人口增長(zhǎng)Population Growth

The growth of population during the past few centuries is no proof that population will continue to grow straight upward toward infinity and doom. On the contrary， demographic history offers evidence that population growth has not been at all constant. According to paleoecologist Edward Deevey， the past million years show three momentous changes. The first， a rapid increase in population around one m illion B. C.， followed the innovations of tool making and tool using. But when the new power from the use of tools has been exploited， the rate of world population growth fell and became almost stable. The next rapid jump in population started perhaps 10，000 years ago， when mankind began to keep herds， plow and plant the earth. Once again when initial productivity gains had been absorbed， the rate of population growth abated. These two episodes suggest that the third great change， the present rapid growth， which began in the West between 250 and 350 years ago， may also slow down when， or if， technology begins to yield fewer innovations. Of course， the current knowledge revolution may continue without foreseeable end. Either way - contrary to popular belief in constant geometric growth - population can be expected in the long run to adjust to productivity. And when one takes this view， population growth is seen to represent economic progress and human triumph rather than social failure.
     人口增長(zhǎng)
     以往幾個(gè)世紀(jì)人口的增長(zhǎng)并不能證明人口會(huì)無(wú)限地直線向上增長(zhǎng)直到毀滅的地步。 相反地，人口統(tǒng)計(jì)史料證明人口的增長(zhǎng)完全不是穩(wěn)定的。 古生態(tài)學(xué)家愛(ài)德華。狄維認(rèn)為，在過(guò)去100萬(wàn)年間出現(xiàn)過(guò)3次重大的變動(dòng)。 第一次在公元前100萬(wàn)年左右，隨著在工具的制作和使用上的革新而出現(xiàn)人口迅速增長(zhǎng)。 但當(dāng)工具的使用所產(chǎn)生的新動(dòng)力被充分利用以后，世界人口增長(zhǎng)率下降并且趨于穩(wěn)定。 第二次人口劇增大約始于人類開(kāi)始蓄畜、墾耕的10，000年前。 一旦最初的生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)被吸收殆盡，人口的增長(zhǎng)再次衰落。 以上兩段說(shuō)明，若技術(shù)革新的成果開(kāi)始減少，從250到350年前就在西方開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)的并且目前還在繼續(xù)的人口迅速增長(zhǎng)可能也會(huì)放慢。 當(dāng)然，當(dāng)前的知識(shí)革命也許會(huì)持續(xù)下去而無(wú)法預(yù)見(jiàn)其末來(lái)。 無(wú)論如何，與那種認(rèn)為人口以幾何級(jí)數(shù)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的觀點(diǎn)相反，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的觀點(diǎn)來(lái)說(shuō)，人口可望受到生產(chǎn)力的調(diào)節(jié)。 接受了這一觀點(diǎn)，人口的增長(zhǎng)就可以被看成是經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)步和人類勝利的標(biāo)志，而不是社會(huì)衰敗的標(biāo)志。