BEC中級閱讀: 人民幣升值壓力增大

字號:

中國央行一位高層官員表示,由于美國利率不斷下降和和國內(nèi)資金成本日益上升的雙重作用,在加快本幣升值步伐方面,中國面臨越來越大的壓力。
    China is facing increasing pressure to allow its currency to appreciate faster, a senior central bank official says, because of the combination of falling US interest rates and the rising cost of money at home.
    中國人民銀行行長助理易綱在上周末北京舉行的一個論壇上發(fā)表講話,將今年中國五次上調(diào)利率以應對通脹,與美國利率在次貸危機之后所面臨的下行壓力進行了對比。
    Yi Gang, an assistant governor of the People’s Bank of China, speaking at a forum in Beijing at the weekend, contrasted China’s five rate rises this year, to fight inflation, with the downward pressure on US rates in the wake of the subprime crisis.
    《中國證券報》(China Securities Journal)報道稱,易綱表示:“在美聯(lián)儲降息、中國加息的共同作用下,人民幣升值壓力進一步增大?!?BR>    “With the simultaneous influence of the Fed’s rate cuts and China’s rate hike, the pressure for the renminbi to appreciate is further rising,” said Mr Yi, according to the China Securities Journal.
    長時間以來,人民幣升值步伐緩慢,一直是美國抱怨的對象。而最近以來,歐洲政治家們也表示,這個問題扭曲了中國的經(jīng)濟規(guī)模,為出口提供了補貼。
    The slow pace of the currency’s appreciation is the target of longstanding complaints from the US, and more recently Europe, whose politicians say it distorts China’s economy and subsidises exports.
    自2005年7月中國放棄人民幣盯住美元以來,人民幣兌美元的升值幅度僅為10%。同期內(nèi),人民幣兌歐元匯率有所下跌,在貿(mào)易加權(quán)的基礎(chǔ)上,人民幣匯率幾乎沒變。
    The renminbi has risen by only about 10 per cent against the US dollar since China broke its currency’s peg with the greenback in July 2005. Over the same period it has fallen against the euro and barely moved on a trade-weighted basis.
    中國一直通過用人民幣購買進入本國的美元的方式,來抵御升值壓力,之后再通過出售央行票據(jù),將本地資金抽離金融體系,這一過程被稱之為“沖銷”。
    China has been able to resist pressure for appreciation by buying the dollars coming into the country with renminbi, and then draining the local funds out of the system by selling central bank bills, a process known as sterilisation.
    不過,對于中國政府而言,中、美利率的趨同效果,可能使得上述操作成為一種賠錢的做法。
    However, the convergence of US and Chinese interest rates threatens to turn that into a loss-making proposition for Beijing.
    目前美國聯(lián)邦基金利率為4.75%,預計本周可能下調(diào)至少25個基點。3月期票據(jù)利率約為4% 。
    The federal funds rate in the US is now 4.75 per cent, with expectations of a cut of at least 25 basis points this week. Three-month bills are about 4 per cent.
    中國9月初賣出的銀行票據(jù)利率為3.32%,較年初的2.8%有所上升。多數(shù)分析人士預計,未來數(shù)月,中國將至少加息一次,有可能加息兩次。
    China offered 3.32 per cent for bank bills sold in early September, which is up from 2.8 per cent at the start of the year. Most analysts expect Chinese rates to rise at least once and possibly twice in coming months.
    華盛頓彼得森國際經(jīng)濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics) 的尼古拉斯?拉迪表示,如果目前的趨勢持續(xù)下去,數(shù)月之內(nèi),負責管理中國外匯儲備的央行機構(gòu)實際上可能蒙受損失。
    Nicholas Lardy, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said the central bank agency that managed China’s reserves could in a matter of months be actually losing money, if current trends continued.
    “與他們以往的情況相比,那會是一個戲劇性的變化?!?BR>    “That would be a dramatic change from where they have been in the past.”