方”不僅會(huì)毀掉銀行，也會(huì)毀掉我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)。
In other words, a coroner could find these things because this is a fatal recipe that will destroy the banks as well as the economy.
這也正是可以阻止這場危機(jī)發(fā)生的東西，這一危機(jī)僅在經(jīng)濟(jì)的私人部門就讓我們損失11萬億。
And it also turns out to be precisely what could have stopped this crisis, the one that cost us 11 trillion dollars just in the household sector.
丟掉1000萬個(gè)工作崗位，如果我們能夠運(yùn)用這一固定套路從大面積的管理欺詐行為中吸取教訓(xùn)，我們就可以輕而易舉地避免這場危機(jī)的發(fā)生。
Yhat cost us 10 million jobs, was the easiest financial crisis by far to have avoided completely if we had simply learned the lessons of epidemics of control fraud,particularly using this recipe.
現(xiàn)在我們來看看這場危機(jī)以及導(dǎo)致它發(fā)生的兩種大面積借貸欺詐行為：估價(jià)欺詐和欺騙性貸款。
So let's go to this crisis, and the two huge epidemics of loan origination fraud that drove the crisis appraisal fraud and liar's loans.
研究這兩者，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)：第一，對于這些欺詐行為，我們接到的預(yù)警信號非常之早。
and what we're going to see in looking at both of these is we got warnings that were incredibly early about these frauds.
第二，我們可以輕而易舉地利用這些預(yù)警信號采取措施，因?yàn)樵缭趦?chǔ)貸危機(jī)時(shí)期，我們就知道了如何應(yīng)對，從而避免危機(jī)的發(fā)生。
We got warnings that we could have taken advantage of easily,because back in the savings and loan debacle,we had figured out how to respond and prevent these crises.
第三，這些預(yù)警信號確切不疑。
And three, the warnings were unambiguous.
它們清楚地表明了大面積的會(huì)計(jì)管理欺詐行為正在升級。
They were obvious that what was going on was an epidemic of accounting control fraud building up.
我們先來看估價(jià)欺詐
Let's take appraisal fraud first.
簡單地說，估價(jià)欺詐就是夸大用作貸款擔(dān)保的房屋的價(jià)值。
This is simply where you inflate the value of the home that is being pledged as security for the loan.
在2000年，也就是安然破產(chǎn)一年多前，有節(jié)操的估價(jià)師聚在一起，起草了一份正式的請?jiān)笗Ｒ舐?lián)邦政府采取措施，
In 2000, the year 2000,that is over a year before Enron fails, by the way,the honest appraisers got together a formal petition begging the federal government to act.
要求行業(yè)自身采取措施，制止這種大面積的估價(jià)欺詐行為。
And the industry to act,to stop this epidemic of appraisal fraud.
這些估價(jià)師解釋問題是如何發(fā)生的：銀行要求估價(jià)師弄虛作假夸大估值。
And the appraisers explained how it was occurring,that banks were demanding that appraisers inflate the appraisal,
一旦估價(jià)師拒絕配合，銀行就把這些有節(jié)操的估價(jià)師拉入黑名單，不再雇傭他們。
and that if the appraisers refused to do so,they, the banks, would blacklist honest appraisers and refuse to use them.
在儲(chǔ)貸危機(jī)期間，我們就遇到過這種情況，我們知道這種欺詐行為的罪魁禍?zhǔn)拙褪墙璺健?BR> Now, we've seen this before in the savings and loan debacle,and we know that this kind of fraud can only originate from the lenders.
有節(jié)操的借方絕對不會(huì)為估值灌水，因?yàn)榫芙^灌水才是防止損失的上策。
and that no honest lender would ever inflate the appraisal,because it's the great protection against loss.
所以說，預(yù)警信號早在2000年就已出現(xiàn)。
So this was an incredibly early warning, 2000.